Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Good morning.
Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here are these
Speaker 3: stories we're following today.
Speaker 4: John, the gain in futures and bond yields comes as
Speaker 4: we await this morning's jobs report. The median estimate of
Speaker 4: economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a gain of two
Speaker 4: hundred and fourteen thousand jobs and month of March. Let's
Speaker 4: get a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 1: There will be three numbers to watch in today's employment report. First,
Speaker 1: the number of jobs created. Gains have average two hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty seven thousand a month for the past year
Speaker 1: two hundred and forty four thousand a month for the
Speaker 1: past three months. Anything significantly below that may signal the
Speaker 1: labor market is finally weakening. FED officials have forecast unemployment
Speaker 1: would rise over four percent for months now, but so
Speaker 1: far that's not happened, another sign of labor market strength. Finally,
Speaker 1: wage inflation itself matters. FED officials would like to see
Speaker 1: wages increasing no more than three and a half percent
Speaker 1: a month. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, thanks Mike, and as we wait the John support.
Speaker 3: One FED official says interest rate cuts may not be
Speaker 3: needed this year, especially if the economy remains robust. Here's
Speaker 3: Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Neil kush Curry.
Speaker 5: Wouldn't say they're off the table, but they're also not
Speaker 5: a likely scenario given what we know right now. If
Speaker 5: we continue to see strong job growth, if we continue
Speaker 5: to see strong consumer spending and strong GDP growth, then
Speaker 5: that raises a question in my mind, well, why would
Speaker 5: we cut rage?
Speaker 3: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neil kush Curry does not vote
Speaker 3: on policy this year, and.
Speaker 4: Neither does the chief US economist at Morgan Stanley John
Speaker 4: but she expects multiple cuts this year. We cut up
Speaker 4: with Ellen Zenner at a conference in Italy this morning.
Speaker 6: We expect four cuts.
Speaker 7: We actually expect them to speed up cuts in the
Speaker 7: fourth quarter of the year because we have inflation coming
Speaker 7: down faster at that point and the FED but I
Speaker 7: don't think that the timing of when central banks globally
Speaker 7: are cutting is really going to be an issue.
Speaker 4: Morgan Stanley chief US economist Ellen Zetner says she expects
Speaker 4: the first cut in.
Speaker 3: June and heading to Asia. Janet Yellen has kicked off
Speaker 3: her latest visit to China, calling out the country's government
Speaker 3: for its quote unfair treatment of US firms. However, delivering
Speaker 3: prepared remarks at an event in the southern city of Guangzhou,
Speaker 3: Yellen had this to say on the matter of protectionism.
Speaker 8: The President and I really reject the idea that we
Speaker 8: should decouple our economy from China's. Rather, we're seeking a
Speaker 8: healthy economic relationship, but importantly on a level playing field
Speaker 8: that can benefit both sides.
Speaker 3: Yellen's trip comes after President Biden at Chinese leader Shijinping
Speaker 3: held their first call in five months on Tuesday.
Speaker 4: I meanwhile, John Argentina's president Javier Malay, has told Bloomberg
Speaker 4: he won't change existing trade and financial ties his country
Speaker 4: has with China. It is a marked change in tone
Speaker 4: for the libertarian leader, who is previously like in Beijing
Speaker 4: to an assassin. Bloomberg News editor in chief John Micklethwaite
Speaker 4: asked Malay if he still stood by those comments.
Speaker 9: And as for the Chinese government, what we've always said
Speaker 9: is that we are libertarians, and if people want to
Speaker 9: do business with China, they can carry on business as usual.
Speaker 9: What I said was that I wouldn't be aligned with communists.
Speaker 4: And President Willay added he has no intention of touching
Speaker 4: the eighteen billion dollar currency swap between Argentina and China.
Speaker 4: China is the biggest source of foreign reserves for the
Speaker 4: beleaguered Central Bank in Buenos Aires.
Speaker 3: And now to the latest from the Middle East. Israeli
Speaker 3: Prime Minister ben Ubinetanya, whose office is promising to prevent
Speaker 3: a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. That's after a half hour
Speaker 3: phone call with President Biden following the attack that killed
Speaker 3: seven aid workers this week. The White House National Security
Speaker 3: spokesman John Kirby says US support for Israel's or with
Speaker 3: Hamas will depend on Israel taking new steps to protect civilians.
Speaker 10: If we don't see changes from their side, they'll have
Speaker 10: to be changes from our side, but I won't preview
Speaker 10: what that could look like.
Speaker 3: White House spokesman John Kirby says the call between Biden
Speaker 3: and Nathan Yahoo was direct and business like. Nett Yahoo's
Speaker 3: office is Israel will allow temporary aid deliveries through two checkpoints,
Speaker 3: and more Jordanian aid could flow through a third, crossing.
Speaker 4: Well Middle East tensions. John lifted oil above ninety one
Speaker 4: dollars a barrel earlier this morning. In fact, crud's risen
Speaker 4: for four straight days and is trading at its highest
Speaker 4: level since October. Checking Brent right now, it's a little
Speaker 4: change to the upside at ninety dollars seventy one cents
Speaker 4: per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is down a tenth of
Speaker 4: one percent at eighty six dollars forty seven cents.
Speaker 3: And in Europe, the oil giant Shell predicting weaker first
Speaker 3: quarter results. Let's go to London now and get the
Speaker 3: latest with Tiwa out of Bayou.
Speaker 11: Good morning, Tiwa, Good morning. Join Nathan so Yes.
Speaker 12: The London based Anti Giants show did provide an update
Speaker 12: to the market this morning, and the big story was
Speaker 12: what's happened to their earnings from gas trading. So they
Speaker 12: did admit that those earnings for the first quarter have dropped,
Speaker 12: but shall are also keen to point out that they
Speaker 12: are still high by historical standards. So the Shell division
Speaker 12: that does buy and sell natural gas has proved to
Speaker 12: be quite a major money maker since the Russian invasion
Speaker 12: of Ukraine increased volatility, and that profitability dropped in the
Speaker 12: first three months of the year, but that's after what
Speaker 12: Shell is describing as an exceptional fourth quarter of twenty
Speaker 12: twenty three. SHALL will publish its full first quarter earnings
Speaker 12: on May the second in London, to what ated BYO
Speaker 12: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, thanks too and checking sharers of SHALL Little
Speaker 3: Change this morning and time out for a look at
Speaker 3: some of the other stories making news in New York
Speaker 3: and around the world. We're joined by Bloombergs and Michael Barr.
Speaker 13: Thank you very much. John Donald Trump suffered two legal
Speaker 13: setbacks yesterday. Bloomberg's Amy Morris begins with a ling from
Speaker 13: a Georgia judge on the former president's election interference case.
Speaker 14: Folding County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee denied Donald Trump's
Speaker 14: request to dismiss his case on the grounds that it
Speaker 14: violated his free speech rights. Judge McAfee says alleged comments
Speaker 14: by former President Trump are not protected by the First Amendment,
Speaker 14: saying that they were made quote in furtherance of criminal activity.
Speaker 14: And just a couple of hours later, in Florida, Federal
Speaker 14: Court Judge Isiland Cannon rejected Donald Trump's bid to drop
Speaker 14: charges related to his alleged mishandling of classified documents after
Speaker 14: he left the White House. Both court cases will proceed
Speaker 14: on schedule in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 13: We've learned Wednesdays nor'easter turned deadly in New York. More
Speaker 13: than seven one hundred thousand homes and businesses lost power
Speaker 13: across nearly a dozen states. In the Bronx, crews were
Speaker 13: clearing hundreds of trees and limbs that came down around
Speaker 13: New York City. North of the city, in armank the
Speaker 13: wife of a Yankees executive was killed when her was
Speaker 13: crushed by a falling tree. The Yankees released a statement
Speaker 13: sending their condolences to the family of fifty year old
Speaker 13: Catherine Tucciani. Rescued teams are searching for a family of
Speaker 13: five feared trapped in a rockslide following Taiwan's biggest earthquake
Speaker 13: in twenty five years. The quake Wednesday left at least
Speaker 13: now twelve dead. In the city of Hulane, cruise were
Speaker 13: working to demolish a five story building that was left
Speaker 13: leaning at a severe angle. The quake damaged scores of
Speaker 13: buildings around the island and left more than a thousand
Speaker 13: people injured. President Biden heads to Baltimore today to view
Speaker 13: the site of the March twenty six bridge collapse that
Speaker 13: killed six construction workers and shut down the Port of Baltimore.
Speaker 13: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Vierre says Biden will
Speaker 13: be briefed about efforts to remove the wreckage, reopen the channel,
Speaker 13: and Baltimore's recovery.
Speaker 9: As the President said within hours of the collapse, this
Speaker 9: administration will be with.
Speaker 11: The people of Baltimore every step of the way.
Speaker 13: White House spoke person Green Jean Pierre says the President
Speaker 13: also will meet with the families of the construction workers
Speaker 13: who were fixing potholes on the Francis Scott Key Bridge
Speaker 13: when the cargo vessel lost power and slammed into it.
Speaker 13: Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you
Speaker 13: want it with Bloomberg News Now. Hi, Michael Barrn, This
Speaker 13: is Bloomberg John, Michael, thank you.
Speaker 3: It's coming up on five ten of Wall Street Time
Speaker 3: down for the Bloomberg Sports update. For that, we bring
Speaker 3: it in John Steshower.
Speaker 15: Thanks John.
Speaker 16: To day began for the Knicks with an update on
Speaker 16: the Julius Randall shoulder injury. Not good news, but not
Speaker 16: unexpected the way things had been trending. Randall's season is
Speaker 16: over neath surgery. The injury took place back on January
Speaker 16: twenty seventh. Of the hope was that he would return,
Speaker 16: but his doctors have recently warned him a further damage
Speaker 16: if he did that. Nick then hosted the Kings, trailed
Speaker 16: by fifteen after the first quarter. Dominated after that, they
Speaker 16: beat Sacramento one twenty to one oh nine to end
Speaker 16: the three game, losing three Jalens runs and scored thirty
Speaker 16: five on the ice. Islanders continue their push to make
Speaker 16: the playoffs or two win of Columbus Bruins won four
Speaker 16: to one at Carolina Capitol's lost four to one to
Speaker 16: Pittsburgh College Basketball. Seaton Hall won the NIT in dramatic fashion,
Speaker 16: finished the game on a nine to nothing run to
Speaker 16: top Indiana State seventy nine seventy seven, first time the
Speaker 16: Pirates have won the NIT since nineteen fifty three. Now
Speaker 16: it's the NCAA Final Four, with the women playing to
Speaker 16: that in Cleveland. Unbeaten South Carolina takes it on NC State,
Speaker 16: followed by Caitlin Clark and Iowa against perennial power Yukon
Speaker 16: one way or the other. Clark's brilliant career is about
Speaker 16: to end. She was asked what she should be remembered for.
Speaker 10: Remember, you know how we made them feel, how we
Speaker 10: broad joyed their lives, how we gave their family something
Speaker 10: to scream about on the TV on the weekends. You know,
Speaker 10: I think, I hope those are the biggest things that
Speaker 10: people remember. I hope, you know, all the young boys
Speaker 10: and girls remember the joy that we played with and
Speaker 10: how we took ten seconds of our time to sign
Speaker 10: their autograph.
Speaker 16: Met Men's final four beginning tomorrow night in Phoenix in
Speaker 16: the Bronx Today the Yankee home opener. They came off
Speaker 16: a six and one season opening road tip. They'll start
Speaker 16: Marcus Strouman against the Blue Jays Cityfield. Yes. Today, the
Speaker 16: Mets finally at their first win. It came in the
Speaker 16: nightcap to the doubleheader with Detroit. They lost the opener
Speaker 16: six to three, but then one two to one with
Speaker 16: two runs in the bottom of the night. This will
Speaker 16: be the A's last season in Oakland, then moving to
Speaker 16: Las Vegas in twenty twenty eight, and it was announced
Speaker 16: that the next three seasons they'll play in Sacramento. Josh
Speaker 16: Dash that wear Bloomberg Sports John Nathan All right.
Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, John, And ahead of the jobs report
Speaker 3: this morning is and B Futures. They are up three
Speaker 3: tenths of a percent.
Speaker 15: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
Speaker 15: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 15: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning.
Speaker 4: I'm Nathan Hagar, and as we await that March jobs report,
Speaker 4: we want to bring you an important conversation with Ellen Zenner,
Speaker 4: the chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. She thinks the
Speaker 4: Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rights starting
Speaker 4: in June. Speaking with Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden, ellen Zenner says
Speaker 4: she believes the markets expectation of about three he cuts
Speaker 4: this year is in line with the Fed's views.
Speaker 7: So I think it's going to be more about inflation.
Speaker 7: If the Fed were to cut as early as May,
Speaker 7: I think the bar is very high for them to
Speaker 7: go that soon, though, But I do still expect them
Speaker 7: to be ready by June.
Speaker 6: For the employment report.
Speaker 7: You know, we're expecting another big number around two hundred
Speaker 7: and forty five thousand, even if it comes in at
Speaker 7: one hundred one hundred and fifty thousand. They'll say it's
Speaker 7: just one print. We're going to look at the unemployment rate.
Speaker 7: I think even if we get a very strong jobs number,
Speaker 7: we're going to keep the unemployment rate higher at three
Speaker 7: point nine percent. And that's because so many people are
Speaker 7: coming into the labor market, and then you're still going
Speaker 7: to get wage pressures that are coming off. So when
Speaker 7: you talk about a Goldilock scenario, right, that's going to
Speaker 7: be a report that says the economy is still strong,
Speaker 7: but it's not something that gives a definitive signal to
Speaker 7: the Fed that they need to cut very soon.
Speaker 11: Here, well, Chap Powell agrees with you.
Speaker 17: It's a bigger economy, not a tie to one thanks
Speaker 17: to immigration. But you've put the neutral jobs rate of
Speaker 17: growth at two hundred and sixty five thousand moons.
Speaker 11: Why is Pole's estimate of one hundred thousand wrong?
Speaker 7: So look, I had an estimate of one hundred thousand
Speaker 7: just six months ago. Essentially, we've gotten new data, and
Speaker 7: this is something that markets have to deal with, economists
Speaker 7: have to deal with. We have gotten significantly upward revisions
Speaker 7: to population growth in the US, and faster population growth
Speaker 7: means faster economy. It means faster growth in the labor market,
Speaker 7: and it also means that you're going to have a
Speaker 7: higher what we call break even level for employment, the
Speaker 7: amount of jobs you need to create in order to
Speaker 7: keep the unemployment rates steady.
Speaker 6: And so this is a supply side story.
Speaker 7: That supply side story is something that Chairpal has been
Speaker 7: focused on since later last year. Twenty twenty three was
Speaker 7: all about improving supply chains, improving labor supply.
Speaker 6: Twenty twenty four extends.
Speaker 7: That labor supply improvement where the growth in the population
Speaker 7: is just that strong.
Speaker 6: And so this is a real supply side story that is.
Speaker 7: Supporting growth in the economy without creating inflationary pressures.
Speaker 17: I want to come back to where rates will go
Speaker 17: in a moment, but just staying on immigration, Ellen, it's
Speaker 17: going to be a key issue, of course in the
Speaker 17: US election.
Speaker 11: If you get Trump two point.
Speaker 17: Zero, what sort of economic impact you're expecting.
Speaker 7: So I do think that this puts the administration in
Speaker 7: a sticky spot because according to our surveys households a list,
Speaker 7: immigration is the second most concern, just behind inflation. Yet
Speaker 7: from an economist, just objective lens on the economy. Faster
Speaker 7: population growth drives faster growth in the economy, and so
Speaker 7: it is a positive for the US economy. It's been
Speaker 7: a positive for US job gains, it's been a positive
Speaker 7: for US consumption. But immigration itself is a hot button
Speaker 7: political issue, and so I think focusing on just the
Speaker 7: economic benefits from it will be something that needs to
Speaker 7: be separated on the campaign trail.
Speaker 11: But then what's the flip side of that?
Speaker 17: If you have less immigration, could inflation strike again?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 7: I think that there is a question mark out there
Speaker 7: as to how much do immigrants contribute to inflation in
Speaker 7: the economy.
Speaker 10: Now.
Speaker 7: The US is very different than other economies where we
Speaker 7: have low skilled labor coming in. They're helping fill jobs
Speaker 7: that are the positions that are open where we need labor,
Speaker 7: and they come in at low wage paying service sector
Speaker 7: areas of the economy that help bring wage pressures down,
Speaker 7: so that tends to not be inflationary in the US.
Speaker 7: That is very unlike countries like our neighbor Canada, where
Speaker 7: they have very high skilled immigration coming in. Thirty percent
Speaker 7: of their labor market is unionized. Those are high skilled labor,
Speaker 7: and there's a lot of household formation and a lot
Speaker 7: of inflationary pressures that come from that, So the US
Speaker 7: is quite different there. Now, that said, it's more of
Speaker 7: an economic growth rather than inflation problem. If you we
Speaker 7: were to have a shift in policy you have a
Speaker 7: big drop off in immigration and suddenly you have a
Speaker 7: very big slowdown in population growth, then that is more
Speaker 7: of a growth narrative, dampening growth and dampening inflation.
Speaker 6: So immigration is.
Speaker 7: Neither here nor there's neither inflationary nor deflationary for the
Speaker 7: immigration that we have today. But if we were to
Speaker 7: suddenly turn that off, then you would have an impact
Speaker 7: to growth and a gravitational pull on inflation as well.
Speaker 11: If we can come.
Speaker 17: Back to the Mona tree, you're in the beautiful Lake
Speaker 17: Como area in Italy. If the ECB cots before the fad,
Speaker 17: how much is how much divergence would be a problem.
Speaker 6: I don't think that's a problem at all.
Speaker 7: The FED is on a track to cut rates, and
Speaker 7: not all on the FMC agree that rates will be
Speaker 7: appropriate this year, but all but one believe that we
Speaker 7: will cut rates this year in the US, and so
Speaker 7: that market expectation of about three cuts this year I
Speaker 7: think is in line with the Fed's view, and I
Speaker 7: do think that that's in line with what the FED
Speaker 7: thinks it will deliver.
Speaker 6: We expect four cuts.
Speaker 7: We actually expect them to speed up cuts in the
Speaker 7: fourth quarter of the year because we have inflation coming
Speaker 7: down faster at that point than the FED. But I
Speaker 7: don't think that the timing of when central banks globally
Speaker 7: are cutting is really going to be an issue for
Speaker 7: the FED. Markets already have cuts priced in as an expectation.
Speaker 17: Well, the last thing any central bank current in the
Speaker 17: world wants to do is to reverse course.
Speaker 11: Who do you think is most at risk of a
Speaker 11: U turn?
Speaker 6: Well, I think that.
Speaker 7: You know the FED has communicated that it will cut,
Speaker 7: it's likely to cut. Real rates are already quite restrictive,
Speaker 7: and you don't want them to get further restrictive if
Speaker 7: inflation continues to fall. So the risk there, of course
Speaker 7: is inflation doesn't fall. If this immigration story provides so
Speaker 7: much strength in the economy, it starts to become inflationary. Right,
Speaker 7: then it's not necessarily it's reversing courseness sins from we
Speaker 7: were set to cut and then we're not going to cut.
Speaker 7: I think the bar is just too high to get
Speaker 7: to a point where they're going to be willing to
Speaker 7: start hiking again. But I think the strength of the
Speaker 7: US economy really stands apart on the global stage at
Speaker 7: this point, so there is there is that risk the
Speaker 7: Cashcari pointed out that they don't cut at all, but
Speaker 7: I don't see anything in the forward looking data that
Speaker 7: suggests they should not stay on this cutting track.
Speaker 4: And that is Morgan Stanley, Chief US economist Ellen Zenner,
Speaker 4: speaking with Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden, head of the release of
Speaker 4: the March non farm payrolls report, due out this morning
Speaker 4: at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. Now, we want
Speaker 4: to bring you more of Bloomberg's exclusive interview with the
Speaker 4: President of Argentina, Javier Malay. He has been speaking with
Speaker 4: our editor in chief John Micklthwaite on a wide range
Speaker 4: of issues, in particular his country's relationship with China. President
Speaker 4: Malay had promised to curb ties with Beijing if elected,
Speaker 4: but Argentina does have deep financial links to Beijing, which
Speaker 4: include being the biggest source of foreign reserves for Argentina's
Speaker 4: beleaguered Central Bank. John Micklethwaite asked the Argentinian president if
Speaker 4: he stood by comments last year in which he called
Speaker 4: the Chinese government fascist.
Speaker 18: Last year, you called the Chinese government an assassin. Now
Speaker 18: you're in government, do you still see China that way?
Speaker 9: As for the Chinese government, what we've always said is
Speaker 9: that we are libertarians, and if people want to do
Speaker 9: business with China, they can carry on business as usual.
Speaker 9: What I said was that I wouldn't be aligned with communists,
Speaker 9: and that's precisely one of the things. Who did I
Speaker 9: say I was going to align with the United States
Speaker 9: and Israel? Do you have any doubt that that's my
Speaker 9: alignment the United States and Israel.
Speaker 18: No, but you have a very good example, very good
Speaker 18: example at the moment. And I'll come back to Israel
Speaker 18: in the United States later. But now, as you know,
Speaker 18: in Argentina, the focus is on a Chinese space station
Speaker 18: in Patagonia that your predecessor allowed to get built. The
Speaker 18: US says that the space station has military purposes. Will
Speaker 18: you close it down?
Speaker 9: Well, the point is this, the negotiations are beginning to
Speaker 9: ordit and inspect that because the Chinese say that is
Speaker 9: not the case. So we will move towards a situation
Speaker 9: we will be looking at that. So that is not
Speaker 9: a problem.
Speaker 18: Either is a factor in this the fact that you
Speaker 18: have that eighteen billion dollar currency swap line with China,
Speaker 18: which you do need. You need it for the reserves
Speaker 18: at the central bank. It's a big portion. Does that
Speaker 18: influence your thinking on China?
Speaker 9: That situation has to do with an agreement that was
Speaker 9: entered into and which has to do with the trade
Speaker 9: exchanges between countries. I won't modify trade exchanges because I
Speaker 9: think there are trade exchanges between privates, just as we
Speaker 9: have a part in our central bank. They have, of
Speaker 9: course their central bank counter. But I don't see a problem,
Speaker 9: and honestly, the trade relations haven't changed, not a problem.
Speaker 18: The problem would be if I was the Chinese government
Speaker 18: tonight and you called me an assassin, I might be
Speaker 18: less keen to renew the currency line.
Speaker 1: The almost in gamely figure to.
Speaker 9: Have trade relations change. They haven't, not one bit. So
Speaker 9: that is actually counter factual. There's no truth than of Argentina.
Speaker 4: Javier Malay speaking through an interpreter with Bloomberg News editor
Speaker 4: in chief John mikeoath Waye. You can get much more
Speaker 4: of their conversation. It's on today's Bloomberg Pigged Big Take.
Speaker 4: You can find that on the Bloomberg terminal, on the
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Business App, and always on Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the
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