Speaker 1: Welcome back to Beniscrow's NFL Draft Show. My name is
Speaker 1: Derek Brown and with me as always, this is Minnesota
Speaker 1: mad Man thorn Ice Trowman. On today's show, we're gonna
Speaker 1: run through our draft betting card. Yes, we're gonna discuss
Speaker 1: all the prop bets you need to be making for
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. All of these odds we're going to
Speaker 1: be pulling from bettingpros dot com slash Draft Odds. You
Speaker 1: can go there and you can peruse all of these
Speaker 1: lines as we roll through them before I bring Thor
Speaker 1: in here too. With saying all this, you need to
Speaker 1: be tailing our picks on the Betting Pros app as
Speaker 1: well as getting into the twenty twenty four NFL Draft
Speaker 1: Prop Picks Challenge at Betting Pros. This contest will take
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Speaker 1: five to get in this, all right? Thor look I
Speaker 1: just talked about a lot of things and stuff. Man,
Speaker 1: it's all lit though, baby over on BP looking at
Speaker 1: all these odds, we're gonna roll through it today. Man,
Speaker 1: are you ready for all this? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Sure, am? Yeah.
Speaker 3: We are what t minus ten days away from the
Speaker 3: NFL Draft, so it's it's starting to heat up. And yeah,
Speaker 3: like you mentioned on the Betting Pros app, we have
Speaker 3: all the betting the NFL Draft props, so I mean
Speaker 3: those markets are moving, Debro, You and I have hit
Speaker 3: several of these, you know, going back a little bit,
Speaker 3: so we have tickets in pocket. We're gonna talk about
Speaker 3: those and we're gonna specifically be given out our advice
Speaker 3: for the odds as they stand right now.
Speaker 2: So let's get into it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, Look, we talked about this. We teased a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff at least about the quarterbacks on the
Speaker 1: first ever episode of this show, and if you were there,
Speaker 1: you already knew and hopefully you place the bets for
Speaker 1: the second overall pick. At that time, we were telling
Speaker 1: you of plus money to bet Jane Daniels. I hope
Speaker 1: some people got in there, man, But let's kick this off,
Speaker 1: dude again. Heading over to Benningpros dot Com. The second
Speaker 1: overall pick odds are up now. Jane Daniels, the guy
Speaker 1: we were talking about when it opened and he was
Speaker 1: plus money, has now moved to minus two hundred, So
Speaker 1: there's obviously no juice where to squeeze there, thor, but
Speaker 1: Drake May sits at plus two ten. JJ McCarthy, our
Speaker 1: boy sits at plus thirteen hundred. What else, if anything
Speaker 1: excites you for the second overall pick? And are you
Speaker 1: getting any more action on this?
Speaker 3: So for me, most of my action has been done
Speaker 3: on this. You know you mentioned we talked about this.
Speaker 3: You know, I'm looking at thread I put out on
Speaker 3: Twitter right after we did that other episode February twenty first,
Speaker 3: where the thread was Drake May should not be favored
Speaker 3: to go number number two overall and I went into it.
Speaker 3: At that time he was minus one fifty favorite. Drake
Speaker 3: May was to go number two overall. Right now he
Speaker 3: uh is? It looks like plus two ten is the best,
Speaker 3: you know, the best odds.
Speaker 2: That you can get on him, you and Jay.
Speaker 3: The argument I made in there was Jaden Daniels should
Speaker 3: be the favorite and JJ McCarthy it was the long
Speaker 3: shot guy. The odds on both have obviously flipped at
Speaker 3: this point, Jayden Daniels at minus at two to one,
Speaker 3: I don't think you can bet that anymore. You know,
Speaker 3: when obviously when when you were getting plus money on
Speaker 3: that was a good deal, but but no longer. The
Speaker 3: only one that I could see betting at this point
Speaker 3: is if you have if you didn't wet your beak
Speaker 3: on McCarthy at the More Juice Ods, there was the report, uh,
Speaker 3: you know, going back to the NFL owner meetings where
Speaker 3: Peli Sero went around and pulled different NFL executives and
Speaker 3: he said the majority of the answers he got for
Speaker 3: who was watching and who did they think Washington was
Speaker 3: going to take a number two, that the majority of
Speaker 3: the answers that he got was JJ McCarthy. Doesn't mean
Speaker 3: that that's what's going to happen, but you know, in
Speaker 3: that thread and on our previous podcast, I mentioned that
Speaker 3: I thought JJ McCarthy was a tailor made fit for
Speaker 3: Cliff Kingsbury's offense if they weren't going to get Caleb Williams,
Speaker 3: who Cliff Kingsbury worked with last year at USC that
Speaker 3: I thought JJ McCarthy was the best fit for that offense. Now,
Speaker 3: Jayden Daniels is coming off this historic season in college football,
Speaker 3: so you wouldn't begrudge them whatsoever for taking them. It
Speaker 3: makes total sense to me that Jayden Daniels is the
Speaker 3: favorite there. But at thirteen to one, that would for McCarthy,
Speaker 3: that would be the one where there's any value whatsoever
Speaker 3: to wet your beacon.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, man. We were telling people out in
Speaker 1: February to be betting Jane Daniels. He's moved to the favorite.
Speaker 1: That doesn't surprise anybody on this show. Moving over to
Speaker 1: the third overall pick, it looks like Drake May is
Speaker 1: out there with even odds right now you can get
Speaker 1: and again we're using all of the draft odds we're
Speaker 1: gonna be talking all about in this entire show or
Speaker 1: immediately on betting pros dot com slash draft odds, So
Speaker 1: right now, I mean, you gotta be shopping all these lines. Story.
Speaker 1: You can still get even money for Drake May at
Speaker 1: the third overall pick at bet Rivers, but a lot
Speaker 1: of other places he's gone to.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: I mean, the juice is definitely there, Like he's minus
Speaker 1: one twenty five, minus one thirty in a lot of spots.
Speaker 1: So I'm not touching Drake May at third overall. But
Speaker 1: you can you can still interest me at like even money.
Speaker 1: I'm talking like a unit or something, nothing crazy. I
Speaker 1: think the more interesting guy if we're gonna be putting
Speaker 1: the money there again, looking at who could go third
Speaker 1: overall to the New England Patriots. There's a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff coming in about like maybe the New England Patriots
Speaker 1: or sniffing around JJ McCarthy. He's at plus four hundred
Speaker 1: and Jane Daniels is at plus three hundred. Uh, there's
Speaker 1: obviously the receivers are a little bit further down the
Speaker 1: board there. Marvin Harrison is at plus two thousand, e
Speaker 1: Elite Neighbors is at plus eight thousand. I'm not in
Speaker 1: on betting the receivers here, but you could you could
Speaker 1: interest me on a little bit of action for Jade
Speaker 1: Daniels and JJ McCarthy here, although I mean, look, these
Speaker 1: have moved at least a decent amount, so I mean, uh, which, well,
Speaker 1: actually Jane Daniels has moved in the other direction. He's
Speaker 1: gone if they open at plus one eighty to now
Speaker 1: plus three hundred. So if you wanted the hedge, if
Speaker 1: you got in late, you wanted the hedge on Jayde Daniels.
Speaker 1: I get that, but any action you're taking here thor well.
Speaker 3: Yet Jayden's gone up, The odds have gone up because
Speaker 3: of course his odds to go number two have gone
Speaker 3: the other way for me, you know, like the way
Speaker 3: that I attacked this board starting in February when these
Speaker 3: things started to trickle out, was it was pretty simple.
Speaker 3: Fade Drake Man is a top three pick, and so
Speaker 3: my action is on the second and third pick. It
Speaker 3: is heavily on both Jaydeen Daniels and JJ McCarthy in
Speaker 3: any iteration, you know, and the reports out at New
Speaker 3: England that you hear they do go all over the place,
Speaker 3: but we've heard quite a bit that they like Jaydeen Daniels.
Speaker 3: So I think it'd be a pretty quick pick if
Speaker 3: Washington does go with someone else. So you know, that
Speaker 3: could justify the three to one that you know, you're
Speaker 3: basically it's three to one if Daniels doesn't go second,
Speaker 3: because then he's going to go third and then McCarthy.
Speaker 3: I mean, I would put it this way, is are
Speaker 3: the odds four times better that New England takes Drake
Speaker 3: May that JJ McCarthy. I don't think so you know,
Speaker 3: based on what we've heard and then based on our
Speaker 3: own analysis of these prospects, I don't know. I don't
Speaker 3: know about that. So like to me that those odds
Speaker 3: should be closer. I have action on Like I said,
Speaker 3: McCarthy and Daniels to go third, as I do both
Speaker 3: them to go second.
Speaker 2: So that's that's what i'd advocate here too.
Speaker 1: So I will say the plus four hundred is a
Speaker 1: bet Rivers. All the other books are anywhere between like
Speaker 1: plus two hundred and plus two fifty. So I would
Speaker 1: get the action at bet Rivers, but the rest of it,
Speaker 1: like I mean you're talking about at DraftKings, very good point. Yes,
Speaker 1: plus plus two hundred I wouldn't be touching that. But
Speaker 1: if you can still get the action on bet Rivers
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred, I think it's a Bible bet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the one where you have to and de Bro,
Speaker 3: that's a great point to people out there. You have
Speaker 3: to shop the lions half, especially on these draft props
Speaker 3: where the juice vacillates so much depending on the book
Speaker 3: that you're looking at. I mean you made the point
Speaker 3: right there about you know, for instance that and you
Speaker 3: guys can see all this, I don't mean to keep
Speaker 3: going back and pushing her out, but it's really good
Speaker 3: for the line shopping in particular, it's wonderful the difference
Speaker 3: between the if you bet it at bet rivers and
Speaker 3: for instance, ESPN bet it's plus two hundred, so the
Speaker 3: same hundred dollars bet, you're losing half your money if
Speaker 3: you would bet that at ESPN bet as opposed to
Speaker 3: to bet rivers. And I'm not you know, I mean,
Speaker 3: it just depends on which prop you're doing. But in
Speaker 3: this this example, you would want to bet bete rivers.
Speaker 3: If you're gonna go McCarthy at three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, man. And moving over to the fourth
Speaker 1: overall pick, I think the obvious and this is not
Speaker 1: gonna surprise anybody. Marvin Harrison Junior is sitting with the
Speaker 1: heavily heavily juiced odds at minus one seventy five, as
Speaker 1: high as minus two hundred at some places. Moving down
Speaker 1: the board, you could still get plus four hundred odds
Speaker 1: on JJ McCarthy being the fourth overall pick, which, in
Speaker 1: looking at the outs for Arizona, this is one of
Speaker 1: the possible trade up candidates for Minnesota or any other
Speaker 1: team coming up for a quarterback. So for me it
Speaker 1: comes down to really like, I don't think Jane Daniels
Speaker 1: is gonna be on the board at the fourth overall pick.
Speaker 1: So the fact that he's plus fifteen hundred, I don't
Speaker 1: care about. The ones that stand out to me. If
Speaker 1: you wanted to get action on this is either JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy at plus four hundred, which you really got to
Speaker 1: again talking about line shopping, he's plus three hundred plus
Speaker 1: four hundred on a few but different books. Other ones
Speaker 1: he's only plus one fifty, So I would not take
Speaker 1: action there on JJ McCarthy. Drake May is plus nine
Speaker 1: hundred in some books. Over on Caesars, he's plus nine
Speaker 1: hundred to go fourth overall. If I can get the
Speaker 1: plus four hundred on JJ, I would sprinkle some action
Speaker 1: there or with Drake May. But honestly, looking at this
Speaker 1: and the likely outcomes here, it's probably JJ or I'm
Speaker 1: probably just staying away from this. But what do you
Speaker 1: think thor?
Speaker 3: This is one that that is a stay away from
Speaker 3: me because I think that Marvin Harrison Junior's price is
Speaker 3: fair where it is right now. You know, the almost
Speaker 3: two to one or two to one at most of
Speaker 3: these books, and then you know, of course it's it's
Speaker 3: Marvin Harrison Junior against the trade down possibility.
Speaker 2: But the issue there, I.
Speaker 3: Think is, I think that this pick has cost prohibitive
Speaker 3: in terms of draft equity to the teams that are
Speaker 3: actually in play here. You know that the Broncos can't
Speaker 3: pony that up. I don't think Las Vegas wouldn't be
Speaker 3: in the I don't think Las Vegas would have the
Speaker 3: prerogative unless the scenario that Jayden Daniels was here. Obviously
Speaker 3: Antonio Pierce brought him to Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: I think that's the.
Speaker 3: Only, you know, scenario where they would make a truly
Speaker 3: yolo offer. And then of course Minnesota the team where
Speaker 3: you know, all spring everyone's been mocking them as the
Speaker 3: trade up team. I don't think that they're going to
Speaker 3: give the three first round picks that Manti Austin for.
Speaker 3: It is going to be demanding for this and maybe
Speaker 3: even more so so for me. I I think that
Speaker 3: Arizona ends up staying here, and I think I think
Speaker 3: it's going to be Harrison. But with where that price is,
Speaker 3: I I can't bet that.
Speaker 1: The the only other thing that that I'll say here
Speaker 1: too can I interest you and and just just talking
Speaker 1: about because we know how crazy the NFL draft kits.
Speaker 1: And we have heard some rumors that some teams. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that Arizona definitely has this, but we have
Speaker 1: heard rumblings that some teams have Elik Neighbors as their
Speaker 1: wide receiver one on their boards. So really, honestly, the
Speaker 1: more that I stare at this store, if I were
Speaker 1: to bet this at all, I think the way that
Speaker 1: I would probably go is the plus seventeen hundred on
Speaker 1: Elite Neighbors. I mean, what do you think about that.
Speaker 2: You could?
Speaker 3: I would still be pretty surprised if Elake Neighbors ended
Speaker 3: up going over Marvin Harrison. I will too, you know,
Speaker 3: at seventeen to one, you know, if you want to
Speaker 3: do a pizza money bet on it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is just fun. I'm like taking
Speaker 1: the long shot like that, Like this would not be
Speaker 1: in my primary betting card. Like if you again, if
Speaker 1: you're doing the contest on betting pros, if you're just swinging,
Speaker 1: like swinging from the heels, then fine, But again this
Speaker 1: is probably just mostly a stay away just talking about
Speaker 1: hedging some here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think we got some some better long
Speaker 3: shot bets coming up.
Speaker 1: Agreed, Agreed, So moving over to the fifth overall pick.
Speaker 1: So again looking at what team is going to be
Speaker 1: in the spot for this fifth pick, is this the
Speaker 1: spot that gets the trade up? Are the Chargers the
Speaker 1: team that move back or do they stay and pick?
Speaker 1: And looking at these odds, I mean, right now, Elite
Speaker 1: Neighbors is the is the favored right now plus two
Speaker 1: seventy five. Marvin Harrison is a plus three hundred. So
Speaker 1: really it's funny because you see all the conviction with
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison going fourth overall, But then it's like, well,
Speaker 1: then shouldn't Elite Neighbors be the guy? Like if the
Speaker 1: Charger's sticking pick here, then shouldn't he be a little
Speaker 1: bit more favor than what he is? A plus two
Speaker 1: seventy five. But it looks like people are kind of
Speaker 1: hedging there. JJ McCarthy's a plus four seventy That bet
Speaker 1: makes some sense. Now again he's as low as only
Speaker 1: plus two to fifty on some books. But for me,
Speaker 1: if you're gonna get action on this and looking in
Speaker 1: your bet on two outcomes for me for the Chargers
Speaker 1: either well possibly three sticking and picking or trading if
Speaker 1: they stick and pick, I think it's probably neighbors or altiers,
Speaker 1: So looking at those two options. But the neighbors stuff,
Speaker 1: I mean, he's plus two hundred and a lot of books,
Speaker 1: so I'm probably out on that. I might wet my
Speaker 1: bee go on a little bit of Joe Alt to
Speaker 1: plus four seventy five, although there are better odds we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about here in a little bit. If
Speaker 1: you're gonna make Joe Alt Betts that we could possibly
Speaker 1: be making here. Uh, but for me, for it's probably
Speaker 1: looking at the plus four seventy for JJ McCarthy or
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of alt action here. What do
Speaker 1: you think?
Speaker 3: This is the slot where there's there's value and a
Speaker 3: part of that comes because there's stuff up in the
Speaker 3: air with it. You know, of course, right now you
Speaker 3: look down the best odds call him, you know, neighbors
Speaker 3: being plus two to seventy five is the quote unquote
Speaker 3: favorite tells you all you need to know about that.
Speaker 2: Here would be my.
Speaker 3: Thing with that, the guy who just took over that franchise,
Speaker 3: You really think he's gonna stick and pick and use
Speaker 3: that first pick on a wide receiver? What about his history?
Speaker 3: Suggests that he would do that. He's a guy who
Speaker 3: fetishizes his offensive line play and that's the way he
Speaker 3: builds it up.
Speaker 2: And all he could talk.
Speaker 3: About at the owner meeting was I can't wait to
Speaker 3: get started building up my offensive line, literally all he
Speaker 3: could talk about there. Does that mean that they will
Speaker 3: take an offensive lineman in this slot? No, I think
Speaker 3: that they could also trade back. So the thing that
Speaker 3: I would be fading is the couple favorites here.
Speaker 2: Look, I love neighbors as much as anyone else.
Speaker 3: I love with dunes as well, and I think that
Speaker 3: both of them would be values here. And of course,
Speaker 3: the charters do need wide receivers. But in addition to
Speaker 3: the context I just gave about Harbaugh's prerogative, keep in
Speaker 3: mind as well, Day two is absolutely stacked with wide receivers,
Speaker 3: and that team in that organization is going to know that,
Speaker 3: dang well, an organization that is going to be led
Speaker 3: by the foot of building up the trenches first. You
Speaker 3: can get immediate, plug and play starting receivers on day
Speaker 3: two of this draft. So for me, where I would
Speaker 3: be looking with this one, it's the offensive lineman under
Speaker 3: the idea that they stick and.
Speaker 2: Pick I e Joe Alt. I have Joe Alt in
Speaker 2: my portfolio.
Speaker 3: I think the ones I got it was plus five hundred,
Speaker 3: and it's you can still get what is a DK
Speaker 3: You can still get four to seventy five that looks
Speaker 3: like and then some other books it's either plus four
Speaker 3: and plus four fifty.
Speaker 2: It would either be that or else.
Speaker 3: The trade down possibility you mentioned McCarthy is four to seventy.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you the other one that we were talking
Speaker 3: about long shots before you want to shoot a half
Speaker 3: court shot. On this one, it would be Drake May
Speaker 3: at plus twenty five hundred. Because in this scenario.
Speaker 2: Is very easy, it's very easy to see.
Speaker 3: It's it's you know, you go. It's Caleb one, Jaden two,
Speaker 3: McCarthy goes three, Marvin Harrison goes four. And now Josh McCown,
Speaker 3: who coached Drake May in high school, is pounding on
Speaker 3: the table. Kevin O'Connell, who desperately needs a quarterback, is
Speaker 3: pounding on the table, and Quacy's sitting there like, okay, guys, okay,
Speaker 3: I'll make the call right and we know that Denver,
Speaker 3: you know I'm sorry that la is gonna take that call.
Speaker 3: They're not trading with the Chargers and they're not trading
Speaker 3: or I'm sorry, they're not trading with the brown because
Speaker 3: they're not trading with the Raiders. So that would be
Speaker 3: the possibility of Drake May going in the fifth slot.
Speaker 3: I think that there's better odds of that than the
Speaker 3: twenty five to one shot right now. But like I said,
Speaker 3: for me, it would be Alt May or you could
Speaker 3: go McCarthy as well. At plus plus four seventy. Those
Speaker 3: would be the three values for me on this board.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Man, plus two twenty five hundred on
Speaker 1: Bette Rivers, I still would take the action on May.
Speaker 1: On other books, I'm seeing anywhere from plus fourteen hundred
Speaker 1: to plus sixteen hundred. But I like that. I like
Speaker 1: that call. It's a real sharp call. Man. Moving over
Speaker 1: to who will be the first running back? Draft that
Speaker 1: and we got a few first positional draft that we're
Speaker 1: gonna cover here or but kicking us off with first
Speaker 1: running back off the board, the two favorites right now
Speaker 1: are Trey Benson at plus two ten Jonathan Brooks at
Speaker 1: plus two fifty. They are lower odds that both of
Speaker 1: those you could find at a few different books of
Speaker 1: the plus two hundred, but there's also a lot of
Speaker 1: other spots. Whether their plus one fifty Blake Korum is
Speaker 1: plus five hundred odds to be the first running back,
Speaker 1: I'm not betting that. I mean, I'm also not betting
Speaker 1: the other two top guys, like they're their odds haven't
Speaker 1: moved that much. But I just don't see there's a
Speaker 1: lot of value in either one of those numbers for
Speaker 1: looking at I mean, they open at plus two to
Speaker 1: fifty and plus two ninety, So it's not like they're
Speaker 1: screaming up the board or anything. It's kind of like
Speaker 1: people don't know what to do with this more. I
Speaker 1: think you're gonna be with me on one of these guys.
Speaker 1: I think the the top two bets for me on
Speaker 1: first running back drafted is either gonna be Jalen Right
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred and you can get his odds
Speaker 1: anywhere from plus five hundred to the lowest I'm seeing
Speaker 1: is plus three seventy. I still think that's viable, or
Speaker 1: my dude, Marshaun Lloyd, who the odds are anywhere from
Speaker 1: plus five hundred to plus eight hundred. But it's either
Speaker 1: Jalen Right or Marshawn Lloyd or where I think the
Speaker 1: value is here at the horrible what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was on vs I N with Tim Marie.
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's a month ago when the Running
Speaker 3: Back Ones dropped. Yeah, that on VSAM Prime Time and
Speaker 3: they asked me about the Running Back One and at
Speaker 3: that time, Jonathan Brooks was the favorite, and I said
Speaker 3: that that Tray Benson should be. That is obviously flipped
Speaker 3: in the market to this point. And now it's Benson,
Speaker 3: you know, goes from the two fifty to the plus
Speaker 3: two ten. It is there value, there's still it's to me,
Speaker 3: you could still bet that.
Speaker 1: I think you could havemit it. But it's not screaming
Speaker 1: at me.
Speaker 3: It's not a go wild value one the ROI you've
Speaker 3: gotten tighter on it for sure. Brooks was the guy
Speaker 3: I was fading for that I could end up being wrong,
Speaker 3: but it was a guy who had a sample of
Speaker 3: ten games that were good. We didn't see his testing
Speaker 3: profile and speed appeared to not be a strong suit
Speaker 3: of his. So for all those reasons, I'm fading him
Speaker 3: as RB one. And I agree with you de braw
Speaker 3: and Jalen Right, I'm actually surprised at his odds. It
Speaker 3: looks like it opened at two ninety and now well
Speaker 3: some books, you know it's three seventy. But like the
Speaker 3: best odds you can get either at fan Duel or
Speaker 3: Bette Rivers at five to one. Right now, to me,
Speaker 3: that's where the value is. This kid is young, lots
Speaker 3: of tread on the tires. Some of our listeners DM
Speaker 3: me and said that I was saying that the opposite
Speaker 3: way the last time I said.
Speaker 1: I remember when we got hit with It's like, wait, okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're saying he has tread left. Okay, tread left?
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, yeah.
Speaker 3: You know a guy that didn't have a ton of
Speaker 3: usage in college because the rotation that they were in,
Speaker 3: but last year broke out. Has the receiving utility, has
Speaker 3: the four to three wheels, has the ninety eight percentile
Speaker 3: size adjusted at athleticism. I know that Jalen Wright is
Speaker 3: getting intense interest from a sect of teams.
Speaker 2: There are there are.
Speaker 3: Some specific teams that like him a whole dang lot.
Speaker 3: And for fantasy players out there that are listening to this,
Speaker 3: obviously we have a lot of those de bro The
Speaker 3: Dallas Cowboys would be the most interesting landing spot of
Speaker 3: those and on draft day for the fantasy players and
Speaker 3: the dynasty players, that's you're paying attention to who Dallas
Speaker 3: drafts because whoever that becomes that running back, they get prioritized.
Speaker 3: But Jalen, right, for me, if you can get the
Speaker 3: five to one, if you're on fan duel, that would
Speaker 3: be probably the best one for me.
Speaker 2: The other one is Benson.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm gonna stick with my dude, Marshawn Lloyd.
Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna get off of that. There have
Speaker 1: been talks or at least rumors out there in the
Speaker 1: ether that he's the RB one on some boards, so
Speaker 1: I think that there is value there. But moving over
Speaker 1: to first wide receiver drafted, I there's just not a
Speaker 1: lot of action here for me. Thor Marvin Harrison is
Speaker 1: minus five hundred. That's dropped. It actually opened at minus
Speaker 1: one thousand, which whatever Elite neighbors is at plus four hundred.
Speaker 1: Romadonsay is at plus three thousand. I mean, really, if
Speaker 1: you wanted to hedge Marv being the first guy, I
Speaker 1: get it, like at the plus four hundred, you could
Speaker 1: sprinkle that into your portfolio. But for me, this is
Speaker 1: probably just a market. I'm just staying away. What do
Speaker 1: you think?
Speaker 2: Yes to that?
Speaker 3: And I think that the bigger takeaway here is Roma Doonzay,
Speaker 3: a guy who could have declared for the last draft,
Speaker 3: would have been a first round pick and would have
Speaker 3: been play to be wide receiver one in that class.
Speaker 3: I like I he took the jump this year where
Speaker 3: he's now a better prospect than he was then he
Speaker 3: would have been heading into last year's draft. But if
Speaker 3: he had gone into that class, he would have been
Speaker 3: picked somewhere where those four receivers went, and he might
Speaker 3: have even led the dance to that. One year later,
Speaker 3: he is thirty to one to be the wide receiver
Speaker 3: one in this class. It just shows you the caliber
Speaker 3: of receiver that Marvin Harrison Junior is and then also
Speaker 3: Molik Neighbors and this ridiculous wide receiver class that we're
Speaker 3: sitting on. But as far as the betting odds, this
Speaker 3: isn't better ball. You know again, like I expect Harrison
Speaker 3: Junior to be the first pick, you know, amongst the receivers.
Speaker 3: Of course, I'm just not the one that can wet
Speaker 3: my beak on on the league Neighbors as the first receiver.
Speaker 2: I would have to believe that to see it, I.
Speaker 1: Mean, I've got him as well wide receiver one. But
Speaker 1: for me so I I believe that there's a world
Speaker 1: where that can happen. But at these odds, I just
Speaker 1: I'm not willing to sit here and lay a lot
Speaker 1: with it, Like there's just better bets on the board
Speaker 1: to make. But moving over to another market where I
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of interest in thor just we
Speaker 1: want to bring this up for the people out there
Speaker 1: are both the bets they need to be targeting and
Speaker 1: also discussing some of these markets where there's no value
Speaker 1: in in the first cornerback draft of market. I just
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of love for man like Quenya Mitchell.
Speaker 1: I think we're in agreement. He's our CB one this year.
Speaker 1: He's at minus one seventy Tyryon Arnold. Even if you
Speaker 1: wanted the hedge that it's not enticing enough. He's only
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five plus one fifty. You can get
Speaker 1: him at DK at plus one ninety five. I think
Speaker 1: I put maybe like a one United bet on Tyryon Arnold,
Speaker 1: but that it was no it would actually was not
Speaker 1: the first cornerback draft because we're gonna discuss later where
Speaker 1: it is. But what are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 1: I think it's probably just to stay away from me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is is is probably a stay away the
Speaker 3: only one if you're a tyryon Arnold.
Speaker 1: Cooper, if you're going to bring up Cooper, I can't
Speaker 1: see him going over these other two guys, can you?
Speaker 2: No? No? And you know how how big of a guy.
Speaker 1: That's why I was like, if you're going to go there,
Speaker 1: I can't see him.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, I just I would be I would
Speaker 3: be stunned if he ended up being the first cornerback
Speaker 3: off the board. As much as I love him, I
Speaker 3: could see a team taking Arnold over Quinnyon. You know,
Speaker 3: Arnold is the technique and the back pedal and the
Speaker 3: willingness to come up and support and run defense. It's
Speaker 3: like he's going to have a lot of fans in
Speaker 3: in the coaching room that are going to be banging
Speaker 3: the table for him. But Quinyon, the evaluators, the decision makers,
Speaker 3: the guys that projected forward, I just find it hard
Speaker 3: to believe that that they're gonna end up eskewing that
Speaker 3: for for a guy like Ernold Quinnon just he checks
Speaker 3: all the boxes with the four to three speed, and
Speaker 3: then what he did in mobile d bro like that,
Speaker 3: because that was the one question of like, yeah, sure
Speaker 3: he dominated in the MAC, but like you know, you know,
Speaker 3: and we did see him, you know, sporadically. We saw
Speaker 3: him one time against Marvin Harrison junior for instance. You
Speaker 3: know Taledo what every now and again we jump up
Speaker 3: in competition, but he went down to the senior ball
Speaker 3: and shut everyone's lights out. So I do believe he
Speaker 3: will be the first cornerback off the board. But this
Speaker 3: one with where the odds board sets, is not better
Speaker 3: ball for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Now moving over to one that both
Speaker 1: of us are hammering right now for total quarterbacks drafted
Speaker 1: and round one, I think you are riding with me
Speaker 1: on this in that the market has this wrong right
Speaker 1: now with all the steam on Boenix and Michael Pinnox
Speaker 1: going round one the under four and a half quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: So basically we're saying, the only guys that get into
Speaker 1: our Drake may JJ McCarthy, Caleb Williams, and Jane Daniels
Speaker 1: the under four and a half right now is anywhere
Speaker 1: from plus one fifty four to plus one seventy. I
Speaker 1: have already bet this in the betting pros app I.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take advantage of all the noise and
Speaker 1: stuff out there. The or We've talked about this since
Speaker 1: it just every time that we've turned on the mics,
Speaker 1: we do nothing. BONICKX and Michael Pennox our first round prospects.
Speaker 1: I don't think that with all this smoke and fire
Speaker 1: and whatever else, that they go first round. I know
Speaker 1: everybody's mocking Bonnicks, I get it, but you're gonna give
Speaker 1: me plus money on fading the narratives. I've already bet it, dude,
Speaker 1: what about you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been mocking Bonex all spring too. It's just
Speaker 3: not that kind of mock.
Speaker 1: The center for the dad joke, I didn't see it.
Speaker 1: I didn't see it. Coven that got me.
Speaker 2: But no, yeah, no, I'm on the under four and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 3: We see this every single spring with the guy the
Speaker 3: quarterback who is outside the first round range, who starts
Speaker 3: to get the oh, he's gonna go in the first
Speaker 3: round and his floor is here, and this team's gonna
Speaker 3: take him if he's there. Last year was Hendon Hooker
Speaker 3: and and I mean people can go back and watch
Speaker 3: our shows and they can watch the mock draft episodes
Speaker 3: we did last year, this.
Speaker 2: Time with scoffed at that there was so much eye rolling.
Speaker 3: My skull eventually was like stop it, your your eyeballs
Speaker 3: can't come up here again. And Hendon Hooker is well,
Speaker 3: I mean Bonix would be in that file him for me,
Speaker 3: Michael Pennix is a bit above that. He would be
Speaker 3: the one guy. But like even even with with Michael Pennix,
Speaker 3: I don't know if you're gonna give me plus one
Speaker 3: seventy five. Absolutely, I'm taking that all day. When this
Speaker 3: thing opened at minus one thirty, that's closer. It's closer
Speaker 3: to the accept Well, you know what, I think that
Speaker 3: the fair odd should be, although to me, frankly, I
Speaker 3: think it should be more like minus one and fifty.
Speaker 3: I think the odds probably should have gotten the other way.
Speaker 3: But people need to keep in mind that, you know,
Speaker 3: how do I say this the markets? You know, for instance,
Speaker 3: in the fall, I do college football betting. The markets
Speaker 3: with that, it's a lot sharper in terms of the
Speaker 3: people that are moving the lines. When you see sharp
Speaker 3: line movement, a lot of times there's stuff behind it,
Speaker 3: whether they have intel, whether it's a model they have
Speaker 3: that's showing value on one side, something legitimate. The draft
Speaker 3: prop market is not that at all. It's just people
Speaker 3: throwing money around. You know, there will be media reports
Speaker 3: where we're done. It changes the odds. There is a
Speaker 3: thing of Malik neighbors looking for houses in California and
Speaker 3: that all of a sudden his odds are the chargers
Speaker 3: change like it ain't even.
Speaker 1: Just chasing social media in the news man, that's all
Speaker 1: it is.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And then they'll they'll buy tickets and then the
Speaker 3: odds move like the sports books are just trying to
Speaker 3: get half of the action on either side, so they're
Speaker 3: gonna they're responding on each side of it. But when
Speaker 3: a media report comes down that suggests something, or when uh,
Speaker 3: you know, a popular mock draft or puts something out,
Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, there's gonna be a bunch
Speaker 3: of money one way, and it creates opportunity in uh,
Speaker 3: in the marketplace.
Speaker 2: And this is one of them.
Speaker 3: You know, it's popular for people in their mock drafts
Speaker 3: to slide in that fifth.
Speaker 2: Quarterback some of them.
Speaker 3: Then this really draws the I rls from thor where
Speaker 3: they put in the six quarterbacks. The first's like, come on, man,
Speaker 3: give you a break. You think next they're gonna got
Speaker 3: the first up, get out of here. But yeah, it's
Speaker 3: a conviction thing, you know. I mean, none of these
Speaker 3: teams are gonna are are you know, calling up thor
Speaker 3: Or They're not calling up anyone else. They're not calling
Speaker 3: Jeremiah or Kiper anyone and saying, hey, we're gonna take
Speaker 3: Michael Pinnox that you know, blank, whatever it's. You know,
Speaker 3: it's a conviction thing. And I don't think that those
Speaker 3: guys are first round talent, certainly not. Next Pennix is
Speaker 3: the only one that you could even come close to
Speaker 3: arguing for. But that's a guy that should be going
Speaker 3: in the second round. If you're gonna give me nearly
Speaker 3: two to one, I'll take that every day on the
Speaker 3: under four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I'm totally with you. I think there's just
Speaker 1: there's there's opportunity and there's there's value there. And speaking
Speaker 1: of opportunity and value, ma'am, you got to be heading
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Speaker 1: Reality sports online dot com. Speaking of real things, baby,
Speaker 1: we gotta be making some real bets. Thore On. The
Speaker 1: first defensive player drafted right now, Dallas Turner is the
Speaker 1: heavy juice favorite minus one ten. And I say heavy
Speaker 1: because everybody else is at plus money. Baby. We got
Speaker 1: lat too at plus three fifty. We got Jared Verse
Speaker 1: at plus four to fifty. The two bets that stand
Speaker 1: out to me man are Latu La Tu at plus
Speaker 1: three fifty. Although I will say this opened at plus
Speaker 1: twenty five hundred, so we missed a betting opportunity there
Speaker 1: for But the guy that's screams out the board for
Speaker 1: me and with this bet is Quenyon Mitchell at plus
Speaker 1: one thousand. I'm just gonna lay this out for how
Speaker 1: this can go. Chicago taking Caleb Washington goes QB, New
Speaker 1: England goes QB, Arizona goes Harrison. Chargers either trade back,
Speaker 1: go QB, offensive line, wide receiver, pick your flavor. The
Speaker 1: Giants the same. Tennessee takes offensive line or trades back Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Let's go baby, give aj Terrell a running mate for
Speaker 1: the years to come. My favorite bet on this one
Speaker 1: is Quinyon at plus one thousand. You can get that
Speaker 1: over on DK right now. Thor what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: You know, when I got done with the edge rushers
Speaker 3: my work on that, you'll recall this. De Bright I
Speaker 3: called you and I you know, I of course I
Speaker 3: watch Outabama live and but you don't want to.
Speaker 1: You know, from that we talked about how much you
Speaker 1: love Dallas Turner. I remember this conversation very very emphatically.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not how.
Speaker 3: You know. You you watch it during the regular season
Speaker 3: and you don't want to take away too many opinions
Speaker 3: from that. But then you know, you watch the cutups,
Speaker 3: and I liked him less the more that I watch.
Speaker 3: I gotta be honest that the athletic testing profile is great,
Speaker 3: and he's got the long ropey arms and and and
Speaker 3: that stuff is great, and he has the flash plays
Speaker 3: on film and and and sometimes you see the stuff
Speaker 3: working in conjunction. He has a very good long arm
Speaker 3: move in conjunction with with with the long arms, but
Speaker 3: not a lot of other moves outside of you know,
Speaker 3: he runs around the offensive tackles way too often, UH
Speaker 3: for for my liking. UH tries to leverage the athleticism
Speaker 3: against those what was the SEC tackles there. I don't
Speaker 3: know how that goes to the NFL. I think it's
Speaker 3: gonna be a rockier acclamation for Dallas Turner. An undersize
Speaker 3: coming downhill UH type edge defender for me, if if
Speaker 3: you're gonna be drafting a dude on the pass rushing utility,
Speaker 3: it's clearly law too. If if your medical team is
Speaker 3: comfortable enough with the medicals on law too.
Speaker 2: And that's been the only question.
Speaker 3: A Lot two would have been my edge one with
Speaker 3: a bullet from the get if there wasn't that medical thing.
Speaker 3: And this is the tough thing about doing a job
Speaker 3: like this is we don't get access to that we
Speaker 3: don't like. The public doesn't, and of course the media does,
Speaker 3: because if the media did, then the public would too.
Speaker 3: But you know, because of that you have to sort
Speaker 3: of extrapolate and and hear whispers and who do you trust,
Speaker 3: and and and and all that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2: The movement in this.
Speaker 3: Market would suggest that, uh, you know, optimistic news about that.
Speaker 3: Certainly LA two's process has gone well, and so if
Speaker 3: if indeed he is has been cleared on that, he
Speaker 3: is absolutely in play to be the first defender. In fact,
Speaker 3: I go as far as to say, if we knew
Speaker 3: that Latu's body was not going to betray him or
Speaker 3: his career was not going to get cut short at
Speaker 3: the next level, he absolutely should be the first defender
Speaker 3: off the board.
Speaker 2: The only question is is the injury.
Speaker 3: He has all the athleticism that you want and the
Speaker 3: production profile is absolutely ludicrous. Go back and look at
Speaker 3: the last two years his sex and pressures per pass
Speaker 3: rushing snap.
Speaker 2: It's insane. It will blow your mind.
Speaker 3: And it's both the athleticism and the fluidity is what
Speaker 3: really jumped you know, Like he has the high octane athleticism,
Speaker 3: but you know when we saw him down at Mobile
Speaker 3: de Bro, he's just.
Speaker 1: Ampolished, dude. He's just so solish.
Speaker 3: And so smooth, like all the movements, it's just so smooth.
Speaker 1: He's like a freaking Swiss army knife. He's like, you
Speaker 1: need a magnifying glass, you need the scissors. Oh, oh,
Speaker 1: you need the tiny knife. He's got all the different
Speaker 1: bags of tricks in his pass rush repertoire man.
Speaker 3: Every single one. And a hustle guy, a great teammate.
Speaker 3: I think I've told this story on a but I
Speaker 3: don't think I've told it on this one. But when
Speaker 3: we were down there on a Rep. Gabe Hall, the
Speaker 3: interior defensive lineman from Baylor, a big, a big guy
Speaker 3: in the inside. You know, he's like six five, three hundred.
Speaker 3: He chased down a running back to the sideline where
Speaker 3: it was like he funneled him to the outside and
Speaker 3: then the running back on this this play and the
Speaker 3: team drills ended up having to run out of bounds
Speaker 3: and a lot too, and it was it was closer
Speaker 3: to the sidelines where Deebro and I were sitting.
Speaker 2: Lot two. Runs over to him and you could hear
Speaker 2: him all around the stadium.
Speaker 3: Gave gave great job, gave awesome hustle, gave great job.
Speaker 2: He's one of those guys. He he's like the guy who.
Speaker 3: Was always encouraging and pointing out and celebrating the hustle
Speaker 3: and the small things of his teammates. Because he's one
Speaker 3: of the guys that does that, he's gonna he ingratiated
Speaker 3: himself to his seammates at UCLA for that reason, the
Speaker 3: coaches are going to love him at the NFL level. Again,
Speaker 3: it just comes down to the medicals, which is the
Speaker 3: one unknowable thing. Obviously, you know, we missed the boat
Speaker 3: at the twenty five hundred, but you know, at three
Speaker 3: and a half to one, I still believe that there's
Speaker 3: a little bit of value there. Again, it just comes
Speaker 3: down to the medicals. The other you mentioned Quinnon Debro
Speaker 3: for sure, that one's just isn't gonna you know, would
Speaker 3: the cornerback be the first position. We talked about the
Speaker 3: first cornerback off the board before. I believe it will
Speaker 3: be Quinyon. So I mean, you can do the math
Speaker 3: on which team is going to be going first if
Speaker 3: they could end up taking a cornerback, you know, be
Speaker 3: at the Falcons Debra you were talking about.
Speaker 2: But at ten to one, that seems.
Speaker 3: Like really really good, a really good price, especially to
Speaker 3: Fade Dallas Turner, who should not be a minus one
Speaker 3: in my opinion. The other one de Broke a little
Speaker 3: bit longer shot Byron Murphy at eleven to one Byron Murphy.
Speaker 3: De bro one of those guys who it's like every
Speaker 3: week he just goes in, like in the consensus, it's
Speaker 3: like a little bit up, a little bit up, a
Speaker 3: little bit up, a little.
Speaker 1: Bit up, little bit up, little bit up.
Speaker 2: He just keeps going and going.
Speaker 3: And so I do believe he is the best interior
Speaker 3: defensive lineman in this class. And I do understand why
Speaker 3: he because he grew on me the more that I
Speaker 3: watch him as well. He gives you the penetration out
Speaker 3: of the three techniques on the interior, the gap shooting stuff.
Speaker 2: But what I appreciate it more is in contrast to
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 3: Of guys like that in run defense, he's not just
Speaker 3: looking to shirt people and shoot gaps lose his gap integrity.
Speaker 3: When he doesn't win that way, He'll stay in that gap,
Speaker 3: keep the gap integrity, keep leverage, and it's really difficult
Speaker 3: to move him when he plants his legs and then
Speaker 3: gets under your pads.
Speaker 2: I really like him for that reason.
Speaker 3: It's sort of a two way guy in terms of that,
Speaker 3: a rarity for for one of those pass rushing interior
Speaker 3: three technique guys and the other thing. The other point
Speaker 3: I make about Murphy is the defensive interior class. People
Speaker 3: got to keep in mind it starts to drop pretty
Speaker 3: quick after Murphy and Newton.
Speaker 1: So the you know, especially with offensive tackle field stuff.
Speaker 1: With Sweat too, I would say that too. It's maybe
Speaker 1: fall Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yah, I agree, Sweat's gonna be our fall guy. Sweat,
Speaker 3: you know before maybe maybe mid second round a little
Speaker 3: bit higher. You know, it would have been the fringes
Speaker 3: of around forty forty five. But yeah, I do think
Speaker 3: he's going to fall into round three now, and who knows,
Speaker 3: I mean, depending on how seriously people take that off
Speaker 3: field thing. The questions he has to answer about that
Speaker 3: could even fall into the top of day three. So
Speaker 3: that's a great pointd Bro, because it knocks out another
Speaker 3: guy potentially that you could have looked at as a.
Speaker 1: Just whittled it down and you made it. You made
Speaker 1: the market for that position even more scarce, so you
Speaker 1: could see teams being aggressive. Like I look, I can
Speaker 1: make you an easy case that Murphy or law To
Speaker 1: could go to Tennessee, Atlanta or Chicago and being the
Speaker 1: first guy off the board, Like Tennessee's got pass rush
Speaker 1: and they got defensive tackles. But some of those guys
Speaker 1: like looking at contract situations, looking at age and things
Speaker 1: like that, Like I'm not telling you Tennessee's pass rush
Speaker 1: is bad. That that would be the spot where I
Speaker 1: would be betting law To or Murphy because they could
Speaker 1: use help at those spots where they've already kind of
Speaker 1: shored up corner and a few other needs. So if
Speaker 1: Tennessee doesn't go offensive line like everybody's projecting, I could
Speaker 1: see Tennessee going with an edge or defensive tackle and
Speaker 1: it's not crazy for her.
Speaker 2: The I just ESPN bet Dallas Turner is minus one
Speaker 2: fifty for this. I just I can't get over it.
Speaker 3: Like Dallas Turner again, six two six eighths two hundred
Speaker 3: and forty seven pounds with an eighty eight percentile athletics score.
Speaker 3: He's never at a PFF grade over eighty two, and
Speaker 3: he's over eighty.
Speaker 2: One point seven. And he's a downhill rusher guy.
Speaker 3: Last year's pass rushing grade with seventy three point six
Speaker 3: latus is ninety one flat like and again like I
Speaker 3: get it with Turner. You know, he did have the
Speaker 3: fifty five pressures last year eleven sacks.
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: But to me, the utility, it's.
Speaker 3: It's just a bit, you know, one sided with Turner
Speaker 3: and he needs to work on that technique. He needs
Speaker 3: to have other stuff off that long arm. And I
Speaker 3: wonder if it's the play strength is the reason that
Speaker 3: he shirts going up against those offensive tackles, And then
Speaker 3: you wonder going to the next level, is that going
Speaker 3: to be an issue when you have to be tangling
Speaker 3: with those guys every single time?
Speaker 2: He needs more tools in the toolbox.
Speaker 3: We'll see if the I mean, like the media clearly
Speaker 3: disagrees with me, you know, like the Turner's been like
Speaker 3: the edge one, and we'll see on draft day. But yeah,
Speaker 3: if again, like if a lot of two his medicals
Speaker 3: are fine, he would for sure be above it. I
Speaker 3: also have Jared Verse above Dallas Turner. I don't think
Speaker 3: that Verse will be the first defender off the board,
Speaker 3: but his odds are for anyone interested is four fifty
Speaker 3: to one.
Speaker 2: But I mean, like, you know another possibility.
Speaker 1: In terms of that, Yeah, I don't disagree, man. I
Speaker 1: would say I'd be betting Verse if we had his
Speaker 1: odds a little bit higher, like probably like plus six
Speaker 1: hundred plus seven hundred. I think you could interest me
Speaker 1: in that, like maybe a small smattering, but even that
Speaker 1: I probably would in a perfect world to really lay
Speaker 1: some coin on it, I'd want Verse like plus nine
Speaker 1: hundred or plus one thousand, like quin Yon. But moving
Speaker 1: over to the draft position prop so looking at weird
Speaker 1: guys could go over on under a certain pick number, Dude,
Speaker 1: this first one kind of sticks out to me. Brock
Speaker 1: Bowers at eleven and a half, the under on the
Speaker 1: eleven and a half, so basically saying the Jets or
Speaker 1: whoever makes a trade with Minnesota at eleven. So I'm
Speaker 1: looking at you Los Angeles Chargers, one of those teams
Speaker 1: takes brock Bowers the under on eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: We're getting plus money at in some books like plus
Speaker 1: one sixty five. Yeah, buddy, you can interest me in that.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think i'd probably be with that
Speaker 3: as well. The odds on that one have really you know,
Speaker 3: of course it open house.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it opened a heavy juice on under ten and
Speaker 1: a half. And now we're moving like, what what's.
Speaker 2: Changed with that?
Speaker 3: We have? We have gotten the one extra slot, you know,
Speaker 3: to so for the trade down possibility, right, but even so,
Speaker 3: you know, but the other thing that changed the odds
Speaker 3: was there was some reports out of New York that
Speaker 3: you know that they could be looking at offensive line
Speaker 3: that maybe they weren't, you know, the brock Bowers wasn't
Speaker 3: the fixed outcome that some people were you know, had
Speaker 3: thought before. But you just have to think when they're
Speaker 3: on the clock, Aaron Rodgers is around there, and then
Speaker 3: thinking about the team and the window that they have
Speaker 3: right now. Bowers would be an enormous upgrade at two
Speaker 3: different spots there. They need a pass catching tight end
Speaker 3: and they also need a starting slot both still like
Speaker 3: I mean, however, you want to look at Bowers, plenty
Speaker 3: of utility for a team like that, and in the
Speaker 3: final years of Rogers' career. I think with it being
Speaker 3: the eleven and a half with getting the one sixty five,
Speaker 3: I get the risk on this one because he could
Speaker 3: fall down. He could fall into the teams, absolutely, But
Speaker 3: if you're getting the plus one sixty five and you
Speaker 3: get that extra slot, I think there's enough value to
Speaker 3: justify an under bet there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do too. And the other thing we alread
Speaker 1: even talked about is what if you have a team,
Speaker 1: like we're talking about the Minnesota draft spot. What if
Speaker 1: you have the Chargers. If they don't select him, what
Speaker 1: if another team comes up and gets him, Like we've
Speaker 1: heard a lot of people like wanting to mock him
Speaker 1: to Indy. Indy's right there in striking distance, Dude, they're
Speaker 1: at fifteen, So I don't think it's also insane. Like
Speaker 1: playing the range of outcomes here, You've got a lot
Speaker 1: of outs with getting the extra slot, Like if this
Speaker 1: was ten and a half, then I would disagree with it.
Speaker 1: Then I wouldn't be betting this. But plus odds and
Speaker 1: we got the pick moved up a little bit, so
Speaker 1: you get two outs right there, and you get the
Speaker 1: out of some team like Indy wants to go from
Speaker 1: fifteen to eleven and take him. You're still getting the
Speaker 1: under bet there, dude. All right, moving over to the
Speaker 1: next one man, tarry On Arnold the under at sixteen
Speaker 1: and a half. You can get plus money at plus
Speaker 1: one fifteen on some books. I'm in on that, throwing
Speaker 1: a little bit of coin at that. What are your
Speaker 1: thoughts on there? I just think we have outs for
Speaker 1: terryon Arnold, like Indeed has corner needs Denver could take him,
Speaker 1: and then we're talking about Quinnon. If he goes top ten,
Speaker 1: top eleven, then yeah, Terryon Arnold again talking about scarcity
Speaker 1: with these guys cornerback, he could be the next guy.
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying like I wish the odds were
Speaker 1: a little bit higher on this, but what are your
Speaker 1: thoughts on Terryon Arnold?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Quinnon is is definitely gonna go above that.
Speaker 3: So that sort of window there is where this bet
Speaker 3: comes into play for Terry On.
Speaker 2: Is he gonna go in that.
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: Ten two?
Speaker 3: What is it?
Speaker 2: Sixteen range?
Speaker 3: I think that there's It's not my favorite one on
Speaker 3: the board, but I could see sprinkling a little bit
Speaker 3: on the under of this getting the plus one fifteen juice.
Speaker 1: And speaking of Quinnon again, if you're making a very
Speaker 1: pro Quinyon case, or you're trying to hedge some of
Speaker 1: these other corners, I would I do like the action
Speaker 1: on him as far as like the under on thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half again talking about if he goes to Atlanta,
Speaker 1: he goes to a few of these other teams that
Speaker 1: have corner needs. The under thirteen and a half you
Speaker 1: can get plus money on some books a plus one twenty.
Speaker 1: I kind of hopped over Nate Wiggins because I really
Speaker 1: don't care, Like twenty six and a half, it's minus
Speaker 1: odds on both sides. I'm just not betting that. But
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on Quinyon Quinyon that?
Speaker 2: That's a bet for me.
Speaker 3: Yes, under thirteen and a half, especially getting the plus odds.
Speaker 3: I think that there is real value there. That's my
Speaker 3: favorite so far that we've gone over Wiggins. That's right
Speaker 3: on the line. That's a fair price. You could see
Speaker 3: him going, you know, within a three to four band outcome.
Speaker 3: Above that, you could see him going within a three
Speaker 3: to four band outcome beneath that, but that is right
Speaker 3: in play with where he's going to go, So.
Speaker 2: That would be a stay away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and pretty much I'm staying away from the next
Speaker 1: two bets too, like layout to Latu's under at eighteen
Speaker 1: and a half again we've talked about him, is at
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen if you want to bet the over,
Speaker 1: but I would not be betting that at eighteen and
Speaker 1: a half. You can get plus money on that. I'm
Speaker 1: staying away from that because our position is we think
Speaker 1: he's underrated, probably goes a little b higher than people think.
Speaker 1: Same thing with Joe Alt. The under seven and a
Speaker 1: half is that minus two fifty. What are your thoughts
Speaker 1: any on a law to or Alt.
Speaker 3: Yeah, My thoughts on these on both lat Too and
Speaker 3: Alt are if you want to bet, like if you're
Speaker 3: bullish on those guys, there's better odds in the slot
Speaker 3: market for Alt. You know, for instance, at the five
Speaker 3: to one we talked about that earlier, where you'd get
Speaker 3: nearly five to one on him. That's where I would
Speaker 3: go as opposed to you know, if you go under
Speaker 3: seven and a half, it's minus two fifty. To me,
Speaker 3: that's it's almost cost prohibitive.
Speaker 2: To play that.
Speaker 3: I would more with him, either go with a specific
Speaker 3: slot or a specific team so you can get it juiced,
Speaker 3: because there's not a ton of possibilities obviously, when you're
Speaker 3: talking top seven, it's only seven options and the the
Speaker 3: top three teams are already out, so's it's limited ones
Speaker 3: with lot two if you want to bet on him,
Speaker 3: as opposed to doing the slot one here, where again
Speaker 3: you have to pay the juice. On the other side,
Speaker 3: I would do the you know, take a shot on
Speaker 3: whether it's first defender or whatever. If they had modified
Speaker 3: slot ones where you could toggle it and then you
Speaker 3: could get the bigger juice. I would do that with
Speaker 3: a lot two because again going back to with the
Speaker 3: one unknowable with him, it's the medicals. If the medicals
Speaker 3: are cleared, that's where he becomes in play to go
Speaker 3: anywhere you know, top around the top ten, right outside
Speaker 3: of it, and where he could be in play to
Speaker 3: be the first defender off the board. But it's unknowable
Speaker 3: if they got if team's got bad reports on that,
Speaker 3: then it could go the other way. That's why I
Speaker 3: would prefer to do the long wet my beak on
Speaker 3: a long shot bet with lot two as opposed to
Speaker 3: a bet like.
Speaker 1: De Yeah, I don't disagree, man, and just moving down
Speaker 1: the board, I think for me, moving on the board,
Speaker 1: I want to highlight a few of the ones that
Speaker 1: stick out to me because a lot of these are
Speaker 1: non bets for me. Brian Thomas under sixty and a
Speaker 1: half at plus one forty, I'm in on that. My
Speaker 1: last mock, I give him the indye at fifteen. I
Speaker 1: think it's a very very realistic landing spot as well
Speaker 1: as I think that it's in play for one of
Speaker 1: these teams. I'm looking at you Buffalo to possibly trade
Speaker 1: up and go after Brian Thomas. Looking at anything else,
Speaker 1: I do think and I'm not betting this, but I
Speaker 1: think it's very interesting and telling of the QB market
Speaker 1: and stuff. Anybody betting that over four and a half
Speaker 1: Michael Pennix is his over thirty two and a half,
Speaker 1: so basically saying that he's not a first round pick
Speaker 1: is is minus one ninety. So again, look where you're
Speaker 1: placing your money people, But for me, I mean, look,
Speaker 1: the only standout I bet left is the is the
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas bet at the plus money. Really, the rest
Speaker 1: of these a lot of these are stay away, but
Speaker 1: anything else left on the board, Terry you right now for?
Speaker 1: And what are your thoughts on Brian Thomas.
Speaker 3: The Brian Thomas one's interesting because yeah, I do think
Speaker 3: that one comes down to Indy, And with Indy, it's
Speaker 3: the three dimensional chess of what on day two, which
Speaker 3: which receiver is gonna be there? What's the difference between
Speaker 3: him and say Brian Thomas, and then the other position,
Speaker 3: Let's say cornerback right, Let's say it's uh, Terry on Arnold.
Speaker 3: What's the difference between Terry on Arnold and then when
Speaker 3: our next pick on day two and what's the discrepancy
Speaker 3: between the two. So you're playing some three dimensional chess there.
Speaker 3: That's where they could end up deferring off of Brian Thomas.
Speaker 3: But I think Brian Thomas is such a good fit
Speaker 3: for for them, the deep ball guy with Anthony Richardson,
Speaker 3: It's it's sort of perfect. And then you get the
Speaker 3: spacing for for downs and Pittman and the run game
Speaker 3: everything like that. But yeah, that's what it comes down to.
Speaker 3: So I'd be okay with that one. Not my favorite
Speaker 3: bet on the board because I could see that one
Speaker 3: going either way, But I could. I wouldn't argue against
Speaker 3: that one at all. I'm definitely you mentioned I'm fading Pennex,
Speaker 3: fading Nicks at the odds that they're at Nicks as
Speaker 3: twenty six and a half get out of here.
Speaker 2: Definitely going over on those ones.
Speaker 3: Just perusing a couple of these other ones, I think
Speaker 3: you could probably comfortably bet the over on Jackson power
Speaker 3: at Johnson at thirty two and a half there. You know,
Speaker 3: earlier this process there was a lot of enthusiasm for him,
Speaker 3: but there's been a lot of reports recently that looks
Speaker 3: like he's going to get pushed out of the first round.
Speaker 3: So I think that you could bet that one. J. J.
Speaker 3: McCarthy at the five and a half. We have our
Speaker 3: bets on on McCarthy and our portfolio at more juet
Speaker 3: odds and that once.
Speaker 2: I probably stay away.
Speaker 3: From that one personally for me, if you want to
Speaker 3: go a bit of a longer shot one that I
Speaker 3: like a little bit more, Tyler Geydon at over twenty
Speaker 3: nine and a half half.
Speaker 2: Some people like Tyler Geydon more than me.
Speaker 3: To me, he's a second round guy, you know, Will
Speaker 3: a team take a shot on him on the in
Speaker 3: the late first Yeah, maybe the physical tools are really good.
Speaker 3: I definitely get it, But people need to keep in
Speaker 3: mind again, the offensive tackle class is frigging stacked, and
Speaker 3: it's stacked into day two. Why are you going like
Speaker 3: in a regular tackle class, that kind of guy, that's
Speaker 3: when he gets reached on in the first round.
Speaker 2: I don't underst like in this one. I don't understand
Speaker 2: why you would do that.
Speaker 3: When you can get a guy like Patrick Paul in
Speaker 3: the mid to late second round to come in and
Speaker 3: play immediately, you're gonna reach on Tyler Guyden a round
Speaker 3: before that.
Speaker 2: At twenty nine and a half. You can get on
Speaker 2: the over.
Speaker 3: You can get plus two thirty at Caesars on the
Speaker 3: over at Tyler Guiden getting better than two to one.
Speaker 3: I will definitely take that. The other one I was
Speaker 3: gonna say was Chop Robinson over twenty six and a half.
Speaker 2: I like Chop. I do.
Speaker 3: The pass rush, especially in the pressure rate, everything like that. However,
Speaker 3: very short arms, very short arms, and he's not good
Speaker 3: in run defense either. And the short arms thing it
Speaker 3: manifests in a couple of different ways, even beyond the
Speaker 3: obvious ones that are are statistical. He had a big
Speaker 3: mistackle rate, which I think is in part attributable to
Speaker 3: the tackle radius.
Speaker 2: And then the other thing.
Speaker 3: The past couple of years he had the bizarre thing
Speaker 3: where the pressure rates were always insane, but the sack
Speaker 3: the sacks weren't there with it. And you could argue
Speaker 3: a little bit having a little bit of a smaller
Speaker 3: fisher net to catch the fish is one of the
Speaker 3: reasons that they're getting.
Speaker 2: Off the line.
Speaker 3: So again, I like the ability to generate the pressure
Speaker 3: in the athleticism, But to me, that's a guy that
Speaker 3: profiles generally as a guy that goes at the top
Speaker 3: of the second as opposed to the late first And
Speaker 3: at twenty six and a half, I'm going over on
Speaker 3: that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can definitely get down with that. My favorite
Speaker 1: bet and the more that I thought about this that
Speaker 1: you mentioned was the guit and over twenty andine and
Speaker 1: a half, and I just think, like, with that bet, dude,
Speaker 1: like you're just making a bet that, Okay, Green Bay
Speaker 1: or Dallas, who both have offensive line needs, go with
Speaker 1: Barton or Morgan or Memes or some combination of that.
Speaker 1: And then we have teams at the end of the
Speaker 1: first round taking tackles like Baltimore needs a write tackle,
Speaker 1: San Fran, Kansas City. All of them need tackles. So
Speaker 1: all you're doing is saying, Okay, Guiden makes it into
Speaker 1: the first round, but he goes over and he goes
Speaker 1: to Baltimore, Sam Fran or KC at plus money. Oh baby,
Speaker 1: I'm so in on that. I'm adding that to the
Speaker 1: betting card man. But look, this has been our NFL
Speaker 1: Draft betting preview with Thorn and I again. Go check
Speaker 1: out the Betting Pros app. You need and all the
Speaker 1: odds again that we talked about on this entire show
Speaker 1: can be found at bettingpros dot com slash draft odds.
Speaker 1: Get into the prop pick challenge again. I don't love
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Speaker 1: minimum to enter four and I will be back next
Speaker 1: week to dive further and further into this NFL Draft class.
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