Speaker 1: Good morning.
Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Amy Morris. Here are the
Speaker 2: stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: We begin in the Middle East. It is being called
Speaker 3: the worst single day death toll for the Israeli military
Speaker 3: since the war against Hamas began in October. We get
Speaker 3: the latest from Bloomberg's Rosland Matheson.
Speaker 4: There was a serious attack on Israeli soldiers yesterday in
Speaker 4: Gas and we know about twenty one of them have
Speaker 4: been killed. They were looking to have explosives to demolish
Speaker 4: homes in the area when they were fired upon by
Speaker 4: rocket propelled grenade. Will that change the feeling inside Israel
Speaker 4: about the war?
Speaker 3: Probably not, Bloomberg's ros Mathison says. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Speaker 3: Natan Yahoo is saying that the army will fight on
Speaker 3: until quote absolute victory. Meanwhile, three other Israeli soldiers were
Speaker 3: killed in a separate incident in han Yunis, bringing the
Speaker 3: total one day death toll to twenty four. Israel's military
Speaker 3: now says it has that southern Gaza city surrounded.
Speaker 2: Now staying in the Middle East, the US is signaling
Speaker 2: it intends to way just sustained campaign against Hoothy's in Yemen,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg said, Ed Baxter has that story.
Speaker 5: The latest attacks against eight sites hitting underground that the
Speaker 5: US has housed, arms and surveillance systems intelligence. It says
Speaker 5: the US UK operation did major damage and as setback
Speaker 5: Hoothy efforts to carry out attacks on US military and
Speaker 5: shipping of the Red Sea. The joint statement says, let
Speaker 5: us reiterate our warning to Hoothy leadership. We will not
Speaker 5: hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce.
Speaker 5: The Iran backed Hoothy's also issued a statement saying the
Speaker 5: new aggression will not go unpunished. Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio, All.
Speaker 3: Right, Ed, thank you.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 3: Back here in the US, it is all about presidential politics.
Speaker 3: This is primary day in New Hampshire, and both Donald
Speaker 3: Trump and Nikki Haley have been urging their supporters said
Speaker 3: get out and vote.
Speaker 7: Get out of bed and just get to vote, Grab
Speaker 7: your neighbor, grab everybody you gotta you gotta go out
Speaker 7: because we have to win by big more margins.
Speaker 3: For The former president led a rally last night in Laconia,
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, while the former South Carolina governor made her
Speaker 3: case to voters in Salem.
Speaker 8: Chaos follows him, and we can't be a country in
Speaker 8: disarray and have a world on fire and go.
Speaker 9: Through four more years of chaosk because we won't survive it.
Speaker 3: The latest Real Clear Politics average shows Nicki Haley trailing
Speaker 3: Donald Trump by about eighteen percentage points in the Granite State.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Mike Shephard has more from Manchester.
Speaker 10: New Hampshire's famous for surprises, and yet I think that
Speaker 10: we are heading toward what could be another Trump victory
Speaker 10: based on the polling that we're seeing ahead of the
Speaker 10: actual primary kicking off.
Speaker 3: And Bloomberg's Mike Shepherd notes the primary did kick off
Speaker 3: at midnight on the East Coast in tiny Dixville Notch,
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, where all six votes in that tiny village
Speaker 3: went to Nicky Haley. Join us for a special edition
Speaker 3: of Balance of Power Today live from New Hampshire. Joe
Speaker 3: Matthew and Kaylee Lines will bring us the latest all
Speaker 3: day long, starting at noon to two pm Eastern Time,
Speaker 3: then again from the Granite State, and tune into our
Speaker 3: New Hampshire primary special coverage tonight at eight pm Wall
Speaker 3: Street Time. You can hear and watch it all live
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio and television.
Speaker 2: And Nathan turning to the markets now. Futures are a
Speaker 2: little changed today after stocks closed at another record high. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: Bill Gross has some advice for the FED stop winding
Speaker 2: down its balance sheet and start cutting interest rates. We
Speaker 2: spoke yesterday with the co founder of Pimco.
Speaker 6: The Fed should lower interest rates over the next six
Speaker 6: to twelve months. Real interest rates are simply too high.
Speaker 6: The ten year reel interest rate is one point eight percent,
Speaker 6: which historically is very restrictive.
Speaker 2: Bill Gross also said stocks are too expensive relative to
Speaker 2: the level of real yields.
Speaker 3: Man Amy Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hatzius also thinks
Speaker 3: the Fed could start cutting rates. He says a March
Speaker 3: cut quote would make sense. He spoke with Bloomberg from
Speaker 3: Hong Kong.
Speaker 11: The Fed is on its way to achieving the soft landing.
Speaker 11: Obviously no guarantees, but I like what I'm seeing.
Speaker 3: Goldman Sachs Chief economist John Hatzey says an easing in
Speaker 3: March would be consistent with the trajectory of consumer prices
Speaker 3: and comments last month from Fed share Jpel that the
Speaker 3: central bank would like to cut before inflation returns to
Speaker 3: two percent.
Speaker 2: It is generally known that happy workers tend to be
Speaker 2: productive workers. Bloomberg's Jeff Ballinger reports on new research that
Speaker 2: shows the opposite is also true.
Speaker 11: Gallup estimates disgruntled employees cost American companies one point nine
Speaker 11: trillion dollars in lost productivity in twenty twenty three. The
Speaker 11: report says more workers feel detached from their employers in
Speaker 11: the aftermath of the pandemic, in part because they no
Speaker 11: longer know what is expected of them. The stakes are
Speaker 11: high for companies. Engaged workers increase productivity, sales, and profits,
Speaker 11: and they're less likely to leave. Gallup says half of
Speaker 11: all workers now put forth minimum effort, something called quiet quitting.
Speaker 11: F Bullinger, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: Okay, Jeff thanks. Heading overseas, Bloomberg News has learned Chinese
Speaker 3: authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilize the
Speaker 3: slumping stock market. More on that from Bloomberg China Government
Speaker 3: editor Jill Desis in Hong Kong.
Speaker 12: The idea would be to mobilize about two hundred and
Speaker 12: eighty billion dollars worth of funds, mainly from offshore accounts
Speaker 12: of state owned businesses. So the idea would be this
Speaker 12: is all part of a stabilization fund. They would use
Speaker 12: this money to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong
Speaker 12: Exchange length to the mainland.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Jill Lisis says a gauge of Chinese stocks listed
Speaker 3: in Hong Kong rose on the news by two point
Speaker 3: eight percent.
Speaker 2: Staying in Asia, the Bank of Japan is keeping its
Speaker 2: negative rate for the time being. Policy Makers maintained the
Speaker 2: banks er point one percent short term rate and kept
Speaker 2: yield curve control parameters intact after a two day meeting.
Speaker 2: Speaking at a press conference after the decision, boj Governor
Speaker 2: Kazuo Uweeda said that uncertainties related to the outlook for
Speaker 2: prices still remain high. Time now for a look at
Speaker 2: some of the other stories making news around the world.
Speaker 2: For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. Good morning John, Yeah.
Speaker 13: Good morning Aamy. While lawmakers negotiate new policy at the
Speaker 13: Southern border, the Supreme Court has issued a ruling concerning
Speaker 13: policing of the border. That story in this report from
Speaker 13: Bloomberg's Nancy Lyons.
Speaker 8: The Supreme Court says it will allow federal border agents
Speaker 8: to cut razor wire that Texas installed to discourage crossings.
Speaker 8: That's while a lawsuit makes its way through the court system.
Speaker 8: The Justices, by a five to four vote, granted an
Speaker 8: emergency appeal from the Biden administration, which has been in
Speaker 8: an escalating standoff with Texas over the handling of the border.
Speaker 8: The razor wire was installed at the request of Texas
Speaker 8: Governor Greg Abbott. In Washington, Nancy lyons Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 13: Democrats in New Hampshire are calling un officials to investigate
Speaker 13: some suspicious robo calls that a Hampshire Attorney General's office
Speaker 13: says it's investigating reports of an apparent robo call but
Speaker 13: used artificial intelligence to mimic President Biden advising people in
Speaker 13: the state not to vote in the primary. One of
Speaker 13: Boeing's biggest customers has lost confidence in the playmaker's ability
Speaker 13: to overcome the ongoing quality lapses that climax this month
Speaker 13: with a midair emergency in Alaska Airlines Flight United Airlines
Speaker 13: chief executive officer Scott Kirby has been venting his frustrations
Speaker 13: with management to colleagues and voicing his concerns over the
Speaker 13: handling of the max grounding in California, rain ripped through
Speaker 13: San Diego from North County to South Beach Mende, which
Speaker 13: led to flooding and rescues, as well as devastated homeowners.
Speaker 11: All my collectors, valuable cars, everything have been collected since
Speaker 11: South Style Everything's gone.
Speaker 13: Cars were trapped in the water from the storm. Traffic
Speaker 13: was stopped. I fifteen was closed for a while. The
Speaker 13: Dana Farber Cancer Institute, that's a leading Harvard Medical School
Speaker 13: affiliated teaching center, is seeking retractions of six studies and
Speaker 13: corrections on another. Thirty one papers a bit allegations that
Speaker 13: some of its senior researchers falsified data. A spokesperson said, well,
Speaker 13: Harvard Medical School doesn't comment on individual circumstances. It's fully
Speaker 13: committed to safeguarding the integrity of its research. Global news
Speaker 13: twenty four hours a day and whatever you want it
Speaker 13: with Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker. This he is
Speaker 13: Bloomberg Amy.
Speaker 2: All right, thank you, John, and we do bring you
Speaker 2: news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. But now
Speaker 2: you can get the latest news on demand whenever you
Speaker 2: want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the
Speaker 2: latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed
Speaker 2: on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News Noow on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 2: plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, and for that
Speaker 2: we bring in John stash Hour.
Speaker 7: Amy was at night at Big Men's scoring a lot
Speaker 7: of points in the NBA. In Minnesota, the Timberwolves call
Speaker 7: All Anthony Town scored sixty two points. He made ten
Speaker 7: three pointers. All the Timberwolves were upset by Charlotte. In Philadelphia,
Speaker 7: Joe L. M Beats scored seventy. He had fifty nine
Speaker 7: while still in the third quarter. The Sixers beat the
Speaker 7: Spurs for their six straight win. M Beat shot twenty
Speaker 7: four of forty one, only made one to three. He
Speaker 7: was twenty one of twenty three from the free throw line.
Speaker 7: Celtics won at Dallas one nineteen to one. Ten Jason
Speaker 7: Tatum scored thirty nine and Milwaukee's winning Detroit thirty one
Speaker 7: points in a triple double. Piannis sun to the Compo
Speaker 7: and Phoenix's win over Chicago forty two points for Kevin Durant.
Speaker 7: Brewins made it five straight wins. They beat Winnipeg four
Speaker 7: to one. Kyleege hoops North Carolina, now ranked third eight
Speaker 7: tozero in the ACC Easy went over wake for US.
Speaker 7: Kansas dropped US seventh of the rankings. Jayhawks did win
Speaker 7: last night over Cincinnati out of the semifinals for Nobak
Speaker 7: Djokovic at the Australian oer For He took out the
Speaker 7: American tailor Fritz in four sets. Fritz is now zero
Speaker 7: to nine lifetime against Djokovic. A struggle for Coco Goff.
Speaker 7: She was down five to one in the opening sets.
Speaker 7: She rallied a win and a tiebreaker, then lost a
Speaker 7: second set tiebreaker. She beat Mark da Kostyuk of Ukraine
Speaker 7: six to two in the third set. We'll find out
Speaker 7: today who's going to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Adrian
Speaker 7: Beltre expected to shoe win in this first year on
Speaker 7: the ballot. Joe Mauer may join him. Billy Wagner and
Speaker 7: Todd Helton came close last year. John Stash that went Bloomberg.
Speaker 14: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 14: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam the Bloomberg
Speaker 14: Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break.
Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. On this primary day in
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have made
Speaker 3: their final pitches to the voters and what is now
Speaker 3: down to a two person race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Speaker 3: And joining us now from New Hampshire is Bloomberg's Lord Davison,
Speaker 3: part of our political team covering today's primary and the race.
Speaker 3: To Laura, thanks again for being with us. So we've
Speaker 3: heard from both Trump and Haley in their final Granite
Speaker 3: State rallies. Where's the enthusiasm?
Speaker 15: Well, both Haley and Trump gave these very dramatic speeches
Speaker 15: last night. Hailey's main argument was that Trump is chaos
Speaker 15: and America can't survive another four years of chaos. Trump
Speaker 15: then followed with a big rally, of a very raucous
Speaker 15: rally with lots of protesters and yelling and even some
Speaker 15: canon slogans being yelled during during pauses in his speech,
Speaker 15: and he ended in a way that he never really
Speaker 15: has before. He played the sort of low level, almost
Speaker 15: trance like music and kind of got quiet and then
Speaker 15: went through this long list of grievances. If you know
Speaker 15: we are a nation in decline, we are a nation
Speaker 15: of open borders or you know, criminals are crossing, and
Speaker 15: so this was, you know, different than how he has
Speaker 15: ended all of his speeches, but he really have made
Speaker 15: the case and tried to project the air of inevitability
Speaker 15: that he would be the one to win in New
Speaker 15: Hampshire today and quickly seal up this nomination.
Speaker 3: Interesting to think about this sort of sinister and to
Speaker 3: Trump Rowley, what does that tell you about potentially where
Speaker 3: he sees things going in this race.
Speaker 15: He said very explicitly last night that he believes that
Speaker 15: he thinks that that Hayley will drop out very quickly.
Speaker 15: You know, we'll see the results tonight will really determine
Speaker 15: that the future of her campaign. If she is close
Speaker 15: to Trump, or even beats Trump, it's very likely she
Speaker 15: will stay in the next major contest in this race
Speaker 15: is in South Carolina, her home state, and not for
Speaker 15: another month, so that gives a lot of opportunity for
Speaker 15: you know, potentially the polls to swing in her favor.
Speaker 15: You know, right now she's trailing Trump significantly, so if
Speaker 15: she doesn't do well tonight, that would signal you know
Speaker 15: that her campaign, her window of opportunity is closing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, as we've been reported, howarding the polls show former
Speaker 3: President Trump with a double digit lead over Nikki Haley
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire is something like eighteen percentage points in
Speaker 3: the latest Real Clear Politics average. Are those polls necessarily
Speaker 3: reflective of the sort of moderate and independent outlook of
Speaker 3: the voter base in New Hampshire.
Speaker 15: One of the things about New Hampshire that's a little
Speaker 15: bit tricky to measure are One is they don't have
Speaker 15: any live voter calling polls like we had in Iowa.
Speaker 15: Those are known to be the most accurate, but they're
Speaker 15: also incredibly expensive to do, and they just don't have
Speaker 15: any in the state. So that's one issue. The second
Speaker 15: is New Hampshire is different in how it votes from
Speaker 15: many places and that you have a large number of
Speaker 15: what they call undeclared voters. Is are you know, essentially
Speaker 15: independents and neither Republicans nor Democrats, so they can go
Speaker 15: in on primary day and request the ballot of either party.
Speaker 15: So because of that, there's a lot of you know,
Speaker 15: gray area on you who who's going to go in,
Speaker 15: who's actually going to vote in which race, and how
Speaker 15: are they going to break. Independence in New Hampshire aren't
Speaker 15: like independence in other states where they tend to be
Speaker 15: more centrist, more moderate. Independence here run the whole gamut.
Speaker 15: So it's just a difficult way to sort of determine,
Speaker 15: you know, if they're going to go Trump, if they're
Speaker 15: going to go Haley, if they're going to stay home,
Speaker 15: or if they're going to go for someone else, like
Speaker 15: Dean Phillips, for example, who's challenging Biden on the Democratic side.
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about Dean Phillips on the Democratic side,
Speaker 3: because we have been in discussions with the congressman who's
Speaker 3: mounting this primary challenge in a roundtable discussion with Bloomberg News.
Speaker 3: What's his pitch.
Speaker 15: So he's saying that Biden has done a good job,
Speaker 15: but his time is up and it's time for him
Speaker 15: to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders.
Speaker 15: And Phillips is he's a businessman. He's a little bit
Speaker 15: more moderate than Phillips or than Biden. Though he's not
Speaker 15: particularly well known. You know, he's been in Congress since
Speaker 15: twenty eighteen from Minnesota, kind of came in kind of
Speaker 15: in a wave of anti Trump backlash. The reality here
Speaker 15: is he does not have a chance to unseat Biden here,
Speaker 15: but he's sort of running his campaign is sort of
Speaker 15: to raise a you know, a protest to Biden running
Speaker 15: again after he said that he would only serve one term.
Speaker 15: So what you're looking for here is, you know, what
Speaker 15: percentage of the vote does Phillips get, you know, and
Speaker 15: that could really signal, you know, kind of Biden's strength
Speaker 15: or lack thereof with Democrats.
Speaker 3: All Right, lots to watch as primary day is officially
Speaker 3: underway in New Hampshire. Laura Davison of Bloomberg News, thanks
Speaker 3: for joining us giving us a look at what's going
Speaker 3: on in the Granite State. Now, we want to turn
Speaker 3: to a conversation with the co founder of pim Co
Speaker 3: Bill Gross, the self described bond king, who says the
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve should stop winding down its balance sheet now
Speaker 3: and start cutting interest rates soon to avoid a US recession.
Speaker 3: In a conversation with Bloomberg's Remain Bostic and Alex Steele,
Speaker 3: Bill Gross also said the yield curve has to go
Speaker 3: positive in order to produce that stable economy.
Speaker 6: A negative yield curve and I use the two to
Speaker 6: ten year spread, which is about a negative twenty three
Speaker 6: or twenty four, it's been as high as fifty to
Speaker 6: seventy five basis points. So it's less negative now. But
Speaker 6: when you think about it common sensically, when you think
Speaker 6: about it, capitalism and a finance based economy, which is
Speaker 6: what we have, can't really do well when you can
Speaker 6: get a higher return for less risk. That's not the
Speaker 6: basis of a capitalistic economy. You need to get a
Speaker 6: higher return for more risk. And it's just the reverse now.
Speaker 6: And so you know, I think ultimately the yield curve
Speaker 6: has to go positive in order to produce a relatively
Speaker 6: stable economy and a stable inflation rate around three percent?
Speaker 16: Do you have face right now in the economy? And
Speaker 16: more importantly, the folks who are shepherding that economy.
Speaker 6: Well, no, you know, let's let me put it out there.
Speaker 6: You know, the Fed is not done well in the
Speaker 6: past three or four years in terms of or five
Speaker 6: years in terms of trying to find that magic Fed
Speaker 6: funds rate that will neither increase inflation or produce deflation.
Speaker 6: And so you know, are they wise enough now to
Speaker 6: know exactly what the Fed funds rate should be at
Speaker 6: any point in time or even you know, six to
Speaker 6: twelve months down the road. Now, I'd be very cautious,
Speaker 6: and I'd view economic statistics like they do, but from
Speaker 6: an investor's standpoint that you know, speak to fundamentals that
Speaker 6: the FED isn't necessarily following.
Speaker 16: Well, let me ask you, what would you do different
Speaker 16: if if for some reason, you were magically in the
Speaker 16: shoes of j what would you do different at this point?
Speaker 6: Well, I would stop quantitative tightening. I think that's just
Speaker 6: not a correct philosophy and policy at this point in
Speaker 6: time to you know, continue to tighten quantitatively. They should
Speaker 6: leave the you know, the reserve balance around seven trillion
Speaker 6: dollars and just see what happens going forward. I also
Speaker 6: think that yes, the FED should lower interest rates over
Speaker 6: the next six to twelve months. Real interest rates are
Speaker 6: simply too high. The ten year real interest rate is
Speaker 6: one point eight percent, which historically is very restrictive. And
Speaker 6: you know, I think not only the FED, but I
Speaker 6: would like to see the real interest rate on a
Speaker 6: tenure come down to one and a half or one percent.
Speaker 6: And so the way to do that is to lower
Speaker 6: interest rates from where we have it now at five
Speaker 6: and quarter percent for food funds and you know, basically
Speaker 6: balance out real interest rates and lower them so that
Speaker 6: the economy won't go into a significant recession.
Speaker 17: So, Bill, if you think we're going to get cuts
Speaker 17: in the next day six to twelve months, are we
Speaker 17: cutting because of normalization to get that real yield kind
Speaker 17: of at a more normal level, or are we cutting
Speaker 17: because the economy looks really bad.
Speaker 9: Well, we're certainly not talking about.
Speaker 6: The Fed funds rate based upon an economy that looks bad,
Speaker 6: although there are indicators such as the you know, leading
Speaker 6: indicator number that came out today and other indicators that suggest,
Speaker 6: like we talked about in terms of the negative yeal curve,
Speaker 6: that suggests that you know, at some point we're going
Speaker 6: to see a zero line you know, real gene and
Speaker 6: PN maybe something lower. I think, you know, to basically
Speaker 6: keep an economy going, and this finance based economy that
Speaker 6: we've had for a long time now five, ten, fifteen,
Speaker 6: twenty years, you need interest rates lower than nominal GDP.
Speaker 6: That's what drives you know, basically today's economy as opposed
Speaker 6: to what we saw fifty to.
Speaker 9: One hundred years ago.
Speaker 6: And so with nominal GDP at five and six percent
Speaker 6: and perhaps out at four, but we need the tenure
Speaker 6: to be lower than nominal GDP in order to continue
Speaker 6: a you know, a steady progression in terms of economic growth.
Speaker 17: So, Bill, in that environment, does it make sense that
Speaker 17: equities are at a record right now based on what
Speaker 17: you're talking about?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 9: No, I don't think it does.
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, I've got some historical charts and
Speaker 6: others have provided those for me, Bloomberg being one of them.
Speaker 9: That basically suggest that PE ratios.
Speaker 6: Of nineteen to twenty times, which is what we're at
Speaker 6: the moment, and perhaps a little bit lower based on
Speaker 6: forward expectations that you know, PE of nineteen times is
Speaker 6: much too high relative to a one point eight percent
Speaker 6: real interest rate, you know, real interest rates who are
Speaker 6: down at a negative minus two percent, you know, just
Speaker 6: as recently as two to three years ago, and so
Speaker 6: they've risen significantly.
Speaker 9: But PE ratios haven't haven't really dropped.
Speaker 6: And so I think, ultimately, and this is a long
Speaker 6: term type of statement, in a long term thesis, ultimately
Speaker 6: PU ratios have to get more in balance with real
Speaker 6: interest rates, which are you know, relatively high.
Speaker 1: Nown This is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on
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