Gesamtlänge aller Episoden: 21 days 13 hours 49 minutes
This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for the Sahm Rule, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.
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There are plenty of one-off risks at the moment, but it seems like betting on pretty much nothing happening is more popular than ever. Investors are increasingly reaching for a wide variety of derivatives to bet against volatility. Those derivatives include one- and zero-day options which expire in 24 hours or less, and have become a hot button topic on Wall Street...
For years, people have been talking about the end of US dollar dominance or how some other currency could usurp its role around the world. But when it comes to global finance and trade, the dollar is as dominant as ever. Given the size of China's economy, the renminbi is considered one potential challenger. And in fact, China is making real moves on this front. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R...
The past few years have been pretty wild for anyone working in credit, the business of selling and trading corporate debt. First you had the pandemic, which changed working patterns across Wall Street. Then you had a surge in deal activity that had everyone working overtime to meet demand. Meanwhile, private credit's been booming and is now competing with banks' cash cow businesses of selling bonds and leveraged loans...
Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts...
On Jan. 5, the plug door of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 blew out mid-flight, forcing the plane into an emergency landings with a large hole in fuselage. Miraculously, nobody was hurt or killed, but it could have been a disaster. And it was the latest in the persistent string of mechanical and engineering setbacks that have plagued Boeing over the last six years...
In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming...
A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become a top-of-mind concern in defense and corporate circles in recent years. But what would such an attack actually look like? And what would be the economic impact to world if it actually happened? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics...
For anyone interested in investing in the health-care space, JPMorgan's annual Health Care Conference has become one of the most important events of the year. We were not able to get to San Francisco this year, but one of our favorite Odd Lots guests, James van Geelen of CitriniResearch.com, was in attendance...
Harley Bassman, a.k.a. the Convexity Maven, is a legend among bond investors. He worked at Merrill Lynch, where he invented the MOVE Index that measures bond market volatility, and then at Pimco. Now, after a dramatic year for US Treasuries that saw investors hit with massive amounts of volatility only for the 10-year yield to basically wind up where it was at the start of 2023, he sees things starting to get a bit more normal...