Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome into the first episode of the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros NFL Draft Show.
Speaker 2: I am your host, Thorne Eistrom.
Speaker 1: I will be joined weekly by my colleague Derek Brown,
Speaker 1: going down all the positions, all of our rankings, all
Speaker 1: of our thoughts on all these various guys. We're gonna
Speaker 1: start today with our top ten quarterbacks, which we will
Speaker 1: get into momentarily. We also want to talk about some
Speaker 1: draft props, which we will be doing at the top
Speaker 1: of every episode as well throughout the spring. Tony, you guys,
Speaker 1: maybe we're some values that we're seeing on the board,
Speaker 1: different stuff like that. Deebra I'm so excited to get
Speaker 1: into this show. We've been talking about this for a
Speaker 1: long time and finally here.
Speaker 3: Oh baby, I'm lit. I mean, this is this feels
Speaker 3: like Christmas Eve man, like I was so excited about this.
Speaker 3: I mean, we talked about this. I called you at
Speaker 3: midnight last night so we could talk about some prospects beforehand.
Speaker 3: Didn't want to give away too much. That a way
Speaker 3: we can have some live reactions on the show. But dude,
Speaker 3: we've been talking about doing a show like this for
Speaker 3: over a year now. The Powers that be a Fantasy
Speaker 3: Pros greenlit this and it's it's go time, baby, So look,
Speaker 3: I'm ready and we're gonna get into this. I think
Speaker 3: we're gonna have a ton of fun on this show.
Speaker 3: So thank you everybody for tuning in, subscribing to this,
Speaker 3: and dude, let's go.
Speaker 2: Let's do this now.
Speaker 1: Deebro and I we do talk about guys as we
Speaker 1: get through on the tape, just given little thoughts and whatnot,
Speaker 1: but we have not gone through. Our top tens are
Speaker 1: given full thoughts to each other on this, so I'm
Speaker 1: excited to hear what you have to say as well.
Speaker 1: Let's start though with developments in the prop market, the
Speaker 1: biggest one of which every single spring is literally just
Speaker 1: the dropping of them. And we finally have a wider
Speaker 1: selection that was just dropped recently here on DraftKings. Deebro,
Speaker 1: the couple I wanted to hit first quarterback selected to
Speaker 1: start out with Caleb Williams right now minus one thousand
Speaker 1: prohibitive favorite on that. Let's just start there. You look
Speaker 1: down the odds on this on the board, are there
Speaker 1: any initial thoughts that come to you and are there
Speaker 1: any values that you're seeing down lower on the board.
Speaker 1: Potential guys that people can bet on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I think the two guys that stick out
Speaker 3: the most to me. And not just going with the
Speaker 3: long shot bet here, but looking at Jayden Daniels over
Speaker 3: on DraftKings, which of your own DraftKings? Man, you gotta
Speaker 3: be using the promo code Fantasy pros if you're in there,
Speaker 3: new customer is gonna no sweat bet up to one
Speaker 3: thousand dollars if you lose the first bet, you're not
Speaker 3: gonna lose this one. If you put money on a baby,
Speaker 3: and that's plus fourteen hundred on Jade Daniels and looking
Speaker 3: at him, he's got the type of skill set to
Speaker 3: possibly be the number one guy overall. If it's not
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams. Looking at that dynamic skill set, that's the guy.
Speaker 3: And we want to sit here and put some keyshe behind.
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna toss this right back to you, thor
Speaker 3: who sticks out here, to you thorn mey.
Speaker 1: Or may not have already made a couple bets here,
Speaker 1: the one that I liked, and I I had to
Speaker 1: put some of my soldiers at risk because of this.
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy at plus ten thousand, I feel like is
Speaker 1: it's not going it's not respectful enough to him. In
Speaker 1: more realities than that, I feel like he would end
Speaker 1: up at number one. I don't want to get too
Speaker 1: in depth into my thoughts because we are here in
Speaker 1: a second on JJ McCarthy, but I to me, this
Speaker 1: is more of a four man type race as far
Speaker 1: as those top four quarterbacks go. Certainly then the odds
Speaker 1: board is depicting JJ McCarthy is number six on here.
Speaker 1: They have bo Nicks on the odds board for this.
Speaker 1: B Neex at number five is plus seventy five hundred.
Speaker 1: I don't see how Bonex goes above JJ McCarty. Michael
Speaker 1: Pennix is plus four thousand. JJ McCarthy can get for
Speaker 1: plus ten thousand. I mean, just from an ROI perspective,
Speaker 1: I feel like that you're getting some decent odds there.
Speaker 1: So I went with that deep bro that the number
Speaker 1: two odds. So the odds to be the number two
Speaker 1: overall pick are kind of interesting too. We've had this
Speaker 1: narrative not even the spring. I mean this is going
Speaker 1: back to last summer. Coming out of the last season
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, it's been Caleb is number one, Drake
Speaker 1: may is number two, and then we'll begin the discussion.
Speaker 1: The odds boards are still reflective of sort of that paradigm.
Speaker 1: Drake May right now live in the market minus one
Speaker 1: eighty to be the second overall pick. Daniels at plus
Speaker 1: one seventy five, you have Marvin Harrison Junior at plus
Speaker 1: five hundred. Caleb Williams if he were to get upset
Speaker 1: for the number one pick, is plus seven fifty. Here
Speaker 1: looking over this board, you know for the number two
Speaker 1: odds are there are there any values here that you're
Speaker 1: seeing or any thoughts that come to mind for you?
Speaker 3: I mean I think like I just want to hammer
Speaker 3: on the connections here and the quarterback archetypes here, and
Speaker 3: the two guys that stick out to me for this
Speaker 3: are again going back to the Jayden and Daniels well
Speaker 3: plus one seventy five and Caleb Williams at plus seven fifty. Now,
Speaker 3: all you have to do is tell yourself a little
Speaker 3: story and say, okay, Cliff Kingsbury being in Washington if
Speaker 3: they don't go with Drake May and they go for
Speaker 3: more of a mobile quarterback, or we want to talk
Speaker 3: about the USC connection and Cliff spurning other teams, and
Speaker 3: then just arriving in Washington. Maybe we're connecting easy dots here,
Speaker 3: but at plus money on both of these guys, especially
Speaker 3: the odds for Caleb. If we do get the upset,
Speaker 3: say Kago goes with Drake may or they they go
Speaker 3: off the board with another pick, or some team trades back,
Speaker 3: however that falls out. I love the odds on Caleb
Speaker 3: here and making the cliff connection, as well as Jane
Speaker 3: Daniels and the mobility. I mean, we saw him hand
Speaker 3: pick Kyler Murray when he was the head coach in Arizona.
Speaker 3: It's not hard to see either one of those things
Speaker 3: come to fruition.
Speaker 1: Well, let me put it this way, just by a
Speaker 1: straight percentage, Let's say Caleb Williams on the board at
Speaker 1: number two and Washington makes that selection. What by a
Speaker 1: percent what percent odds do you think that Washington would
Speaker 1: pick Caleb Williams?
Speaker 3: Oh, good lord, minus two fifty Yeah, ninety nine point
Speaker 3: nine nine percent.
Speaker 1: There all it takes. All it takes is for Caleb
Speaker 1: Williams to get upset. Is the first pack and he's
Speaker 1: gonna be the second pick. So I mean, just by definition,
Speaker 1: I feel like getting the seven and a half to
Speaker 1: one might might be a decent bet there as well,
Speaker 1: so interesting in the problem market. We will keep our
Speaker 1: eyes on this as we go in the spring. Deebro
Speaker 1: and I are our big time NFL combined prop betters
Speaker 1: with the forty, so those will be dropping soon. We'll
Speaker 1: be talking about that in episodes coming up. And then
Speaker 1: of course the slot props when they drop all of them,
Speaker 1: we will be diving deep into that as we get
Speaker 1: further along here in the spring. But Deebra, we have
Speaker 1: so many quarterbacks to talk about, and in a very
Speaker 1: compelling quarterback.
Speaker 2: Class, so we best get into it.
Speaker 1: The way that we thought we would structure this show
Speaker 1: is as we go through on the positions, to present
Speaker 1: these in the order that they are as a consensus,
Speaker 1: and at the time that we do the episode, we're
Speaker 1: using the NFL Mock Draft database dot com consensus rankings
Speaker 1: just from the industry, and that's how we'll present these guys,
Speaker 1: give our take, and then give where we would rank
Speaker 1: them or where we do rank them right now in
Speaker 1: our top ten. So we only got time for the
Speaker 1: top eight, Deebro, so let's start at number eight on
Speaker 1: that board, which is Michael Pratt. Give us your thoughts
Speaker 1: on Michael Pratt and then where you have him in
Speaker 1: your top ten?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Michael Pratt. Look, I mean my comp is just
Speaker 3: going to tell you all you need to know about
Speaker 3: Michael Pratt. I mean, right now, I've got him comp
Speaker 3: to Matt Castle. I think he's a pure pocket passer.
Speaker 3: I know that he had some running and some times
Speaker 3: with mobility. As far as at Tulane, I don't see
Speaker 3: that translating to the NFL. He's got an easy delivery,
Speaker 3: he throws an accurate ball. I look at him as
Speaker 3: more of a guy that looking at the NFL, probably
Speaker 3: round five type of guy as far as draft capital
Speaker 3: at least we're projecting right now, and is a player
Speaker 3: who's had moments of flash and he's played well under pressure,
Speaker 3: but overall there's no just dynamic trump card to Michael
Speaker 3: Pratt's skill set. I think he's pretty good at all
Speaker 3: the different things. He's pretty good at ball placement. You
Speaker 3: don't see a lot of wow throws on his resume.
Speaker 3: So again, a guy that I think is probably going
Speaker 3: to garner a decent career in the NFL as a backup,
Speaker 3: could get a cup of coffee or at least a
Speaker 3: run at a starting job at some point if injury
Speaker 3: were to arise. But again, not a guy that I'm
Speaker 3: going to project higher than on five in the NFL draft.
Speaker 3: And he's my QB eight, so I'm right in line
Speaker 3: with consensus as am I.
Speaker 1: He is also my QB eight, and I think he
Speaker 1: set that up well. Like he's solid in a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of different areas. He's not a leader in any right.
Speaker 1: Like the build is is. You know, he's got a
Speaker 1: solid build. He has, you know, decent athleticism for his size,
Speaker 1: decent arm, but none of it jumps out. And the
Speaker 1: rushing utility is probably not gonna play at the NFL level,
Speaker 1: especially because he's got some durability concerns. A guy that
Speaker 1: was banged up throughout college, has concussion issues going back
Speaker 1: a while now, had a shoulder thing. I'm wondering how
Speaker 1: his body holds up if he were to be pressing
Speaker 1: into action a longer term in the NFL. For me,
Speaker 1: Michael Prapp projects as a solid backup in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think that's what you're getting. I think you're getting
Speaker 1: a guy that could potentially run your offense in a
Speaker 1: break glass in case of emergency type thing, not embarrass himself.
Speaker 1: He obviously knew all the concepts and the plays at Tulane,
Speaker 1: you know, was one of the leading guys in terms
Speaker 1: of turning their program around, around whatever, but not a
Speaker 1: singular guy that's going to elevate dudes around him, certainly
Speaker 1: not in the NFL. So that's why I had him
Speaker 1: down at number eight. A part of it was the
Speaker 1: durability thing. Just without that, I might have put him
Speaker 1: a spot or too higher. But that's where I ended
Speaker 1: up on him. Moving to the next guy de bro
Speaker 1: on the consensus board, QB seven is Spencer Rallery or
Speaker 1: South Carolina course formerly of Oklahoma.
Speaker 2: He had to hit the road.
Speaker 1: Because Caleb Williams, the guy we're gonna be talking about
Speaker 1: in a second. He got bench for Caleb Williams Lincoln
Speaker 1: Rally and then obviously those who were on their way
Speaker 1: out to USC But this USC of Spencer Raller at
Speaker 1: South Carolina, what did you think of his play?
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna leave this off right now. He so
Speaker 3: with consensus on mock draft database, he's QB seven. He
Speaker 3: is my QB six, So he has hopped somebody in
Speaker 3: the process, especially coming on amobile and looking at Spencer Rattler,
Speaker 3: it's his play to play. Consistency has to improve. There
Speaker 3: are moments on his tape where you're like, oh, there's
Speaker 3: some wild throws, there's some definite like he has all
Speaker 3: the parts of pieces to be an NFL starting caliber quarterback.
Speaker 3: He can do some things with it with his legs,
Speaker 3: he's got good pocket mobility. The problem with Spencer is
Speaker 3: that you'll have moments where you're just like, literally, what
Speaker 3: are you doing? Like why did you make that decision?
Speaker 3: Why did you throw into double coverage? Why did why? Oh,
Speaker 3: why did you just make that read? Out of everything
Speaker 3: you could have done with that play? And so really
Speaker 3: that's where the upside contingent goes with Spencer because you
Speaker 3: see the good moments with that. You see where there
Speaker 3: are wow plays on his tape, whether that's him fitting
Speaker 3: a ball in a tight window, throwing on the run,
Speaker 3: creating a play where there is none, and some of
Speaker 3: that moxie that like, if you're gonna get that type
Speaker 3: of game changer type of upside out of a prospect,
Speaker 3: we want to see some of those things. But the
Speaker 3: downside for Spencer Rattler is definitely there in the play
Speaker 3: to play consistency going through reads and things like that,
Speaker 3: Like because he wasn't tasked with full field reads on
Speaker 3: every single snap a lot of half field reads, he
Speaker 3: hang on to his first option. Then he kind of
Speaker 3: rushed the progression. So for him to actualize the ceiling,
Speaker 3: the play to play consistency has to improve because we
Speaker 3: know the raw intangibles are there, Like you don't see
Speaker 3: a guy break out early in his collegiate career to
Speaker 3: the extent that Rattler did and he just to be
Speaker 3: a shmo. So I believe in the kid's talent. If
Speaker 3: anybody considering the week that we saw a mobile for,
Speaker 3: I think Spencer Ratler could be one of those guys
Speaker 3: as a riser in the process because we were both
Speaker 3: really enamored with how he interviewed, his overall just demeanor
Speaker 3: as a guy that if you looked at him or
Speaker 3: you've heard different things in the process or you will
Speaker 3: in the weeks to come where it's like, Okay, guy
Speaker 3: had some some moments were on interviews on TV shows
Speaker 3: things like that where it was like, okay, he's immature,
Speaker 3: But again, you and I have talked about this off air.
Speaker 3: It's like, how the hell would either one of us
Speaker 3: been if you'd interviewed us at seventeen or eighteen year old,
Speaker 3: like as a seventeen or eighteen year old being one
Speaker 3: of the top quarterback prospects in the nation. Like, some
Speaker 3: of that is immaturity, But what we saw on Mobile
Speaker 3: is that he's he's grown up. Life has taught him
Speaker 3: some left lessons and he is matured in this entire process.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one thousand percent.
Speaker 1: He did not quit himself well on the QB one
Speaker 1: show coming out of high school. It's clear that he
Speaker 1: has matured light years since then. And I think you know,
Speaker 1: there was a reckoning with him, a humbling when he
Speaker 1: was bench for Caleb Williams and then had to transfer
Speaker 1: went to South Carolina, different stuff like that, And you
Speaker 1: see that manifest like he was one of the nicest
Speaker 1: dudes that we met down there in Willbile, very generous
Speaker 1: and everything like that, thoughtful, different stuff like that. On
Speaker 1: the field, I totally agree with you. He's sort of
Speaker 1: like Bill Simmons used to have this concept for basketball
Speaker 1: of the irrational confidence guy, and Rattler sometime plays with
Speaker 1: the rational confidence and when things are going well, he
Speaker 1: plays and that's when you see that ceiling upside that
Speaker 1: we're talking about of potential NFL starter because he has
Speaker 1: the tools as far as from in the pocket, certainly
Speaker 1: the arm, love the gumptionin love the field vision, love
Speaker 1: the courage. I mean he'll test, absolutely, he'll test good
Speaker 1: defenses too. He doesn't care like he trusts his eyes.
Speaker 1: He trusts what he's seeing, different stuff like that. When
Speaker 1: it's not going as well, that's where you see some
Speaker 1: things devolve.
Speaker 2: I like that his on field game is matured as well.
Speaker 1: When he started off at Oklahoma, he liked to do
Speaker 1: the high wire act sort of a thing and scramble
Speaker 1: around in the pocket, invite in the pressure, different stuff
Speaker 1: like that. He had a totally different kind of a
Speaker 1: game his first year at Sell Carolina, and I would
Speaker 1: forward that Sell Carolina was a bad fit for him
Speaker 1: in terms of having a really poor offensive line in
Speaker 1: front of him both those years. The first year he
Speaker 1: learned some hard lessons because the sort of that high
Speaker 1: wire act that he was doing at all Olahoma when
Speaker 1: he was starting, he couldn't do it at South Carolina
Speaker 1: because you would have immediate pressure and the whole thing
Speaker 1: would get blown up whatever. So he had to modulate
Speaker 1: his game. This year there was that was a lot better.
Speaker 1: The coaching staff also helped him out a bit with that.
Speaker 1: I mean, Sell Carolina's offensive line marginally improved, but they
Speaker 1: were still one hundred and seventh PFF pass grade past
Speaker 1: block grade this year. But the coaching staff also helped
Speaker 1: him with more of the quick hitting concepts, different stuff
Speaker 1: like that, trying to keep the pass rush a little
Speaker 1: bit at bait, different stuff like that, and he improved
Speaker 1: leaps and bounds year over year. Sell Carolina year one
Speaker 1: and then Sell Carolina year two. Definitely think he's draftable.
Speaker 1: I definitely think that there's that upside of potentially, if
Speaker 1: the light fully clicks for him, you might have a
Speaker 1: average to slightly below average starter in the NFL. But
Speaker 1: I do think either way, Spencer Ratler is hanging around
Speaker 1: for a while as a backup. The pocket passing thing
Speaker 1: is going to translate. I have Spencer Rattler at QB seven.
Speaker 1: Now very interested to see who you have bumped Rattler over.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll move on to the.
Speaker 1: Next guy in the consensus rankings, which is Michael Pennix
Speaker 1: sitting at number six, the Washington quarterback who for a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks was Draft Twitters, Darlang, where have you
Speaker 1: come out on Michael Pennick since you've watched his tape
Speaker 1: now obviously we got up close exposure to him in mobile.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with consensus? Are you lower you higher?
Speaker 1: Where you out on him?
Speaker 3: I've got him at QB five right now, And really
Speaker 3: this comes down to he's at the top of a
Speaker 3: massive tier break, and you know, everybody knows the top
Speaker 3: four guys in this class and I don't think Penix's
Speaker 3: is in that class. And really where penix comes in
Speaker 3: at being the QB five for me and has said,
Speaker 3: like there's a massive tier break, like you do see
Speaker 3: the pluses and Penix's game in that like and my
Speaker 3: comp just kind of lays it out here. I think
Speaker 3: he's a poor man, Philip rivers, You're not gonna get
Speaker 3: anything as far as rushing utility. He's not gonna do
Speaker 3: a lot of things like outside of structure. He's a
Speaker 3: guy that's gonna sit in the pocket. You need to
Speaker 3: have a good offensive line in front of him for
Speaker 3: him to really play his best. But the other parts
Speaker 3: about that is the arm talent is there. But while
Speaker 3: I think that he does have a strong arm, and
Speaker 3: I'm not taking anything away from he's a max effort thrower,
Speaker 3: Like he throws the ball like a freaking shot put.
Speaker 3: And that's where I come down like the similarities to
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers in the mechanics of his wind up and delivery,
Speaker 3: and where I think Pennick succeeds is down the field
Speaker 3: in the pocket. Now, if you versus pressure, it could
Speaker 3: be an adventure for him as well as if you're
Speaker 3: talking about just progression through the play. We talked about
Speaker 3: this in Mobile and nothing's changed this. If anything, Mobile
Speaker 3: has showed this a little bit more because of Washington system,
Speaker 3: a lot of like three step drops, a lot of
Speaker 3: getting the ball out or it was basically either get
Speaker 3: the ball out asked, or we're taking shots down the field. Baby,
Speaker 3: we're going full yolow. That in between stuff where we
Speaker 3: were asking him to read the field or five step drop,
Speaker 3: and you're really asking to operate more in a pro
Speaker 3: style offense. That's where I see the late trigger coming
Speaker 3: from Michael Pennix. He's more of a see it, throw
Speaker 3: it guy. He's not a guy that's hitting guys at
Speaker 3: the top of their stem before they come out of
Speaker 3: their breaks and hitting them in step. It's really you know,
Speaker 3: wide receiver, just say, like a wide receiver runs a
Speaker 3: comeback route. He gets to the top of stem, he
Speaker 3: comes back, he takes about two or three steps. Pennis goes, oh,
Speaker 3: he's open, pew and shoots the ball over that way.
Speaker 3: He's not a guy where you're gonna see him have
Speaker 3: the anticipatory throws. Does he do it from time to time? Yes?
Speaker 3: Is that a consistency in his game? And one of
Speaker 3: the worries for me, And we've seen guys like transition
Speaker 3: from see it throw it guys to more anticipatory throwers.
Speaker 3: The guy right off the top of my head, and
Speaker 3: I'm not comparing the two, but to make that type
Speaker 3: of transition was Dak Prescott. Can Pennix do that? Sure,
Speaker 3: it's possible. Like we're not telling anybody those these kids
Speaker 3: can't grow and mature continuing at the NFL level in
Speaker 3: their games. But we're talking about where they are as
Speaker 3: a prospect right now, looking at the range of outcomes
Speaker 3: and the skills that they currently possess and what they
Speaker 3: need to work on. And that's really Pennock's game in
Speaker 3: a nutshell for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, on thousand percent in some context. We had to
Speaker 1: bake in here. He started his career in Indiana, spent
Speaker 1: four years there, had a season ending injury in every
Speaker 1: single one of them.
Speaker 2: Two of them were knee injuries.
Speaker 1: The medicals are going to be super important in Michael
Speaker 1: Pennick's evaluation. Deebro and I are not doctors, and we
Speaker 1: did not stay in a holiday and express last night,
Speaker 1: so we can't begin to speak to that. But you
Speaker 1: see the lack of mobility. I don't know if that
Speaker 1: came from the knee. You know, in Indiana he was
Speaker 1: slightly more mobile, but he was never like super duper
Speaker 1: good with that whatever. And it's not just you know,
Speaker 1: not waiting outside the pack or not winning breaking containment.
Speaker 1: He doesn't really do stuff like that. He doesn't throw
Speaker 1: on the run well. In fact, when he loses his
Speaker 1: platform at all, that's where his game starts to create
Speaker 1: her as a thrower, Michael Pennix. When he has that
Speaker 1: platform under him, he doesn't have to move. That's when
Speaker 1: he can start cooking and he can become the rhythm
Speaker 1: thrower and different stuff like that. When things start to devolve,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, the pressure thing, you can push him
Speaker 1: off his spot. That's where we can start doing stuff
Speaker 1: because he has a really hard time just quickly, you know,
Speaker 1: getting to another read, getting the ball out, and he's
Speaker 1: not going to beat anyone with his legs, so he
Speaker 1: has he has a difficulty, almost to the point of
Speaker 1: not being able to do it, of buying second chances
Speaker 1: back there in the pocket. He needs to do a
Speaker 1: better job of like quickly identifying the tertiary, the third
Speaker 1: you know, whatever option getting the ball up, because that's
Speaker 1: that's the only way, you know, his secondary options whatever.
Speaker 2: When there's that quick pressure to.
Speaker 3: Your's point on that, Yeah, he locks on his first
Speaker 3: read eight And that's something I wanted to bring up,
Speaker 3: like when we're going back and forth about Pinnicks, is
Speaker 3: you see him lock onto his first read and he
Speaker 3: there's plays where he will not come off of it.
Speaker 3: He'll just like fire it and force it in there.
Speaker 3: And you're talking about fifty to fifty balls, and it's like,
Speaker 3: there's something to be said for that type of aggression,
Speaker 3: but it's also I think it's more of a fundamental
Speaker 3: result of that he doesn't go through progression as well,
Speaker 3: because the other part that and I'm sure you were
Speaker 3: about to just get to this stoor. Is that asking
Speaker 3: Michael Pennix to read the middle of the field is
Speaker 3: also an adventure. There's times where he will not throw
Speaker 3: to the middle of the field until like if a
Speaker 3: wide receiver is running a crosser, that wide receiver literally
Speaker 3: has to cross his face before he's like, oh, look
Speaker 3: at that guy bow and he throws it that way,
Speaker 3: but you won't see him, see the guy identify him
Speaker 3: earlier in the progression and hit him on the run.
Speaker 3: So we're talking about shortcomings of his game. And the
Speaker 3: other thing I'll bring up here, man, is that with
Speaker 3: the idea of him being a sea it throw at guy,
Speaker 3: he limits yack opportunities for his wide receivers. He doesn't
Speaker 3: throw guys in stride. So you're talking about West Coast systems.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the low hanging fruitis is the
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. But a system like that really could
Speaker 3: hurt him where it's a lot of station to station things,
Speaker 3: and he he is the limiting factor with how he's
Speaker 3: playing quarterback in the act opportunities that he's allowing his
Speaker 3: wide receivers and skill players to have.
Speaker 2: Totally agree with that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a guy that played with three NFL receivers
Speaker 1: at Washington, guys who made some really good plays for him. Now,
Speaker 1: I like Penix's arm. I agree with you about the
Speaker 1: the wonky motion. He can get it all quick, I
Speaker 1: will say, despite the fact that you know, like when
Speaker 1: the guy on Twitter did the thing where he flipped
Speaker 1: the screen so then it was Michael Pennix as a
Speaker 1: right hander, and it just looks so weird when he
Speaker 1: throws them all whatever. But he does get the ball quickly,
Speaker 1: does not take many sacks at all, and doesn't admirably
Speaker 1: doesn't put the ball up for grabs. I would say
Speaker 1: as well, I like that stuff. But you know, when
Speaker 1: you're thinking about teams where he's a fit for, it's
Speaker 1: way more limited than with some of these other guys
Speaker 1: because you can't put Michael Pennocks in an offense where
Speaker 1: it asked the quarterback to get out onto the perimeter
Speaker 1: bootleg throw.
Speaker 2: On the run. You can't do that.
Speaker 1: It has to be the pure pocket passing stuff. And
Speaker 1: by the way, he has to have a good offensive
Speaker 1: line in front of him and hopefully a couple of
Speaker 1: receivers that can get the separation. Like, I totally agree
Speaker 1: with your take about the sea, throw a guy whatever.
Speaker 1: The anticipatory thing is hopefully something that he'll develop, But
Speaker 1: he was in college for six years and does not
Speaker 1: have it yet, so you're sort of hoping and praying
Speaker 1: as far as that goes. I had Pennix, I also
Speaker 1: have him five in mind, so you and I have
Speaker 1: him in the same spot in our rankings. Which brings
Speaker 1: us to mister bo Nix, who, in the consensus, is
Speaker 1: QB five an extremely polarizing prospect. He came into this
Speaker 1: process bo Nicks did a lot of people had him
Speaker 1: QB four on their list. You still see a lot
Speaker 1: of mock drafts out there where they have Bonicks in
Speaker 1: the middle of the first round.
Speaker 2: That confuses me, frankly, But how do you see it.
Speaker 3: I'll leave this off right now, and maybe this is
Speaker 3: a hot take. I don't really care. Bnix is my
Speaker 3: QB seven. I've got him buried in my ranks, so
Speaker 3: he's at the bottom of tier four for me. I've
Speaker 3: got him below Michael Pennix, I got him blow. Spencer
Speaker 3: Rattler and I talked about this on mobile. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: say it again here. I think bo Mix should not
Speaker 3: be a He's not a first round quarterback talent. Let's
Speaker 3: get that out of the way. He's not.
Speaker 2: Is he a second?
Speaker 3: I don't think he's a second. I think he's a third.
Speaker 3: I think he's a third round quarterback talent. Now do
Speaker 3: we see this every single year? Or one of these
Speaker 3: quarterbacks are multiple quarterbacks just because they are quarterbacks and
Speaker 3: in really the thirst for the position, they get pushed
Speaker 3: up the board. And a lot of times it's false,
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, come on, let's just be kind
Speaker 3: of Rewlinant. We can all talk about like, Okay, Malik
Speaker 3: will Is falling on the board and other quarterbacks Sam
Speaker 3: Howe falling on the board in that quarterback class. Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 3: you're happy with your first round selection and Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 3: who a guy that should never have gone in the
Speaker 3: first round? You happy about that? Guessing probably not, because
Speaker 3: you're probably gonna see another quarterback under under center for
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh this year. So Nicks is just the newest iteration
Speaker 3: of that. He's the guy that's gonna get pushed up
Speaker 3: the up the board and he shouldn't be. Man, I'm
Speaker 3: old enough to remember, and people want to talk about,
Speaker 3: Oh well, there's so much different version of Bo Knicks
Speaker 3: from Auburn to Oregon, Like that's he's a totally different player.
Speaker 3: No he's not. He's not a totally different player. He
Speaker 3: played a system. It was all system, and we want
Speaker 3: to talk about these game manager guys and things like that.
Speaker 3: It's like bow Knicks was operating in a system in
Speaker 3: Oregon where it was literally three step drop, get the
Speaker 3: ball out first raad screens, first raid screens. It was
Speaker 3: tailored to get the ball out of his freaking hands.
Speaker 3: And everybody wants to talk about, well, he's first in
Speaker 3: all these completion rate metrics, and he's he's really top
Speaker 3: of the board and pressure rates or a pressure you
Speaker 3: can't be pressured if you're getting rid of the freaking
Speaker 3: ball as fast as you possibly can, like bow Knicks.
Speaker 3: Last year, amongst this quarterback class, all FBS quarterbacks with
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty or more dropbacks, Knicks has the
Speaker 3: fourth lowest a dot, which is a screaming red flag.
Speaker 3: He has the ninth lowest time to throw, the ninth
Speaker 3: highest screen rate in FBS, and he led all of
Speaker 3: FBS in screen passing yards. If all of that doesn't say, Okay,
Speaker 3: this guy is not who you think he is. And
Speaker 3: a lot of this is system and all these puffed
Speaker 3: up numbers that people talk about on their podcast or
Speaker 3: talk about as far as like making the case for
Speaker 3: bow Nicks, We need to give context to those numbers
Speaker 3: because all of those numbers are false window dressing.
Speaker 1: One thousand percent. Yeah, you brought up the A dot
Speaker 1: in the time to throw. You know, I'll bring up
Speaker 1: a different guy that we're not going to get to
Speaker 1: because he's not in either of our top tens. Maybe
Speaker 1: just outside of it. Austin Reid, a Western Kentucky. Everyone
Speaker 1: knows that Western Kentucky has an air raid offense that
Speaker 1: is super duper gimmicky, and so they're going to bring
Speaker 1: that up immediately when they talk about Austin. Is a
Speaker 1: fair point. But Austin Reid, he had an eight point
Speaker 1: one A dot. Bonnicks had a six point eight and
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, the six point eight is bottom of
Speaker 1: the FBS, I mean way down there. Uh, the time
Speaker 1: to throw thing Austin two point four to three seconds
Speaker 1: per snap. Bonix was two point four to four on average,
Speaker 1: the same thing. It's a gimmicky deal. Bonnicks. You know
Speaker 1: another one like you look at big time throws. You
Speaker 1: know another one where you can get this Bonnicks four
Speaker 1: point one big time throw percent. I mean, Michael Pennicks
Speaker 1: seven point three, Drake May seven point five, Daniels was
Speaker 1: eight point four this past year, Caleb Williams six point two.
Speaker 2: I mean, I could go on and on and on.
Speaker 3: Context with that thor that he's been a throw rate
Speaker 3: in this class ranks seventy eight. So we want to
Speaker 3: talk about all the numbers for bo Knicks. Let's talk
Speaker 3: about that one. How do we interject that into the conversation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a guy that we're gonna talk about here
Speaker 1: in a second, Jayde and Daniels, so lash In twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, Jaydeen Daniels, he had a two point nine
Speaker 1: big time throw rate. I don't want to get too
Speaker 1: much into his evap, but before we get to him
Speaker 1: here in like ten minutes, but he had a two
Speaker 1: point nine coming into this season. You're and Jane Daniels
Speaker 1: had done things to mitigate putting the ball up for grabs,
Speaker 1: different like that. That's what he was doing well twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. But you wanted to see him could he
Speaker 1: get more of the aggression into his game? Stuff like
Speaker 1: that or else, I'm not going to trust him at
Speaker 1: this next level. Dane Daniels win from two point nine
Speaker 1: his big time throw ray to the eight.
Speaker 2: Point four whatever.
Speaker 1: Bonnicks went from three point seven and twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: to four point one. It's just the same gimmicky stuff.
Speaker 1: You put the ball on the perimeter to Troy Franklin
Speaker 1: and he's breaking tackles.
Speaker 2: You do the screen, the Bucky Irving.
Speaker 1: It's just all that sort of quick hitting concepts with
Speaker 1: really really good supporting talent around him. I credit Bonix
Speaker 1: from going from I'm sorry but a train wreck at
Speaker 1: Auburn to becoming what he did at Oregon where they
Speaker 1: were competing. He went to the Heisman ceremony, everything like that.
Speaker 1: He ran their system very well. But here is the
Speaker 1: biggest takeaway point. If you forget everything else that we
Speaker 1: just said about Bonnicks, you can't run the system and
Speaker 1: be viable that they did at Oregon in the NFL.
Speaker 1: You can't just throw perimeter screens a whole bunch. We're
Speaker 1: gonna spread the field. He's gonna get this snap, he's
Speaker 1: immediately going to turn to the left to a funnel screen.
Speaker 1: Then we'll get the defense over that way. Now we're
Speaker 1: gonna do it to the right. Now we're gonna do
Speaker 1: a screen up the middle. But now we're gonna do
Speaker 1: a slant to keep him off the t. You can't
Speaker 1: build an offense off that bs and then yak yardage.
Speaker 1: It's not going to translate.
Speaker 2: And you know that.
Speaker 1: There's an idea forwarded by people that like bon Necks
Speaker 1: of well, what happens when you put him in an
Speaker 1: offense where he gets a test down field. I'll tell
Speaker 1: you what happens because I've seen it. It's the Bonecks
Speaker 1: at Auburn. He's stunk at that.
Speaker 2: He was bent.
Speaker 1: And there's a two fold problem with that. Even the
Speaker 1: idea of making the logical leap of well, now he
Speaker 1: could that the two problems. Number one, his arm is
Speaker 1: pretty solid intermedia, I think you would agree with this.
Speaker 1: Dro He knows how to spin it, the vlo and
Speaker 1: different stuff like that. When he goes downfield though it
Speaker 1: is not a howitzer in a bazooka, he has to
Speaker 1: throw all of his body weight into it, and you
Speaker 1: see balls that will flutter up there. You'll see errant balls,
Speaker 1: balls that drift to the sideline, different stuff like he
Speaker 1: has a hard time correc wing the balls downfield because
Speaker 1: he's trying to get all that bomf into it to
Speaker 1: get it down there. I think problematic things come up
Speaker 1: with regards to that. The other one is just merely
Speaker 1: the fact of having Bonex sit back there in the pocket,
Speaker 1: be allowed to survey his options and trust him not
Speaker 1: to make a mistake, whether it's an air and throw,
Speaker 1: whether it's getting flustered into something different, stuff like that.
Speaker 1: I don't trust his pocket presence when he has to
Speaker 1: hang back there. And that was the biggest thing that
Speaker 1: Oregon's offensive system addressed for Bonecks. It wasn't Bonux's improvement
Speaker 1: that got him here, it's the fact that they never
Speaker 1: let him sit back there. It was just, you know,
Speaker 1: all that quick hitting concepts like we talked about, and
Speaker 1: when he did get to throw down the field, that's
Speaker 1: when the defense is already concerned about the running attack
Speaker 1: of a Buck Yervin Jordan James, and then all that
Speaker 1: quick hitting stuffed all the really good receivers they had.
Speaker 1: They had multiple tight ends that could play as well.
Speaker 1: Then you know, occasionally they would give him that shot.
Speaker 1: But like in an offense where it calls for it consistently,
Speaker 1: see consistently, and you want to attack all three levels.
Speaker 1: I don't trust him with that stuff. So that's that's
Speaker 1: where we fall on Bonix. I have Bonicks at QB six.
Speaker 1: Debro you have him at at QB seven, So we're
Speaker 1: a little bit lower than the consensus which has them
Speaker 1: at five. We're about to get into the fun stuff,
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Speaker 1: four quarterbacks in this class. This is where it gets
Speaker 1: super interesting. The entire rest of the draft will play
Speaker 1: out based on the decisions that teams make with these
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: It's like the butterfly effect thing. Whatever.
Speaker 1: We'll start with the number four quarterback in the consensus rankings.
Speaker 1: Michigan's JJ McCarthy, a guy who seems to in the
Speaker 1: past week have seen a bit of a stock surge
Speaker 1: as some people are getting into his film a little
Speaker 1: bit more banging the drum. I've been banging the drum
Speaker 1: for JJ, as you know. But de bro, I don't
Speaker 1: know if everyone has heard all your JJ McCarthy takes.
Speaker 1: I know you put out a tweet or two about him.
Speaker 1: Tell the people about JJ McCarthy and what you think
Speaker 1: about him.
Speaker 3: Dude, he's let's start this off the right way. Let's
Speaker 3: give him proper respect. JJ McCarthy is my QB two
Speaker 3: in this class, so he is QB four in consensus,
Speaker 3: I have him QB two and for everybody, let's let's again,
Speaker 3: let's start this off the right way. If you're going
Speaker 3: to come at me about any JJ McCarthy type of conversation,
Speaker 3: and you're starting that conversation with counting stats, go ahead,
Speaker 3: see the door. You could see the door. Go ahead,
Speaker 3: see the door. Come back, come back whenever you've got
Speaker 3: a better evaluation process, Because if that's where we're starting
Speaker 3: the conversation at, I've got questions about how you're evaluating quarterbacks,
Speaker 3: just off the jump, because look at JJ McCarthy's numberstore
Speaker 3: last year amongst all FBS quarterbacks with at least one
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty dropbacks, this man was tenth and pf
Speaker 3: passing great fourth and adjusted completion rate, eleventh yards per
Speaker 3: attempt twenty sixth and big time throw rate. He was
Speaker 3: also third and deep ball adjusted completion rate and fourth
Speaker 3: against pressure as far as completion rates go. And what
Speaker 3: we see in McCarthy is not only is he smart
Speaker 3: with the football, he is a playmaker from the pocket.
Speaker 3: He's adapted buying time with his legs. He is going.
Speaker 3: He is willing to go off script if needed. He'll
Speaker 3: move around in the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, and
Speaker 3: snap off a rocket. This guy has got a cannon
Speaker 3: for an arm. He throws a ton of stuff online.
Speaker 3: His entire film is littered with dots. And if you
Speaker 3: want to talk about like the box scorer versus the
Speaker 3: reality of how good he played quarterback, just I will
Speaker 3: charge you go watch the game versus Nebraska, That game
Speaker 3: itself in twenty twenty three. That game itself, He's not
Speaker 3: gonna wow you with the box score numbers. But that
Speaker 3: game we saw JJ McCarthy fit in tight window throw
Speaker 3: in between multiple defenders. I think it was a touchdown
Speaker 3: Roman Wilson. That was beautiful. There was also multiple times
Speaker 3: where he was outside the pocket, changing arm angles, throwing
Speaker 3: around defenders and deal in showing the parts of his
Speaker 3: evaluation that people do not give him credit for. So
Speaker 3: I just I think that we are mischaracterizing who JJ
Speaker 3: McCarthy is based off accounting stats, my comp, your comp
Speaker 3: because this Yeah, no, let's marry this a little bit.
Speaker 3: You tell me your thoughts about JJ McCarthy, and then
Speaker 3: we'll get into the comp that both of us arrived again,
Speaker 3: we talk about Midnight Conversation Store. Both of us arrived
Speaker 3: at this comp for rich. I can't say it. I
Speaker 3: can't say it.
Speaker 2: Just gave it away.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna set it up good, so good. So
Speaker 1: over the weekend I was on I went to a
Speaker 1: live show and went up on stage, and you know,
Speaker 1: I'm in Minnesota, so and people have seen my JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy take by this point. So some of the vikings
Speaker 1: fans are getting excited whatnot. And I was asked that day,
Speaker 1: who is your comp for JJ McCarthy, And I kept
Speaker 1: hedging and hedging more more, saying, you know, this is
Speaker 1: a guy who's been calmed to I don't like that
Speaker 1: comp for that reason. Here's another comp that's out there.
Speaker 1: I don't like it for that reason. And they kept
Speaker 1: pushing me, give us your comp, give us your comp
Speaker 1: And I didn't want to say, cause he's a super
Speaker 1: difficult guy to comp for a reason that I'll talk
Speaker 1: about here in a second. But they were pushing me
Speaker 1: and pushing me, and finally I just said, rich Gannon
Speaker 1: at his apex. Yes, rich Gannon at his apex. However,
Speaker 1: rich Gannon, it took him years to get his shot.
Speaker 1: He was way further behind on the developmental line of continuum.
Speaker 1: So it's not perfect in terms of that, but in
Speaker 1: terms of the play style, that's like, think about when
Speaker 1: rich Gannon was awesome. That's what you're getting. If JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy hits his ceiling similar body type. You have a
Speaker 1: guy in deebro We agreed on this, a guy that
Speaker 1: we think would run in the high four fives if
Speaker 1: he does end up testing and the over the summer.
Speaker 1: I think the the scouting service the NFL has they
Speaker 1: put a four to six on him. But we've seen
Speaker 1: we've we've seen some reports that he was running faster
Speaker 1: in their facility, stuff like that reports season just from
Speaker 1: his tape. I would be surprised if he is not
Speaker 1: in the four fives. He is super fast. I put
Speaker 1: out a tweet on Twitter today. I you know, like
Speaker 1: every day you see something with his film where you're like,
Speaker 1: that's really cool. True freshman season he gets in. He's
Speaker 1: running out of the pistol with Blake Korum behind him,
Speaker 1: and they they ran this play against Iowa in the
Speaker 1: Big Ten title game, but they got this big hole
Speaker 1: and so Korum is now up the field. He hands
Speaker 1: it off to Korum. JJ McCarthy runs from behind this
Speaker 1: play and zooms past Blake Korum like forty five yardiel
Speaker 1: so he could make a blocket like the fifteen yard
Speaker 1: line of two guys where McCarthy gets it. So he
Speaker 1: runs around Korum. He's faster than Blake Korum for sure
Speaker 1: gets around Korum. And then there was two dudes who
Speaker 1: were descended on him around the sideline and McCarthy basically
Speaker 1: acted like a human shield. And so then you know
Speaker 1: Korum is able to get in the athleticism. Is there
Speaker 1: one thing, deebre I think you didn't go quite far enough,
Speaker 1: and so I have to about his game and this
Speaker 1: is this gets into the rich Gannon thing. I think
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy is a potential prodigy of an off script,
Speaker 1: off platform out of the pocket throwing on the run
Speaker 1: quarterback prospect. Yes, you don't see those skills that you
Speaker 1: see on JJ McCarthy's tape in those areas with other dudes.
Speaker 1: It's truly special. It's not just the athleticism, it's not
Speaker 1: just the mobility. It's not just the vision and the
Speaker 1: sense to know when is the appropriate time to break containment,
Speaker 1: get out on the perimeter, different stuff like that. It's
Speaker 1: also I saw former Michigan player had brought in. This
Speaker 1: is a great point. JJ McCarthy always, even when he's
Speaker 1: on the move, even when he's running fairly fast, you know,
Speaker 1: to get around a free rush or whatever it is,
Speaker 1: he always keeps that upper body cock to throw and
Speaker 1: his eyes downfield. So he's always like this gun that's
Speaker 1: ready to fire, even when you have to account.
Speaker 2: For his legs. And this is where he gets really dangerous.
Speaker 1: When you start thinking about his projector to the NFL,
Speaker 1: you start getting really excited because you'll see on tape
Speaker 1: he all of a sudden he's outside of the pocket
Speaker 1: and that linebacker that's out there, you know he's thinking like,
Speaker 1: oh man, I gotta crash down or else. This dude
Speaker 1: who runs a four or five or maybe even low
Speaker 1: four fives or wherever it is there he's gonna break containment.
Speaker 1: I've seen this on our film study, and he's gonna
Speaker 1: be on the open field. He's gonna take fifteen yards
Speaker 1: real quick, and then he'll get out of bonds or
Speaker 1: elslide whatever, he'll steal that. If I don't crash down
Speaker 1: on him, then he comes down all of a sudden.
Speaker 1: Now you have more spacing, and McCarthy throws these friggin
Speaker 1: frozen ropes.
Speaker 2: I've seen people.
Speaker 1: On Twitter that were nitpicking his arms strength and even worse,
Speaker 1: trying to suggest that he does not have a strong arm.
Speaker 1: And I think that comes one from what you're talking about,
Speaker 1: the box score scouting, and also they just haven't haven't
Speaker 1: seen him whatever, and the fact that when you did
Speaker 1: see Michigan, they weren't taking these egregious shots downfield a bunch,
Speaker 1: mostly because they were really good, in part because of
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy. They would get leads, they wouldn't have to
Speaker 1: take these crazy chances.
Speaker 3: Whatever.
Speaker 2: You can't knock that dude's arm.
Speaker 1: You don't see guy like you'll see JJ McCarthy do
Speaker 1: the thing where he's running to the right whatever, he's
Speaker 1: surveying his options, all of his momentum body weight going
Speaker 1: to the one side and all of a sudden, all
Speaker 1: the way downfield, thirty yards downfield, but to the left side,
Speaker 1: on the outside of the left hashes. He'll see someone
Speaker 1: down there emerge open whatever, and he will throw it
Speaker 1: across his body on a friggin line frozen rope, all
Speaker 1: the way across the field against his body weight. You
Speaker 1: don't see guys that even notice that that guy that
Speaker 1: they could throw Tom certainly they wouldn't have the gumption
Speaker 1: for it, nor the arm. You don't make that throw
Speaker 1: or throws left that again, you mentioned it littered on
Speaker 1: his film. Without having a really really snappy arm. He
Speaker 1: has no problems with the arm strength thing. He can
Speaker 1: make every single throw. And that special sauce of JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy's to find the answer to the question in the
Speaker 1: moment when everything is breaking down, sort of the opposite
Speaker 1: thing that we were talking about Penix, that we were
Speaker 1: nitpicking him about.
Speaker 2: With McCarthy, that is his special sauce.
Speaker 1: He is going to figure it out and he's not
Speaker 1: going to put the ball in harm's way and deep
Speaker 1: bro the last point I'll do about this so I
Speaker 1: don't just take an hour talking about JJ McCarthy. You
Speaker 1: mentioned people, they'll bring up his counting stats and stuff
Speaker 1: like that to disparage him. It's not that you can't
Speaker 1: talk about statistics when you're discussing JJ McCarthy. It's that
Speaker 1: they're discussing the wrong ones, the ones that don't matter
Speaker 1: that you know where it's based on scheme, it's based
Speaker 1: on gamescript whatever. You just look at the other stats,
Speaker 1: the stats that matter, and all of a sudden, JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy starts shining, including above some of these guys who
Speaker 1: everyone says are the top three guys. De bro there,
Speaker 1: let me ask you a trivia question. There's only one
Speaker 1: quarterback in this entire class who is above the seventieth
Speaker 1: percentile in standard drop back percentile, ad or be on
Speaker 1: the sticks percentile, avoids negative play percentile, under pressure percentile,
Speaker 1: outside the pocket percentile, third and fourth down percentile, and
Speaker 1: positive positively grated thrill percentile. That's seven different categories. Name
Speaker 1: that quarterback who is seventy percent or above in each.
Speaker 2: One of them.
Speaker 3: Well, Alex, I think that'll be JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 1: Not only is it JJ McCarthy, Just for context, there's
Speaker 1: not another quarterback in this.
Speaker 2: Class, who's even fifty fifth or above?
Speaker 1: And all seven McCarthy seventy second or seventy second is
Speaker 1: his worse percentile on those You're just not looking at
Speaker 1: the correct stet.
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with any of that. Just to put
Speaker 3: the final bow on our JJ McCarthy love letter, just yes,
Speaker 3: if you google rich Gannon four five, eight forty times
Speaker 3: at the combine, we were already talked, right, JJ McCarthy's
Speaker 3: probably gonna run in the mid four fives. All these
Speaker 3: other comps out there that I've heard so far, Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 3: some other ones floating out there, they give exactly. They
Speaker 3: do not give a no better throw around the run
Speaker 3: to nod to how athletic he.
Speaker 1: Is, thousand percent super duper underrated athletes, super underrated in
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of different areas. I think as more
Speaker 1: people get into the tape, you're gonna see JJ McCarthy rise,
Speaker 1: when really this is the dude he is. It's just
Speaker 1: people haven't gotten into the tape yet. So Debro has
Speaker 1: QB two, I have McCarthy QB three. Moving on, Deebro
Speaker 1: to the consensus QB three on the consensus board, LS
Speaker 1: used Jade and Daniels, a guy who earlier in his
Speaker 1: career handpicked by a different NFL head coach to run
Speaker 1: his offense. HERM Edwards back at Arizona State when Herm
Speaker 1: brought Jayden Daniels in and played him right away. He
Speaker 1: was this tall string bean who was super athletic, how
Speaker 1: to solid arm, but was as raw as could possibly be.
Speaker 1: But Herm Edwards was like, I believe in this guy,
Speaker 1: and YadA YadA, and they sort of went through the
Speaker 1: growing pains for a couple of years. Then obviously the
Speaker 1: stuff that happened with Herm there was some scandal there
Speaker 1: and everyone got fired and different stuff like that, and
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels ends up at LSU when right after they
Speaker 1: had hired Brian Kelly, LSU was talking and by the way,
Speaker 1: at the same time to Lincoln Riley, who I mentioned
Speaker 1: before different reality sliding doors. You might have seen Lincoln
Speaker 1: Riley and Caleb Williams at LSU. You might have seen
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels go somewhere else. It would have been interesting
Speaker 1: to see if Jaden Daniels his game had skyrocketed up
Speaker 1: in the past few years.
Speaker 2: If he gone somewhere else, But it did.
Speaker 1: He found himself with Brian Kelly, and the first year
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, he saw a.
Speaker 2: Big jump up in his play.
Speaker 1: This past season, though, he went nuclear deep, bro tell
Speaker 1: us what you like about Jade Daniels.
Speaker 3: All right, so I'm gonna preface this before I people
Speaker 3: get insane about what I'm about to say.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: You talked about these top four quarterbacks of this class
Speaker 3: and how you can approach them and how people are
Speaker 3: going to rank them. I look at these four guys
Speaker 3: are in a tier by themselves. I do not look
Speaker 3: at them as having that far of differentiating skill sets
Speaker 3: or upside to where this one guy is just head and.
Speaker 1: Shoulders, different different skill sets, but qualitatively very close.
Speaker 3: Right, That's exactly right. I look at any one of
Speaker 3: these guys like, if you're asking who are my tier
Speaker 3: one quarterbacks right now, I could drill it down to
Speaker 3: my top two guys. But really, at the broader scope
Speaker 3: of this, all four of these quarterbacks that are at
Speaker 3: the top of this class and everybody knows that, are
Speaker 3: in one tier by themselves. So just to mention that here,
Speaker 3: and we're going to talk about everybody else's QB one
Speaker 3: a little bit later. In this show. But I'm going
Speaker 3: to tell you right now, Jade and Daniels is my
Speaker 3: QB one of this class. I freaking love Jane Daniels.
Speaker 3: His is littered with anticipatory throws, easy velocity, flick of
Speaker 3: the wrist forty five fifty yards down the field. And
Speaker 3: we're not even talking about his skill set as a rusher. Now,
Speaker 3: there are certain parts of his game like do I
Speaker 3: want him out there in the middle of the field
Speaker 3: taking off and absorbing these massive hits. No, he needs
Speaker 3: to protect himself better as a rusher duck outside of bounds.
Speaker 3: You know, if you're gonna go over the middle of
Speaker 3: the field, slide, please slide because the build and his
Speaker 3: slider frame. And now, can he gain five to ten
Speaker 3: pounds at the NFL level in NFL strength program, Yes,
Speaker 3: I think that's probably gonna happen. But if you're looking
Speaker 3: at the totality of his skill set, his quarterback play
Speaker 3: is refreshing man out of all of these guys, when
Speaker 3: we could bucket these guys. Whether you want to talk
Speaker 3: about him, we're going to talk about him later. Joe Milton,
Speaker 3: Spencer Rattler, Bo Nix, Michael pennox A lot of these
Speaker 3: guys that are first read, quick passing, first read screens,
Speaker 3: all that type of stuff. Jane Daniels consistent operated in
Speaker 3: a pro style offense where there are po elements things
Speaker 3: like that. Sure, but he went through progressions, does it
Speaker 3: extremely well, and you're seeing there are a ton of
Speaker 3: reps on film where he's got quiet feet in the pocket.
Speaker 3: He's getting to his third read consistently. He managed to
Speaker 3: get to his next read per PFF on fourteen point
Speaker 3: eight percent of his dropbacks. This is not a quarterback
Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about it that gets tunnel vision and
Speaker 3: locked onto his first read, which, again, you talk about panics,
Speaker 3: you talk about nicks, you can bring up those things.
Speaker 3: These are the quarterbacks in this class. You can bring
Speaker 3: that up. You cannot bring that up in the same
Speaker 3: sentence as Jade Daniels. So we've already talked about the
Speaker 3: ability with his legs, we talked about the ability with
Speaker 3: his arm, and he is a truly anticipatory passer. This
Speaker 3: guy is hitting wide receivers before they cut loose out
Speaker 3: of the brakes, before the top of their stem. He
Speaker 3: is the guy that if you're in a timing based offense,
Speaker 3: you're gonna love Jane Daniels because he's gonna fit into
Speaker 3: that type of offense. And I want to mention in
Speaker 3: this last before to kick this to youth or Jane
Speaker 3: Daniels is a guy that doesn't even need to use
Speaker 3: his legs to be a first round talent. Right now
Speaker 3: in this class, you want to talk about just his
Speaker 3: ability for the pocket. Who he can he could consistently
Speaker 3: win from the pocket on every single snap. He is
Speaker 3: a pocket quarterback that also happens to have Sonic the
Speaker 3: hedgehog type of legs. So does he need that type
Speaker 3: of rushing utility to be like, oh my lord, look
Speaker 3: at Jaden Daniels. No, he can win from the pocket.
Speaker 3: He's profisient from the pocket. He can make every freaking
Speaker 3: throw that you need, and he is a down field,
Speaker 3: go ball, deep ball assassin.
Speaker 2: One percent.
Speaker 1: You and I now have the same comp on Jane Daniels,
Speaker 1: just like we did Aaron McCarthy, except in this case
Speaker 1: it was because you gave me a comp and I
Speaker 1: was like, that's perfect, and I hadn't seen that anywhere,
Speaker 1: and huh, I was struggling with Jane Daniels to comp him.
Speaker 1: And then you tall this name out and I was like,
Speaker 1: that's that's it. I immediately stole and told you I
Speaker 1: was gonna steal. Tell people who you comm Daniels.
Speaker 3: To Randall Cunningham Man as a guy that people talked
Speaker 3: about the frame. Now in the context of this, does
Speaker 3: he have the raw armstring that Cunningham had. No, I
Speaker 3: don't think he's on that level, but he's not far
Speaker 3: off of a dude.
Speaker 2: Pretty close though, right close, Pretty yeah, pretty close.
Speaker 1: Not only can Daniels get it down there, he has
Speaker 1: that sort of beautiful rainbow type arc to it. And
Speaker 1: the way he plays his balls downfield is eye opening. Uh,
Speaker 1: he can like and you don't want to you don't
Speaker 1: want to give him, like, you know, encourage this a
Speaker 1: ton because you know it could get you into bad
Speaker 1: habits in the NFL if it went too far. But
Speaker 1: I saw that guy beat double coverage downfield multiple times
Speaker 1: of just dropping it in, you know, in the bucket
Speaker 1: or whatever, or fitting it into a window, whatever, and
Speaker 1: then certainly downfield up to the top of the intermediate
Speaker 1: sector and different stuff like that. You mentioned how good
Speaker 1: he is in the pocket, somebody's gotten way better at
Speaker 1: He was terrible in the pocket at Arizona State. And
Speaker 1: I've talked about this in other shows and different stuff
Speaker 1: like this, about how he always had all the tools,
Speaker 1: but Arizona State the game was moving too fast for him,
Speaker 1: and the second he would start to get pressure or
Speaker 1: he would sort of lose his process because of that.
Speaker 1: It was like this chain reaction where everything it would
Speaker 1: start to devolve. He would forget his mechanics, he would
Speaker 1: you know, start thinking about you know, like the plan
Speaker 1: of attack wouldn't be there as far as the second one,
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, you have like a chicken
Speaker 1: with his head cutting off, running around or whatever, and
Speaker 1: you would see Aaron throws. You would see some terrible
Speaker 1: decisions where he'd throw it right into the chest plate
Speaker 1: of a linebacker, different stuff like that, or he'd take
Speaker 1: an enormous hit, or he'd you know, get stripped sack
Speaker 1: from behind when he should have been taken care of it.
Speaker 1: You don't see like these past couple of years, but
Speaker 1: especially this last year, you literally don't see that.
Speaker 2: It is not only is at night and day, wouldn't
Speaker 2: you just wouldn't.
Speaker 1: Recognize the Jade and Daniels from Arizona State against the
Speaker 1: Jade Danis from LSU because the game has slowed down
Speaker 1: so much for him that now his physical skill set
Speaker 1: is allowed to shine right because he doesn't have to
Speaker 1: think about that stuff, and the other stuff isn't evolving.
Speaker 2: It's just he can take full advantage.
Speaker 1: There's a great anecdote about how this happened where LSU
Speaker 1: has this simulator that they would put him into and
Speaker 1: he would get to see all the defense, get to
Speaker 1: have all the players, see what the coverage would be
Speaker 1: like whatever, have his whole alignment out there, and then
Speaker 1: they would run simulated plays and he was supposed to
Speaker 1: denote the pressure where it's my first read is it
Speaker 1: there is that guy covered to I have to go
Speaker 1: to the second one, the third one, whatever.
Speaker 2: You know. He started doing this, Jade and Daniels did
Speaker 2: when he got to LSU.
Speaker 1: They said by the time he left, they had sped
Speaker 1: the thing up every single time to either one and
Speaker 1: a half or even double the speed. He was playing
Speaker 1: games on fast forward before they started. And so it's
Speaker 1: no wonder when he goes out there and he slicing
Speaker 1: in dice in Alabama, slicing and dison ol miss like
Speaker 1: I mean a procession. He was just burning it down
Speaker 1: wherever he went or whatever. That's why de bro that
Speaker 1: one of the things that we talked about when we
Speaker 1: talked about on the phone the first time, how quiet
Speaker 1: his feet are in the pocket. He's just so frick
Speaker 1: so because he knows if he's if it's there, you're
Speaker 1: gonna kill you. But he can also wait for a bet,
Speaker 1: right because he knows that acceleration that he has out
Speaker 1: of the pocket. He squirts right out right like he talks,
Speaker 1: and then he's out and all of a sudden, he's
Speaker 1: in the second level before you, you know, the defensive
Speaker 1: backs have even turned around. And now you've got a
Speaker 1: problem because you've got a guy who is either low
Speaker 1: four fours or high four threes in speed my opinion,
Speaker 1: just just saying.
Speaker 3: One miles an hour and Lsu practices the four to
Speaker 3: four speed is five real, man.
Speaker 1: I love him when he's in the pocket. I love
Speaker 1: his game in the pocket. I love his composure in
Speaker 1: the pocket. Now and the fact that he keeps his
Speaker 1: base under him. Just a very small thing for him
Speaker 1: to work on as he goes to the NFL. Is
Speaker 1: the second Daniels pulls it and I don't have a
Speaker 1: qualma about when he does. I want to be very
Speaker 1: clear about this. Even though he's an awesome runner, it's
Speaker 1: not you know, you hear about this in the past
Speaker 1: with some super mobile guys of like, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: the first second of danger, he's out of there.
Speaker 2: That's not Daniels. He will wait in there as long
Speaker 2: as he can.
Speaker 1: But when he tucks, he's always running. He Daniels doesn't.
Speaker 1: He uses his legs to beat you down the field,
Speaker 1: right like as a runner. I would like to see
Speaker 1: him use his legs a bit more in the pocket,
Speaker 1: manipulating that resetting so we can buy him some more
Speaker 1: time because he's such a good thrower. And I also
Speaker 1: want him to be able to keep the defense off
Speaker 1: the beat of ascent when he does pull it down,
Speaker 1: because right now, if that part of his game remained.
Speaker 1: In NFL scutting reports every week, you're gonna see the
Speaker 1: defensive coach telling their guys the second you see that
Speaker 1: ball go down, peel off and start crashing downhill because
Speaker 1: now we have to corral this guy. I'd just like
Speaker 1: to see a tad more nuance with that. But as
Speaker 1: far as the killer as a thrower, as far as
Speaker 1: being awesome as a scrambler, the quiet feet, the year
Speaker 1: over year progression or the improvement year over year over year.
Speaker 1: I mean, now it's like this, this developmental art just
Speaker 1: shooting up.
Speaker 2: All that different stuff is just aces with him.
Speaker 1: So I will absolutely not put it past him to
Speaker 1: improve on some of these nuances that we're talking about.
Speaker 1: He's already he's already mastered a whole bunch of other
Speaker 1: things that we never thought he was gonna be good at.
Speaker 2: Debra. You have him as the QB one right now.
Speaker 1: I have him as QB two, But I'm not putting
Speaker 1: it out of the realm of possibility that he will
Speaker 1: not end as my QB one in this class. I
Speaker 1: love Jayden Daniels' game. Moving on to the second consensus
Speaker 1: quarterback on the overall board at this moment is Drake May,
Speaker 1: a guy that I mentioned before has been QB two
Speaker 1: basically since the end of the twenty twenty two season,
Speaker 1: or in the latter stages of it. The second that
Speaker 1: you move on to that draft class projecting forward, it's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be KLEB one, then it's gonna be Drake
Speaker 1: May two. That is still holding serve in terms of
Speaker 1: the court of public opinion, you might have you might
Speaker 1: have already sort of tipped off where you're going with
Speaker 1: this because you some of the other rankings before this.
Speaker 2: But curious how you see that.
Speaker 1: You're someone that covers the NFL is so close during
Speaker 1: the season, you don't get like dragged into some of
Speaker 1: these narratives like someone like myself does, who covers college
Speaker 1: football every single day, and you know whatever. So you
Speaker 1: come into the tape with fresh eyes on these guys
Speaker 1: and that sometimes you have you have different takes. Curious
Speaker 1: what you saw when you broke down Drake May's film.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Drake May is my QB four of the class.
Speaker 3: And this is not to say I don't like Drake May.
Speaker 3: I like Drake May. I think we just have to
Speaker 3: understand who Drake May is. I don't see a lot
Speaker 3: of the rushing utility, uh, translating into the NFL. Heard
Speaker 3: the same things about Sam Howe. Is he coming out
Speaker 3: as a prospect and people are like, oh, the rushing,
Speaker 3: the rushing, Yeah, he didn't see that translated to the NFL,
Speaker 3: did you. I don't think we're gonna see that for
Speaker 3: Drake May either as a guy that really is gonna
Speaker 3: have to make his He's gonna have to cash his
Speaker 3: paycheck every single week from the pocket. Now, can he
Speaker 3: offer you some offscript ability, Yeah, that's in that's in
Speaker 3: his bag. He could do that, he could roll out,
Speaker 3: he could boot the things about Drake May's game, and
Speaker 3: the first thing that I want to bring up here
Speaker 3: is that there's just easy velocity th or like the
Speaker 3: guy is just a downfield sniper. Like you're looking at
Speaker 3: a player in Drake May that was over the last
Speaker 3: two years was eleventh and eighth in a just a
Speaker 3: completion rate on downfield throws. So that is where I
Speaker 3: think he's really going to allow himself a ceiling in
Speaker 3: the NFL is put him into an offense where they're
Speaker 3: going to stretch the field. That is something he's going
Speaker 3: to be consistently asked to do because he can do it. Now,
Speaker 3: can he mitigate pressure? Can he play off script Yes?
Speaker 3: There are also parts of his game, like you'll see
Speaker 3: some reps where he'll bail clean pockets. You'll see other
Speaker 3: reps where he's in scramble mode. And this is something
Speaker 3: that I wanted to bring up, especially because Drake May's
Speaker 3: off script ability is going to get talked about a
Speaker 3: lot in this process. And I'm not saying he doesn't
Speaker 3: have that ability. But the limiting factor that I saw,
Speaker 3: at least on some reps for Drake May when he
Speaker 3: does go off script and where entering scramble mode, is
Speaker 3: that he'll get locked on to one player in that
Speaker 3: process and he's like he's rotating towards one side of
Speaker 3: the field. He's locked onto one receiver. You don't see
Speaker 3: that on some of these other guys, like especially we
Speaker 3: want to talk about J McCarthy. JJ McCarthy, whenever he's
Speaker 3: in off script mode, and he is, he's basically he's
Speaker 3: he's the painter and now he's gonna sit here and
Speaker 3: what he's gonna do with the canvas in front of him.
Speaker 3: Drake May, that canvas is half the size or a
Speaker 3: third or the fourth of the size of somebody like
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy or some of these other quarterbacks. He'll lock
Speaker 3: onto one wide receiver and either he completes the play
Speaker 3: and you'll see like Okay, here's a splash play, or
Speaker 3: he has to chuck it out of bounds. He limits
Speaker 3: himself in terms of he's now become the painter that
Speaker 3: decided that I'm going to work with a smaller canvas
Speaker 3: and not use the entire field. So I like Drake
Speaker 3: may And he has all the arm talent to make
Speaker 3: all the throws in the NFL. He's a guy that
Speaker 3: I think we're going to talk about. The athleticism is
Speaker 3: going to be a little bit overblown, the rushing of
Speaker 3: ability is going to be a little bit overblown. But
Speaker 3: can he win from the pocket? Does he have the
Speaker 3: arm talent to make all the throws? Yes? So I
Speaker 3: like Drake Maye. He's a He's a through and through,
Speaker 3: a first round quarterback talent, a mid to high end
Speaker 3: first round quarterback talents. I don't want to take anything
Speaker 3: away from this in my QB four ranking of him
Speaker 3: versus QB two in consensus.
Speaker 1: So I also have Drake may A's QB four And
Speaker 1: I also want to give a little bit of context
Speaker 1: there as far as saying like that might be you know,
Speaker 1: if like, if it was right now I'm making my
Speaker 1: big board, he might be number four overall my big board.
Speaker 1: Just the way that I do it, I mean, like,
Speaker 1: and I do project him to be a good NFL starter.
Speaker 1: I just think we got four dudes and this agreed
Speaker 1: big he's one of yeah and I and I think
Speaker 1: I speak for you two d bro and saying this,
Speaker 1: we don't this is going to come across as a scandalist.
Speaker 2: Take both of us ranking.
Speaker 1: I mean, we each got to this conclusion independently, but
Speaker 1: ranking him QB four or And what I don't want
Speaker 1: to get lost in there is we both really like
Speaker 1: Drake May. It's just JJ McCarthy sort of blew both
Speaker 1: of our socks off, and then you have the two
Speaker 1: other guys whatever.
Speaker 2: But Drake May is really good.
Speaker 1: And to return to a point I was talking about before,
Speaker 1: these four quarterbacks are all so different and it for
Speaker 1: me qualitatively. It's very close there when you're literally with
Speaker 1: all four of them, and in some cases you might
Speaker 1: parse the tie breaker as this is my system, like
Speaker 1: this is this guy is a better fit for my system.
Speaker 1: I don't know how some of these NFL teams will
Speaker 1: will end up seeing it, but you know, that's sort
Speaker 1: of how I see it. As far as Drake May goes,
Speaker 1: I totally agree with what you're saying. I think his
Speaker 1: athleticism has been a bit overblown when really people should
Speaker 1: be talking about McCarthy as that guy. But Drake May,
Speaker 1: he ended up piling up some rushing yards and you
Speaker 1: brought up a great piece of context on that in
Speaker 1: similar way that that Sam Howell didn't, and so he
Speaker 1: gets some credit for that. Drake may not a be athlete,
Speaker 1: but that's not a part of his game that you
Speaker 1: know is going to be crazy dangerous at the next level.
Speaker 1: He can steal some yards as a runner when he tucks.
Speaker 1: You can also put him on some design concepts. I'll say,
Speaker 1: very tough kid, very tough kid. You know he is
Speaker 1: not the pre He came in as a big time
Speaker 1: recruit and obviously had success right away, but he's not
Speaker 1: like he's not a guy that is shying away from
Speaker 1: contact at all. Drake May, some of my notes, big
Speaker 1: strapping pocket passer with a huge arm, has enough athleticism
Speaker 1: to force defenses to account for him.
Speaker 2: As a runner we'll tuck and run and.
Speaker 1: Can be used on design concepts as well when he
Speaker 1: has his base under him. He is extremely accurate. Particularly
Speaker 1: appreciate his downfield touch. Numerous instances of testing double coverage
Speaker 1: winning due to his combination of power and touch, fitting
Speaker 1: balls into very small spots down the field you want
Speaker 1: him in the pocket. The deep bre This will go
Speaker 1: to exactly what you were talking about. He needs that
Speaker 1: platform under him. Anything the defense can do to affect
Speaker 1: that increases the odds of an inaccurate throw. Something I
Speaker 1: noticed on his film his accuracy can be affected by
Speaker 1: pressure in a couple of different ways. Right when it's
Speaker 1: in his face, you'll notice that his his base can
Speaker 1: get a little bit wonky, or he speeds up his process.
Speaker 1: That's where you start to see the ball dying before
Speaker 1: it gets there, or the ball going left or right,
Speaker 1: because it's like the sped up.
Speaker 2: Oh, I gotta get it out. I gotta get it out.
Speaker 2: And now he's not mind.
Speaker 3: The interior pressure. I want to bring that, bring that up.
Speaker 3: A lot of those reps are interior pressure when it happens.
Speaker 1: I saw some other instances beyond even that, because that's
Speaker 1: like the overt like, oh, you know, the guy's about
Speaker 1: to hit him, so you know, like whatever. The other
Speaker 1: thing I noticed is like when the pocket was collapsing
Speaker 1: on him, but the pressure wasn't there quite yet. I
Speaker 1: also notice a propensity to him to speed up his
Speaker 1: process and turns of that, and I noticed some errancy
Speaker 1: there too.
Speaker 3: He'll be wearing in his pockets. He'll he'll leave some
Speaker 3: of those parts where it's like it's workable and he
Speaker 3: could step up in the pocket. He'll fail. He'll he'll
Speaker 3: roll out of those pockets sometimes. Now it's it's not
Speaker 3: a consistent thing, but it does happen.
Speaker 2: That's a part of his game.
Speaker 1: He needs to get better at, right because you're going
Speaker 1: to make your living in the NFL from the pocket.
Speaker 1: The things of the pocket manipulation, the things of like, yeah, kid,
Speaker 1: the pocket is collapsing, but there's not someone who is
Speaker 1: about to sack you.
Speaker 2: Right now.
Speaker 1: You have about another second. You can set your feet
Speaker 1: and then square your shoulders and then throw whatever. You
Speaker 1: don't need to speed it up, like you know whatever,
Speaker 1: because your accuracy is getting wonky when you do that.
Speaker 1: Those are a couple of things that he needs to
Speaker 1: work on. But love the arm. He's athletic enough. The
Speaker 1: frame is obviously ideal. Everything like that. I understand why
Speaker 1: people like him. I just have a couple more of
Speaker 1: the questions, and I think the utility is a little
Speaker 1: more limited in some of these regards. And for instance,
Speaker 1: Jaj McCarthy, you're not gonna win outside the pocket. You're
Speaker 1: Drake May. You can't do some of these different concepts.
Speaker 1: He can't find some of these answers in the moment
Speaker 1: when everything's breaking down a him for those reasons that
Speaker 1: go McCarthy. Drake May as a what would have been
Speaker 1: his sophomore year. I think he was technically a red
Speaker 1: shirt freshman, But in twenty twenty two, he started out
Speaker 1: the year was just destroying worlds. He was absolutely amazing.
Speaker 1: And in the last two to three games I forgot
Speaker 1: when the cutoff was. He struggled down the stretch. It
Speaker 1: was like, once we got to like mid November, the
Speaker 1: end of his season, it was it was something totally different,
Speaker 1: and now he was struggling. Well, what was happening was
Speaker 1: there was a team that he played in mid November.
Speaker 1: I wish I could remember exactly what team in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two this was. But they had a brilliant idea,
Speaker 1: let's just drop eight every time. Every time he goes
Speaker 1: back to the rope, we're dropping eight. And Drake May
Speaker 1: saw the eight guys out there and was like, what
Speaker 1: the hell do I do? It was like he had
Speaker 1: landed on the moon and you started to see the
Speaker 1: same howl things of like I don't know what to do.
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do, panicking and just I'm
Speaker 1: talking and running, and so that the passing stats came
Speaker 1: way down. He obviously wasn't comfortable testing the windows whatever.
Speaker 1: It was just like all his zones were flooded. Wasn't
Speaker 1: seeing the receivers open whatnot. That happened down the stretch
Speaker 1: there in twenty twenty two. And then over the offseason,
Speaker 1: Phil Longo, who has worked with you know, a bunch
Speaker 1: of NFL quarterbacks going Matt Corral's guy before that, whatever,
Speaker 1: Sam Howel. He goes from UNC to Wisconsin and joins
Speaker 1: Luke Fickl staff. Then they had a new offensive coordinator,
Speaker 1: a guy who not as well respected in terms of
Speaker 1: like schematics and stuff like that. And it's like, well,
Speaker 1: Drake May, if your stud like elevate your game, show
Speaker 1: that you can win in this other system, more of
Speaker 1: the stuff not handed you on a platter, like it
Speaker 1: wasn't that Longo system.
Speaker 2: And I didn't see that.
Speaker 1: I saw a bit of regression from Drake May this
Speaker 1: year avoids negative play percentile for Drake May forty six
Speaker 1: percentile under pressure fifty first percentile outside the pocket where
Speaker 1: we agree he doesn't win that bears out in the
Speaker 1: stats forty six percentile.
Speaker 2: You know, just just some some different stuff like that.
Speaker 1: Again, these are super nippicky things, but that's that's just
Speaker 1: what I and I.
Speaker 3: Haven't gonna be as well. That's gonna affect the range
Speaker 3: of outcomes and his overall ceiling. And we have to
Speaker 3: bring up And it's not because we're trying we're trying
Speaker 3: to shave these kids. It's because we're going to talk
Speaker 3: about like the range of outcomes. Because here's the thing.
Speaker 3: Not everybody that goes to the freaking NFL is gonna
Speaker 3: be an all pro. If that's the case, then what
Speaker 3: are we even talking about here? You know? So we
Speaker 3: have ranges of outcomes with all of these players. Can
Speaker 3: they actualize their ceilings? What are the parts of their games?
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say where they they're bad or the weaknesses.
Speaker 3: Where are the areas that they can improve in their
Speaker 3: games to really actualize that ceiling?
Speaker 1: But we both I don't want to put words in
Speaker 1: your mouth, but we agree, Drake may overall top eight
Speaker 1: prospect overall in the class or sex.
Speaker 3: I think you can easily just stack them even though
Speaker 3: we're the very top, but just put them number one, two, three,
Speaker 3: four overall on your board. You know that I would
Speaker 3: not push back against anybody doing that.
Speaker 1: Thousand at last, but not least, moving to the consensus
Speaker 1: QB one. He has been the knsenses QB one for
Speaker 1: a long time. Now, USC's Caleb Williams. What did you
Speaker 1: think about debro and where do you have him ranked?
Speaker 3: I got him at QB three, and I know people
Speaker 3: are gonna sit here and hate it. I know people
Speaker 3: are gonna push back about that. And again I'm going
Speaker 3: to point right back to the point we made earlier
Speaker 3: in this show. The top four qbs in this class,
Speaker 3: I look at them as one long tier. So don't
Speaker 3: get it twisted. Don't talk about oh well, I'm just
Speaker 3: throwing to throw this out here just for clicks, or
Speaker 3: I'm trying to do this out here to be hyperbolic. No,
Speaker 3: when you look at Caleb Williams and the overall totality
Speaker 3: his game, does he have a wider range of outcomes
Speaker 3: than say McCarthy and Jaden Daniels. I think he does.
Speaker 3: Now if you were to say I'm gonna watch all
Speaker 3: of his twenty two tape, twenty twenty two tape, and
Speaker 3: I'm not going to care about twenty twenty three. You'd
Speaker 3: have a very very different conversation thor we'd be talking about,
Speaker 3: oh well, all of the hiccups and the worries that
Speaker 3: we have about some of the things that cab what
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams did in twenty twenty three, those don't exist.
Speaker 3: So would he be my clear cut, top of the
Speaker 3: shelf QB one of this class without a without any
Speaker 3: type of question. Sure, but hey, guess what twenty twenty
Speaker 3: three did happen? You could try to will it away,
Speaker 3: you can try to erase it, you can try to
Speaker 3: pretend like none of it happened, but it did, so
Speaker 3: we have to discuss it. In twenty twenty three, Caleb
Speaker 3: Williams lesser skilled players around him and stuff. You didn't
Speaker 3: see wide receivers getting in and out of their breaks
Speaker 3: as well getting open as well. So a lot of this,
Speaker 3: like Caleb Williams gunslinger mentality, this super playmaker and his
Speaker 3: ability to play off a script, a lot of that
Speaker 3: turned into I'm gonna play hero ball and so he's
Speaker 3: bailing some clean pockets. He's also the other part and
Speaker 3: this is the part where it gets worrisome, is that
Speaker 3: in that type of system, basically in twenty twenty three
Speaker 3: what you saw from Caleb Williams, are those bad habits
Speaker 3: gonna translate to the NFL? Which all three for these
Speaker 3: teams at the top of the Are we going to
Speaker 3: talk about any of those teams having illustrious offensive lines?
Speaker 3: Are we gonna talk about any of those teams or
Speaker 3: his possible landing spots. Even if we say he goes
Speaker 3: with Cliff to Washington like we talked about when we
Speaker 3: discussed betting odds, even if he goes there was the
Speaker 3: Commander's offensive line just a maller unit last year. Are
Speaker 3: we so just enamored with how much protection in time
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams would have in the pocket in Washington, in Chicago,
Speaker 3: in New England. No, So, these parts of his game
Speaker 3: and these worries from twenty twenty three have to be
Speaker 3: discussed in the context of what did twenty twenty three
Speaker 3: look like and what does that look like projecting the NFL.
Speaker 3: Are these new bad habits that stay and hang around
Speaker 3: because of the speed of the game is going to
Speaker 3: speed up going from college to the NFL. Learning a
Speaker 3: new system, having new parts and pieces around you, having
Speaker 3: a new offensive coordinator. If it's not Washington, all of
Speaker 3: those parts have to get brought up. Does Caleb Williams
Speaker 3: have special talent yes? Does he have a cannon yes?
Speaker 3: Can he make ridiculous plays off script? Yes? But some
Speaker 3: of those things can hurt him as well. Where he's
Speaker 3: bailing clean pockets, he's missing wide receivers in his progression.
Speaker 3: He's not throwing to underneath options that are wide open
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three where he could have easy completions.
Speaker 3: Is he forcing double coverage go balls down the freaking field? Yes?
Speaker 3: So some of these bad habits are they ingrained? Are
Speaker 3: they part of what we're going to see in the NFL?
Speaker 3: Can he re acclimate himself and get more of that
Speaker 3: tempered aggression back from twenty twenty two? It is very possible.
Speaker 3: And if that is the case, he will be the
Speaker 3: QB one of this class. He will bury every single
Speaker 3: person that did not rank him as the QB one
Speaker 3: of this class. But can I definitively right now say
Speaker 3: on air to you Thor that I have no questions
Speaker 3: about Caleb Williams game that I will rank him at
Speaker 3: QB one because the consensus is going to turn it
Speaker 3: a volume up to eleven and bury anybody that doesn't
Speaker 3: do that. No, I have questions about his game and
Speaker 3: that's why he is not as of right now recording
Speaker 3: this right now. That is why he is not my
Speaker 3: QB one. Is he really freaking talented and can he
Speaker 3: be that? It's possible?
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think where where we agree on this prospect is
Speaker 1: it's there's more risk in the profile I think than
Speaker 1: has been forwarded out there, because the way that he
Speaker 1: was depicted is like, oh, this is cam Mis, he's
Speaker 1: got to be there's you know, it's a no doubter
Speaker 1: at one and you know he's gonna be the superstar whatever.
Speaker 1: There's some risk there, you know, not you know, excessive whatever,
Speaker 1: but there's there is some because you have some of those.
Speaker 2: Bad habits and things that I like about him.
Speaker 1: I think I had a thing in my my he
Speaker 1: plays with an effortless error, and he he trusts what
Speaker 1: he's seeing so much right like and and when things
Speaker 1: are going well, everything's clicking and everything looks natural, right,
Speaker 1: and that that's where the ceiling comes into play. And
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't know how you defend this guy,
Speaker 1: but when it's going the other way sometimes, I mean
Speaker 1: there was a couple of games last year where he
Speaker 1: did not play particularly well. When when that stuff isn't
Speaker 1: going as well, and now it's like, you know, is
Speaker 1: you trust the eyes and you know, making a mistake
Speaker 1: with the reeds, different stuff like that forcing the ball
Speaker 1: like you mentioned twenty twenty two, he was absolutely a
Speaker 1: says he regressed a little bit in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: I mean, it just is what it is, and I
Speaker 1: think it's fair context because he lost you know, Jordan
Speaker 1: Addison for instance, receiving corps wasn't quite as good. But
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy didn't have a killer of a receiving corps.
Speaker 1: I mean JJ McCarthy had Roman Wilson, and then the
Speaker 1: other guys were.
Speaker 3: Drake May didn't either want to talk about Tas Walker
Speaker 3: and all those guys there.
Speaker 2: Your boy, don't put that on me.
Speaker 1: But yet with you know, as far as Caleb, so
Speaker 1: I am still ranking him as QB one. It is
Speaker 1: closer for me though, like this is not a no
Speaker 1: doubt or and and I still absolutely might twitch it.
Speaker 1: But on that upside, you know, when again when you
Speaker 1: see that those flash play and he had a ton
Speaker 1: of them over the last couple you know, this year
Speaker 1: as well. It was just this year the consistency, it
Speaker 1: just vacillated, and that's the stuff he's gonna have to address,
Speaker 1: crop out some of those bad habits, whatever. But the
Speaker 1: ceiling of this prospect, to me, is the highest in
Speaker 1: the class. That's I'm still going off off the ceiling
Speaker 1: on this, but I do think that there's a little
Speaker 1: bit more risk just because of the things that we're
Speaker 1: talking about. The consistency. Consistency needs to get better with
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams. And I do wonder Debro about what you're
Speaker 1: talking about too. You go to the NFL, maybe the
Speaker 1: supporting cast isn't very good because obviously you're not gonna
Speaker 1: be You're getting picked by a great franchise right to start.
Speaker 1: You have to be the impetus of this thing turning around.
Speaker 1: Then you're wondering last year, you know, just a couple
Speaker 1: guys leave and all of a sudden, the thing devolves
Speaker 1: into seven and five. Usc looked listless a lot of weeks,
Speaker 1: but now he's gonna be going to another franchise.
Speaker 2: It's even way.
Speaker 1: You know, there's worse in the NFL at least are
Speaker 1: can he be that catalyst to turn the thing around.
Speaker 1: Certainly has the ability for that, and that's what I'm
Speaker 1: really excited about. The creative bent to his game. Different
Speaker 1: stuff like that way he puts defenders into conflict all
Speaker 1: the time, you know, different stuff like that. I love
Speaker 1: all that stuff that you know, out of the pocket,
Speaker 1: he's a says, throwing on the run. He's different stuff
Speaker 1: like that. I love all that stuff about his game.
Speaker 1: But yeah, just just needs a little bit more work.
Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say. You know, Pat Mahomes
Speaker 1: found his Andy Reid, and I think Pat Mahomes would
Speaker 1: have succeeded either way. But finding Andy Reid is what
Speaker 1: took Mahomes to the next level a guy where at
Speaker 1: speaking of Cliff Kingsbury, you know, Mahomes plays for him
Speaker 1: at Texas Tech. And the one issue that you had
Speaker 1: with Mahomes at Texas Tech was he had a ludicrous arm. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you just didn't see guys with the arm
Speaker 1: of Pat Mahomes. But it was that, you know, he
Speaker 1: would do that his own high wire act where it
Speaker 1: was like I need to win every single game whatever
Speaker 1: was playing some hero ball because this situation required it.
Speaker 1: It was Pat Mahomes basically, you know, returning fire against
Speaker 1: the Baker Mayfield Lhommes Sooner's different stuff like that.
Speaker 2: He needed an NFL coach that would teach him. These
Speaker 2: are the instances.
Speaker 1: Where you can let yourself off the leash and I
Speaker 1: want to see that faull thing. I want to see
Speaker 1: you be Caalisi's dragon breathing fire from this guy. You
Speaker 1: do what you know whatever, you know whatever with that stuff,
Speaker 1: but you also need to understand when it's not there.
Speaker 1: And just to take the short profit. Think about Pat
Speaker 1: Mahomes when they started doing the two deep safeties on
Speaker 1: them all the different time and they're like the NFL
Speaker 1: was like, we're not letting you have the d BA anymore.
Speaker 2: Pat Mahomes like, okay, I'll beat you anyway.
Speaker 3: Right. It was even the thing we were that he
Speaker 3: had to acclimate to that more. Now like there were
Speaker 3: old enough to remember, there were parts in the NFL
Speaker 3: where Patrick Mallonmes people are like, has the NFL figured
Speaker 3: out Patrick Mahomes? Is he the same Patrick Mahomes. Now
Speaker 3: we've seen his game evolve as the NFL was evolved
Speaker 3: and coverages have evolved. Can Caleb do that? I think
Speaker 3: it's very, very possible. But in my ranking of him,
Speaker 3: I'm acknowledging where a lot of people are not acknowledging
Speaker 3: the fact that the range of outcomes is a little
Speaker 3: bit wider for him than most people are willing to mention.
Speaker 2: So deep, brother.
Speaker 1: Now that we've wrapped up the discussion of the CONCENTSUS
Speaker 1: top eight and tossed our thing out, let's run through
Speaker 1: our top ten. So expand the list by two and
Speaker 1: then and then give people a reminder of where we're
Speaker 1: at on these guys.
Speaker 2: So we'll start with you.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So QB ten for me is Joe Milton. I mean,
Speaker 3: he's got all the talent in the world that you'd
Speaker 3: want from a quarterback. I mean oozing oozing attributes is
Speaker 3: just a question of does he ever put it together?
Speaker 3: And I'm on the lower end of I don't know
Speaker 3: if that ever happens. QB nine, similar conversation. I got
Speaker 3: these two guys in the same tier. Jordan Travis out
Speaker 3: of Florida State. He's got all the intangibles you wanted
Speaker 3: of a starting quarterback. He can run, he could throw,
Speaker 3: the big thing for him is inconsistencies in his game
Speaker 3: and whether that's mechanics, whether that's footwork, whether that's ball placement,
Speaker 3: big big times on big time on ball placement. The
Speaker 3: inconsistencies are real. QB eight Michael Pratt. We talked about
Speaker 3: QB seven bow Nicks. QB six for me is Spencer Rattler,
Speaker 3: QB five is Michael Pennix, QB four is Drake May,
Speaker 3: three is Caleb Williams, Mike QB two is JJ McCarthy
Speaker 3: and Mike TB one of this class right now is
Speaker 3: Jaden Daniels.
Speaker 1: So me starting at the top from one, Caleb Williams,
Speaker 1: Jenden Daniels, McCarthy, at three, Drake May, four, Pennix five,
Speaker 1: Nick six, Rattlers seven, Pratt eight. My nine is Milton.
Speaker 1: I think there's a there's a big drop after eight.
Speaker 1: The eight is like you know, I mean, and the
Speaker 1: latter part of that, you know, after the top four
Speaker 1: than the next four I think are like the solid backups,
Speaker 1: and maybe you know you might get more than that,
Speaker 1: like you know, you have to see, but there's more
Speaker 1: questions about those guys. You'll get at least a back
Speaker 1: about it. You get beyond that, and now we're starting
Speaker 1: to pars guys whatever. I put Milton at the front
Speaker 1: of the line of that because I think there's only
Speaker 1: a one in one thousand shot that the light ever
Speaker 1: goes on for Joe Milton. But if it ever does,
Speaker 1: watch out. I don't think it's gonna happen. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna wash out of the NFL pretty quick. He's
Speaker 1: like a JaMarcus Russell without the hypeer or whatever has
Speaker 1: all the MP.
Speaker 3: Was Josh Freeman's I'm with you on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean he could throw the ball a mile.
Speaker 2: He's super athletic.
Speaker 1: You know, at six five two forty two he can
Speaker 1: do standing back flips. You talk about a mile per
Speaker 1: hour runner. When he gets out on the open field,
Speaker 1: he can start trucking. The accuracy is all over the plays.
Speaker 1: He has no pocket presence. Even though he's playing in
Speaker 1: one of the most advantageous offensive systems in college football,
Speaker 1: the Hennon Hooker Special with Josh Hypel at Tennessee. Even
Speaker 1: cleaving the field in half for him, he was still
Speaker 1: badly struggling to make the correct reids. My ten was
Speaker 1: Jordan Travis, who I think Jordan Travis has a way
Speaker 1: lower ceiling, but I think he hangs around as the
Speaker 1: clip board holder guy, a guy that improved quite a
Speaker 1: bit earlier in his career at Louisville. He really struggled
Speaker 1: with the accuracy, wasn't a good thrower or whatever. Worked
Speaker 1: on his game, worked on his game, worked on his
Speaker 1: game to at least become viable with in the pocket.
Speaker 1: You mentioned his athleticism. He had that devastating injury against
Speaker 1: the FCS team in mid November that led to all
Speaker 1: the playoff discussions that we won't get into with college football,
Speaker 1: but we want to see, you know what, we'll see
Speaker 1: it in Indianapolis, the medicals and how that's going and
Speaker 1: where they project him as far as the recovery timeline.
Speaker 1: But assuming that is all okay ish, you know, we
Speaker 1: don't get bad news beyond what we already know with
Speaker 1: Jordan Travis. I would have him number ten and Debro
Speaker 1: welcome or goodbye to our very first episode of the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros NFL Draft show.
Speaker 3: That was fun, my friend, oh man, good stuff, man,
Speaker 3: And we're gonna have more of these prospect talks. We're
Speaker 3: gonna go through all the running backs. We're gonna talk
Speaker 3: about pole rising players. We're gonna talk about when we
Speaker 3: get closer to the combine, about betting on all this stuff. Man,
Speaker 3: So everybody get subscribed, stay tuned in. It's gonna be
Speaker 3: freaking fantastic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely subscribe because these episodes will be drafting every
Speaker 1: single week on the podcast.
Speaker 2: Which day for the people?
Speaker 3: Are they going to be dropping every Wednesday? So he
Speaker 3: usually will record these on Monday or Tuesday, and this
Speaker 3: episode will drop Wednesday.
Speaker 2: So they be dropping on Wednesday. Make sure to subscribe
Speaker 2: to that.
Speaker 1: Like I said, every single episode, we're gonna hit props,
Speaker 1: different things that came out like that, values that we
Speaker 1: could see on the board and then run through like
Speaker 1: we did today, our top eight or top ten by
Speaker 1: position parts on some of that. And then we have
Speaker 1: a couple episodes where we get deeper sleeper running backs.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get way out there in the Wese, sleeper
Speaker 1: wide receivers, different stuff like that. Super excited for the
Speaker 1: rest of the spring. Super excited to be with you,
Speaker 1: de bro and four my colleague Derek Brown, I am Thrownysram.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us. We will see you next time
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Pros NFL Draft show.
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