Speaker 1: It's only fifteen to ten touched up.
Speaker 2: Such. All right, guys, we're getting closer. Welcome into a
Speaker 2: brand new episode of Chargers Weekly. We're about a week
Speaker 2: from the twenty twenty four NFL Draft and as always,
Speaker 2: joined by Matt Muddy Smith. Buddy, I think the people
Speaker 2: have heard enough of us over the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: Why don't you introduce a friend of the show to
Speaker 2: our listeners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is our fan appreciation episode. If you will,
Speaker 3: the amount of incoming for suggesting. It could be O line,
Speaker 3: it could be Byron Murphy. Maybe it's the first corner.
Speaker 3: Could it be an edge? All of those things will
Speaker 3: be put, will be put. We'll put a pin in
Speaker 3: it for today because Matt Harmon does as good of
Speaker 3: a job as anyone. When it comes draft time and
Speaker 3: you want to talk about wide receivers, that is what
Speaker 3: this pod is going to be going into the draft
Speaker 3: on a twenty fifth in the first round, the number
Speaker 3: five overall pick. All we're gonna do is talk wide receivers.
Speaker 3: It's reception perception dot com. UH follow him on all
Speaker 3: the social media channels. Again, there is no better wide
Speaker 3: receiver resource you can get, and UH, you know think
Speaker 3: about this because the three of us work together at
Speaker 3: NFL Network at NFL dot Com. It's it's like all
Speaker 3: your favorite bands, may they stay together forever. And that's
Speaker 3: what this is right here. You reunion of sorts, Matt.
Speaker 3: So thanks for a liit man. We appreciate it.
Speaker 4: Well, so many things to say. I mean literally, I
Speaker 4: have the record all your favorite bands by.
Speaker 3: Don I think I didn't notice there, but this this guy,
Speaker 3: I mean, he is an outflute pro over here.
Speaker 4: That's the first thing. It's great to see both you guys.
Speaker 4: It's awesome to talk to you, especially about this particular
Speaker 4: topic because listen, I I often push back sometimes when
Speaker 4: people say about your favorite you know, TV series, your
Speaker 4: favorite movie or whatever, like, oh, this storyline, it's just
Speaker 4: fans service, Okay, they're just well, what are we doing
Speaker 4: if not servicing the fans here? So yeah, I have
Speaker 4: seen the Chargers. Fans are dead set. There's no way
Speaker 4: because every NFL draft is so predictable and always goes
Speaker 4: to plan. There's just no way that they're not coming
Speaker 4: away with one of these top wide receivers. So let's
Speaker 4: service the fans. Let's talk about this position that they're
Speaker 4: very very invested in for good reason.
Speaker 3: Muddy kick it off. Well, I'll start with this Matt
Speaker 3: who's your favorite? Because they may have their picks, It's
Speaker 3: very possible that Arizona trades out at four. That maybe
Speaker 3: if if the scenario is we've got four quarterbacks, the
Speaker 3: Chargers decide to stick and pick at number five, which
Speaker 3: guy do you like best?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So my mission statement with this draft class is that
Speaker 4: I don't think you can really go wrong with any
Speaker 4: of these three top prospects. To me, it's a clear cut,
Speaker 4: clear cut group of three here at the top in
Speaker 4: Tier one. All of those guys, in terms of my
Speaker 4: stacked prospect board from the last four classes, they are
Speaker 4: all tier one prospects. Marvin Harrison, Roma Dunza, and Malik Nate.
Speaker 4: They're guys you can take in the top ten. I
Speaker 4: think they're guys that are ready to be superstar receivers.
Speaker 4: They're ready to start from day one and handle a
Speaker 4: high amount of volume. So, because we know how this goes,
Speaker 4: we have to debate everything. Everything has to be a debate.
Speaker 4: Everybody's got to have hot takes. In my personal opinion, like, hey,
Speaker 4: you like this guy with this guy that's totally fine.
Speaker 4: You like this guy or the other, totally fine too.
Speaker 4: I think a lot of it just comes down to
Speaker 4: what you value at the position, and me what I
Speaker 4: value at the position is I have an appreciation for
Speaker 4: all traits, and I have an appreciation for all abilities.
Speaker 4: But for me, if you can be a guy that
Speaker 4: can run out day one and play as a high quality,
Speaker 4: high target earning X receiver because of your ability to
Speaker 4: run routes with refinement, your ability to separate at all
Speaker 4: three levels, and also can make plays in tight coverage,
Speaker 4: That's what I'm going to value. So ultimately I came
Speaker 4: away with Marvin Harrison Junior as my top ranked receiver
Speaker 4: in this draft class. It was, i will say, a
Speaker 4: very close debate between him and Roman Dunsay, just because
Speaker 4: I love a Dunza's film. I think he is just
Speaker 4: a fantastic prospect for so many different reasons. But the
Speaker 4: ultimate tie breaker for me, if like if the Chargers
Speaker 4: were hiring me as a consultant to what would you
Speaker 4: do here? I would go Harrison, especially with this quarterback
Speaker 4: and this offense and everything, because I think Justin Herbert
Speaker 4: is so ready to elevate a prospect like this is
Speaker 4: ready to work with the top tier separation X receiver
Speaker 4: like Marvin Harrison. And because this is a guy that
Speaker 4: everybody has known he's the dude for multiple years, you
Speaker 4: see defenses treat him the way that he will likely
Speaker 4: be treated if he develops into a high tier alpha
Speaker 4: at the NFL level. In terms of the guys I've
Speaker 4: charted just prospect history and reception perception, he has handled
Speaker 4: the most double coverage by a wide margin. In this
Speaker 4: draft class alone. He's handled more double coverage like two
Speaker 4: times the amount of double coverage and a guy like
Speaker 4: Roma Dunze or Malik Neighbors. And some of that comes
Speaker 4: down to the offense they played in, the quarterbacks they
Speaker 4: play with, and the surrounding talent and stuff like that.
Speaker 4: But he not only has that high rate of double coverage,
Speaker 4: also in terms of anybody that's even eight percent and above,
Speaker 4: his success rate is the highest. So this is the
Speaker 4: guy that gets open regardless of the coverage. I just
Speaker 4: can't say enough good things about him as a player.
Speaker 4: So ultimately, if the decision was me and you have
Speaker 4: your pick of them all at five, I would go
Speaker 4: with Harrison.
Speaker 2: So but the reason why, obviously Chargers fans are really
Speaker 2: high on talking about a wide receiver at five or
Speaker 2: early is because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are no
Speaker 2: longer with the team. But as Money as stated, there's
Speaker 2: a lot of holes on this roster. And if you
Speaker 2: can trade back and a crew more picks and you know,
Speaker 2: get a corner or get a defensive tackle or you know,
Speaker 2: continue to show up the offensive line, that's a route
Speaker 2: that I think a lot of Charger fans can also see.
Speaker 2: But if they do stick and pick, let's say a
Speaker 2: guy like Marvin Harrison, how will he help the running game?
Speaker 2: Because right now it's Joshua Palmer and Quinton Johnson on
Speaker 2: the outside. To have a guy and you talked about
Speaker 2: just just commanding double teams, how can one of these
Speaker 2: big three help a Jim Harball offense in a running
Speaker 2: game specifically?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 4: And it's funny because I feel like Greg Roman and
Speaker 4: Jim Harbaugh and these guys talking about, like imagine Justin
Speaker 4: Herbert with a with a good run game, It's almost
Speaker 4: become like a trigger word for people on the outside.
Speaker 1: Like what are we talking about?
Speaker 4: Like we need to put a bit receivers and stuff
Speaker 4: like that. And look like I hosted a podcast with
Speaker 4: Austin Eckler for the last two years. Yeah, and despite
Speaker 4: all of the production that Eckler had, even he would
Speaker 4: come on the podcast sometimes and voices frustrations about the
Speaker 4: run game, and like, some of that's him, some of
Speaker 4: that is the players around him. Even if he's not,
Speaker 4: He's never gonna sit there and say like, oh yeah this,
Speaker 4: I'll go ahead and say they've had a rough job
Speaker 4: like blocking with tight ends and stuff like that the
Speaker 4: last couple of years. So there's a lot that can
Speaker 4: go into fixing the run game beyond just let's get
Speaker 4: a running back and like let's you know, let's build
Speaker 4: up the offensive line or have a good system in place.
Speaker 4: You're right, Chris at the wide receivers can be a
Speaker 4: part of this equation. Like think about some of the
Speaker 4: best run games in the NFL. They're not only just
Speaker 4: good quality units overall, they can throw a lot at
Speaker 4: you from a scheme respective Like I think about the
Speaker 4: way San Francisco varies up their their man and gap
Speaker 4: scheme versus also their own zone scheme runs. That's that's
Speaker 4: a huge part of it. But also it's because they
Speaker 4: put you in a buying from a passing game standpoint.
Speaker 4: You know, if you have a guy on the outside
Speaker 4: who can dictate coverages, well that's one extra defender you
Speaker 4: can't bring down in the box to defend the run game.
Speaker 4: And then no, by the way, if we're getting into
Speaker 4: positive down and down in distant situations with the run
Speaker 4: game on early downs, well then we're looking at more
Speaker 4: favorable situations on third now where we can throw the
Speaker 4: ball to this high tier X receiver or whoever they
Speaker 4: end up taking. So to me, it's it all works
Speaker 4: together if you can get that guy on the outside
Speaker 4: that threatens defenses vertically even and obviously if you take
Speaker 4: one of these guys at five, they're going to be
Speaker 4: a high target earning player. But even if you can
Speaker 4: get somebody, they don't take somebody at five, They take
Speaker 4: somebody in the second, third round, someone to clear out
Speaker 4: the field. That can bring a whole new dimension to
Speaker 4: your offense. Because, in my opinion, watching the Chargers of
Speaker 4: the last few years they had, you know, people were
Speaker 4: paying attention to the run game. For sure, they're dedicating
Speaker 4: extra resources to consider that run game, but also they
Speaker 4: never had a real deep threat there either, Like you
Speaker 4: have Mike Williams, who's a deep threat, but he's a
Speaker 4: contested catch deep threat. He's not like a vertical speed
Speaker 4: type of player, so you're you're dedicating eyes towards him.
Speaker 4: But it's just different when it's someone that you know,
Speaker 4: can you know cut cut you down in one strike? Really,
Speaker 4: So I think they've suffered with like a a high
Speaker 4: concentrated line of scrimmage passing game, a short passing game,
Speaker 4: and also kind of an inefficient run game. This coach's
Speaker 4: clearly looking to fix both of those problems with hopefully
Speaker 4: a few strokes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, if we can, And I think it's fair. Look,
Speaker 3: a lot of the people listening may may feel like
Speaker 3: we're talking down to them. But when I say this,
Speaker 3: but no, just what it's there's nothing wrong with with
Speaker 3: walking through you say X, there's Z, there's slot when
Speaker 3: it comes to and this is where I'm at with it,
Speaker 3: Dunes And I've said it a million times. I'm biased,
Speaker 3: I get it. I'm a West Coast guy. I love
Speaker 3: Pac twelve football. I watched him play a Bishop Gorman
Speaker 3: and destroy people in high school. I'm a big and
Speaker 3: I just love the way he went through the process.
Speaker 3: While I'm going to the combine. Hey man, I don't
Speaker 3: care about Molik Neighbors and Marvin Harrison. I want to
Speaker 3: measure myself against the greatest receivers that have ever done
Speaker 3: these drills. There's just there's a presence to him. There's
Speaker 3: something that I think he brings that may be beyond
Speaker 3: just what he does on the field. And he's incredible
Speaker 3: on the field. But you said X, and to me, Matt,
Speaker 3: I think about the wide receiver room. I'm a big
Speaker 3: Josh Palmer guy. I think they got to figure out
Speaker 3: how to maximize Quinton Johnson, and that means where you
Speaker 3: play him and where you don't play him. So the
Speaker 3: whole Neighbors debate, do you think Neighbors is an X
Speaker 3: or do you think you're gonna be more likely to
Speaker 3: play him at a ze or really a slot. Like
Speaker 3: that's kind of where that whole debate comes in for me.
Speaker 3: If Harrison is off the board and everybody's streaming about
Speaker 3: Neighbors because the film is so freaking fun to watch.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's the easiest player to love. Like you turn
Speaker 4: on three or four plays, you're like, uh, yeah, I
Speaker 4: get it. He's faster than everybody else on the field,
Speaker 4: he breaks angles and ankles. Really, he's just a tremendous
Speaker 4: player to watch. He's, like I said, easy to love.
Speaker 4: I do agree with you though that it's a difficult projection.
Speaker 4: It's not a difficult projection x I shouldn't put it
Speaker 4: that way. But it's just it's the least clean of
Speaker 4: these three because you see these other two guys, Marvin
Speaker 4: Harrison and Roma Dunsay, and I share your affection with
Speaker 4: Roma Dunsa as a now East Coast guy.
Speaker 1: I'm not biased, right, I don't know.
Speaker 4: So I think a Dunza is just like ready to
Speaker 4: hit the NFL field and be good right away. I
Speaker 4: think he has a really high floor. I also think
Speaker 4: he has a really high ceiling. For Yahoo this year,
Speaker 4: I did a video series with another former NFL or
Speaker 4: Dylan Milner, working with us now. So just let's keep
Speaker 4: the reunion, let go and yeah we put we put
Speaker 4: us a little series together where I did aggressive and
Speaker 4: cautious comps. My cautious comp for Romadunza was Alan Robinson,
Speaker 4: like a good quality starting X receiver who's a better
Speaker 4: route runner, a better separator than credited, but can also
Speaker 4: win in those contested catch situations, and again that's being cautious.
Speaker 4: My aggressive comp for Romadunza was DeVante Adams, a guy
Speaker 4: that has really no holes in his game, a fantastic technician,
Speaker 4: catches everything can Also, you know he's not going to
Speaker 4: give you the Molik Neighbors after catch plays, but he's
Speaker 4: gonna break a few tackles and get some extra yardage
Speaker 4: and be an asset like a guy that at his peak,
Speaker 4: you can funnel thirty percent of your offense through that
Speaker 4: guy and never lose a minute of sleep. Like that's
Speaker 4: who I think the ceiling comparison is for Roma Dunsay,
Speaker 4: but with Neighbors. And why I just ended up having
Speaker 4: him three of this group is just because he did
Speaker 4: play out of the slot the most in his perception
Speaker 4: perception sample, fifty point three percent of his snaps in
Speaker 4: the slot off the ball. Now he shows you the
Speaker 4: skills to win against press coverage. Not at the level
Speaker 4: of the other three players, but like a seventy two
Speaker 4: percent success rate versus press and reception perception. That's pretty
Speaker 4: good for a college prospect. That's again not the level
Speaker 4: of Harrison, not the level of Roma Dunze, but it's
Speaker 4: pretty good in something I think you can build a
Speaker 4: foundation on. But if we're talking about at the end
Speaker 4: of the rookie season for these three guys, he is
Speaker 4: the least developed player of the three. I wouldn't be
Speaker 4: surprised because I think he's the least developed player right
Speaker 4: now today. So if you're looking at a player you
Speaker 4: need to sort of like massage his role a little bit, Well,
Speaker 4: you kind of already have that guy in Quentin Johnson,
Speaker 4: And like I don't I like Josh Palmer as a three.
Speaker 4: I think that's ideally what he should be. But right
Speaker 4: now he's the best receiver, most accomplished receiver on the roster.
Speaker 4: Is he best suited as the X receiver? I'm not
Speaker 4: sure so just for that team alone, Like he certainly
Speaker 4: would create explosive plays, and justin Herbert, we be able
Speaker 4: to spray the ball over the field with the guy
Speaker 4: like Elie Neighbors and that sort of vertical ability. But
Speaker 4: I see where you're saying there. From a deployment perspective,
Speaker 4: he presents the most questions, Harved.
Speaker 2: We hear so much about how deep the class is,
Speaker 2: but we continue to talk about these big three that
Speaker 2: would likely go in the top ten and money. I
Speaker 2: had this discussion last week, the gap between the top
Speaker 2: three and the rest of the guys, Brian Thomas, Lad McConkey,
Speaker 2: There's like a host of guys that you can see
Speaker 2: in like the mid to late first round, early second round.
Speaker 2: How big is that gap between the top three and
Speaker 2: the rest of the crop.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm boring, and I have Brian Thomas as my
Speaker 4: wide receiver four just like consensus does. And I actually
Speaker 4: think that there is a gap from those three to
Speaker 4: Brian Thomas. Like I said, those three guys in terms
Speaker 4: of my stacked board from the last four classes, they're
Speaker 4: all Tier one prospects up there with the Garrett Wilson's,
Speaker 4: the Jamar Chases, the Chris O Laves, the DeVante Smiths,
Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. Other names in there as well,
Speaker 4: Like they're clearly in that tier. I think Brian Thomas
Speaker 4: is a tier down from those players. He would have
Speaker 4: been if he was in last year's draft class, for example,
Speaker 4: he would have been in consideration to be the top
Speaker 4: prospect in last year's class, just based on how I
Speaker 4: have these guys graded.
Speaker 1: But then I.
Speaker 4: Also think there's a little bit of a drop off
Speaker 4: from Brian Thomas, who's not a perfect projection. He's a
Speaker 4: guy that I think, yeah, you only ran free routes
Speaker 4: really in college, but that's okay because sixty seven percent
Speaker 4: of his routes slant curl or go route. If you
Speaker 4: look at DK Metcalf's rookie season, sixty percent of his
Speaker 4: routes were slant curl go routes, So you can work
Speaker 4: around that. But I do think he's a guy that
Speaker 4: isn't ready to hit the field and be a day
Speaker 4: one kind of starting, high volume receiver.
Speaker 1: I'd love to see.
Speaker 4: Him land on a team like the Colts or the Cowboys,
Speaker 4: even the Jaguars a little bit like a guy that
Speaker 4: you have, you know, for those three spots. You got
Speaker 4: Michael Pittman, you got See Lamb, you got Christian Kirk,
Speaker 4: you have a high volume player already, and like you
Speaker 4: can kind of ease Brian Thomas in as you're starting
Speaker 4: outside receiver. The next guys after that I think are
Speaker 4: all sort of late Round one, early round two type
Speaker 4: of players. But I like those those players a lot,
Speaker 4: and again, those guys are going to be similarly graded
Speaker 4: to the players that went in the first round of
Speaker 4: last year's draft class, Like I have the Ricky Piersoll's,
Speaker 4: the Lad mcconkey's, the eighty Mitchells. Those guys are all
Speaker 4: kind of in the same bucket of prospects to me
Speaker 4: as Jordan Addison, as Quentin Johnson where he went last
Speaker 4: year with Zay Flowers. Now Jay Flower is my favorite
Speaker 4: of that group. But again, I think that kind of
Speaker 4: gives you a sort of sense of how I view
Speaker 4: those players and where they stack up.
Speaker 3: But you know, with reception perception, you've been doing it
Speaker 3: so long, Matt, You've got the historical context, how for
Speaker 3: or your top you know, what you rated as your
Speaker 3: top receiver or these like high first rounders, there's a
Speaker 3: very low bust factor when you're taking a receiver high.
Speaker 3: Now there are there's a bus factor when you're taking
Speaker 3: them a little bit later, yea, And there's a bus
Speaker 3: factor in the second round. But from what you've noticed,
Speaker 3: how often has your like what I'm thinking, what I'm
Speaker 3: getting at here is you can't miss. If you're stuck
Speaker 3: at five, you can't miss. You know, what do you
Speaker 3: think is a bust factor in terms of one of
Speaker 3: these three Like we see with quarterbacks, every year, Hey,
Speaker 3: you know one of them is not going to make it.
Speaker 3: Before go in the top four, at least one of
Speaker 3: them is not going to make it. Is that your
Speaker 3: experience with receivers that you've charted, when you have them
Speaker 3: projected this high, like the number one, two or three
Speaker 3: receiver in a class.
Speaker 4: The Tier one receivers, No, Like, I think there's a
Speaker 4: really high floor with those players. I kind of honestly
Speaker 4: kind of compare this class a little bit with the
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two class because I gave Tier one grades
Speaker 4: to all three of Chris Olave, Drake London, and Garrett
Speaker 4: Wilson in that order. I actually think that if you
Speaker 4: could like kind of map those street players, so the
Speaker 4: guys in this year's class, Like, I think Marvin Harrison
Speaker 4: is a better version of Drake London, but he's kind
Speaker 4: of like Drake London perimeter receiver that can separate and
Speaker 4: a little underrated like as a separator, really high quality technician,
Speaker 4: but again, Marvin Harrison is a better version of Drake London.
Speaker 4: And then I think like Chris Olave is sort of
Speaker 4: the Roma Dunze, but Roma Dunze is like the souped
Speaker 4: up version of Chris o'lave. He's bigger, he's better and
Speaker 4: contest the situations, and he's a better yak threat.
Speaker 1: But again, like a technician that.
Speaker 4: Was in school for four years, so some of the
Speaker 4: production models aren't going to really like him. But I
Speaker 4: gave good Garrett Wilson and Elik Neighbors pretty similar marks
Speaker 4: coming out of school. But by the end of Garrettilson's
Speaker 4: rookie season, I was like, shoot, that's the best That's
Speaker 4: the best player of the three because he can beat
Speaker 4: press coverage. And I think that's the key with these
Speaker 4: guys is can you put them in the right position
Speaker 4: to kind of help them grow a little bit, because
Speaker 4: like people, we don't remember this because the offense really
Speaker 4: the last year and a half has just been Garrett
Speaker 4: Wilson's our outside receiver, and like we just they finally
Speaker 4: drilled it into Zach Wilson's brain. Throw to that guy,
Speaker 4: like no matter what, this situation whatever, Like he's your
Speaker 4: first rate. If your eyes come off of him, you're
Speaker 4: gonna be in trouble. Which is a condemnation of both
Speaker 4: Zach Wilson, the coaching staff, and the surrounding players.
Speaker 1: Beyond Garret Wilson that roster.
Speaker 4: But Wilson was playing a lot in the slot early
Speaker 4: on in his first little like showing with the Jets
Speaker 4: there in the first half the season, and I think
Speaker 4: that he's told me like that actually helped him get
Speaker 4: really comfortable to the NFL game. So I think as
Speaker 4: long as you work with these players, it's pretty hard
Speaker 4: for them to bust there. But you're right, though, once
Speaker 4: we get past that Tier one there's a lot of
Speaker 4: players that I've put there, you know. And some of
Speaker 4: these guys are They've had injuries like Rashad Bateman, They've
Speaker 4: had a weird career path like a shoot Jamison Williams
Speaker 4: probably had some of the weirdest start to a career
Speaker 4: for any prospect the last four years, wide receiver or otherwise,
Speaker 4: you know. But I like Elijah mor As a clear
Speaker 4: first round pick. He has developed into an okay, but
Speaker 4: not a difference making player. So the bust factor certainly
Speaker 4: goes up the farther you get down the board. But
Speaker 4: in my personal opinion, these guys that are Tier one,
Speaker 4: top ten receiver picks, like I do, think the floor
Speaker 4: is very high for those place. Maybe Chargers fans listening
Speaker 4: to this and like Drake London, Like, I mean, that's
Speaker 4: not that exciting if he becomes Drake London. But I
Speaker 4: think Drake Lundon has been a good player.
Speaker 1: Who was thrown on the ball. Yeah, it's been the
Speaker 1: very victim of circumstance.
Speaker 4: You're obviously not going to have that happen here in
Speaker 4: La with Jo with Justin Herbert there.
Speaker 2: So, Matt last April, we knew this was coming. We
Speaker 2: knew the cap numbers of Mike Williamson, Keenan Allen, and
Speaker 2: the Chargers selected Quinton Johnston in the twenties, and you know,
Speaker 2: the hope was to enter twenty twenty four with him
Speaker 2: being a wide receiver one or two type player. It
Speaker 2: hasn't necessarily gotten to that point yet. And you know
Speaker 2: he had a great training camp and struggled a little
Speaker 2: bit throughout the season. What did you see from Quinton
Speaker 2: coming out of TCU and what did you see last year?
Speaker 2: And this is kind of like a three part question.
Speaker 2: What can be different in year two with a new
Speaker 2: coaching staff and just kind of learning from his rookie season.
Speaker 4: So I'll answer the second question first here, which is
Speaker 4: not a lot of good stuff from his rookie season.
Speaker 4: You know, I do a mid season rookie report for
Speaker 4: all of the rookies on reception Perception dot com us.
Speaker 4: He comes out about early November, where I'm charting these
Speaker 4: guys again from a route running perspective for people who
Speaker 4: aren't familiar with perception perception. This is isolated from quarterback plays,
Speaker 4: So I'm just looking at the wide receivers and whether
Speaker 4: they're getting opened against press, man's zone coverage across the
Speaker 4: route tree, et cetera. And Quentin Johnson. In terms of
Speaker 4: that mid season sample, his success rates against man and
Speaker 4: press and zone, they're down there among like some of
Speaker 4: the worst players sampled in reception perception history. We're talking
Speaker 4: about like justin Hunter twenty fourteen, we're talking about, you know,
Speaker 4: Devin Functius, like DeVante.
Speaker 3: Park talking first rounders. We're talking like undrafted free agent level.
Speaker 4: No, actually we're just talking about honestly, we're talking about
Speaker 4: like first round busts like Jalen Rager. We're talking about
Speaker 4: you know Marquise Lee, right, you know these guys. Davante
Speaker 4: Parker I mentioned, is a guy who scored that way
Speaker 4: early in his career, and he had that like kind
Speaker 4: of I think even at his peak, DeVante Parker is
Speaker 4: secretly my buddy James Co's favorite player in the NFL.
Speaker 1: But I like guys those are my Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4: He co owns a site based on receiver separation and
Speaker 4: he likes the guy who can't separate.
Speaker 2: So but anyway, shout out to James and DeVante Parker exactly.
Speaker 4: But anyway, so that's kind of the bucket of players
Speaker 4: that Quentin Johnson was was scoring in which, you know,
Speaker 4: not all of those guys, like I mentioned Parker, He's
Speaker 4: probably like an average starting ex receiver as best. Davante
Speaker 4: Adams famously is a guy that went from when early
Speaker 4: on in his career he was like a bottom five
Speaker 4: all time scorer in reception perception to literally like the
Speaker 4: ninety ninth percentile. You know, whenever you see a guy
Speaker 4: have a poor rookie season or whatever, people always say, well,
Speaker 4: maybe he's an next DeVante Adams. Well, so far, in
Speaker 4: my charting sense twenty fourteen, there had never been another
Speaker 4: Devonte Adams. It's just been one, and I'm not betting
Speaker 4: on that historical outlife. So that in his rookie season
Speaker 4: is where Quinton Johnson is tracking but let's flip it
Speaker 4: back to the first question there, which is his prospect profile.
Speaker 4: To me, you look at his reception perception prospect profile,
Speaker 4: you see a guy that can win on sort of
Speaker 4: what we talk about with Brian Thomas, like a small
Speaker 4: handful of routes. Like I think Brian Thomas is the
Speaker 4: kind of the actualized version of what of what people
Speaker 4: wanted Quinton Johnson to be last year. He's kind of
Speaker 4: a better performer there. But like he can win on
Speaker 4: slant routes, he can win on go routes and some
Speaker 4: of these kind of like post routes as well. But
Speaker 4: his work against press coverage was not good from a
Speaker 4: prospect standpoint, his work as a just pure outside receiver
Speaker 4: was not going to be great. This was clearly a
Speaker 4: guy I haven't even talked about his contested catch rate
Speaker 4: and like struggles tracking the ball down the field. This
Speaker 4: is the guy that you would easily watch and say, Okay,
Speaker 4: we need to put him off the ball, we need
Speaker 4: to put him in motion. What we can't do is
Speaker 4: just say, oh, big fast guy, let's put him at
Speaker 4: X receiver and have him run vertical routes against pressman coverage. Unfortunately,
Speaker 4: most of his rookie season was spent playing X receiver,
Speaker 4: running vertical routes against pressman coverage. Like I think that
Speaker 4: was a disservice to him as a player. Which Look,
Speaker 4: the Chargers had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and you know,
Speaker 4: they had Josh Palmer, who I think was always going
Speaker 4: to kind of be that third receiver last year or
Speaker 4: an ideal world if nobody got injured. The problem is,
Speaker 4: like guys get injured, especially those guys had had issues,
Speaker 4: especially Mike Williams and Keenan Allen had had injury issues,
Speaker 4: So it was kind of a risky bet, especially you know,
Speaker 4: if we're talking about like a coaching staff that was,
Speaker 4: you know, kind of on the ropes a little bit
Speaker 4: obviously eventually lost their job. I don't know if you
Speaker 4: want to take a peer developmental player kind of like
Speaker 4: this in the first round, but they did, and that's
Speaker 4: really what ended up happening. So to me, I think
Speaker 4: he was set up to fail in this role in
Speaker 4: his rookie season. But I don't think there's completely no
Speaker 4: chance that he develops into a contributing wide receiver in
Speaker 4: this room. Like, but it's gonna have to come with
Speaker 4: somebody else playing that X receiver position, which to me
Speaker 4: is why a part of why I thought Marvin Harrison
Speaker 4: here makes so much sense is just because you could
Speaker 4: throw him in an X and like, all right, now
Speaker 4: we play Quinton off the ball. We want to get
Speaker 4: him on these crossing routes so he can make plays
Speaker 4: in splay in space like he did in college. So obviously,
Speaker 4: like I said, from a historic success rate standpoint, he's
Speaker 4: in a not ideal group. But there have been players
Speaker 4: like I bring up that Devonte Parker example, who ended
Speaker 4: up having like a career role even if their rookie
Speaker 4: seasons got off to a rough start. That's kind of
Speaker 4: where I'd put Quinton Johnson right now and sort of
Speaker 4: what I think could become of his career.
Speaker 2: Buddy, I was just gonna say, fit, fit is so
Speaker 2: important and in getting him in the rights positions to
Speaker 2: be successful, and that's what the hope is with this
Speaker 2: new coaching stuff.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, that's the thing I think. You know, it
Speaker 3: doesn't it doesn't benefit anyone to say, what were they
Speaker 3: thinking we should have taken say Flowers or Jordan Nadison.
Speaker 3: Why would you you know, that's he's on the Chargers.
Speaker 3: He's on the Chargers for another three years, hopefully four years,
Speaker 3: because he plays good enough that they pick up his
Speaker 3: fifty year option, and even that's a discount. But in
Speaker 3: Matt that kind of goes back to the question about
Speaker 3: taking the X. So he doesn't have to be the X,
Speaker 3: so we can be the D. Or he's a gigantic slot,
Speaker 3: you know, which look game in sixth basically you know,
Speaker 3: not quite that big, but still a tall slot.
Speaker 1: So let's say they do trade down.
Speaker 3: Let's say they trade to Minnesota and they get eleven
Speaker 3: and they get twenty three, and now they've taken their
Speaker 3: corner D tackle or O tackle at eleven and at
Speaker 3: twenty three, same deal, you know, taking the other O
Speaker 3: tackle you know, maybe D N corner, whatever it may be.
Speaker 3: And now they're staring at wide receiver, you know, at
Speaker 3: thirty seven. Give us an idea, because let's just I
Speaker 3: want to keep playing this thing out. It's not Lad macconky,
Speaker 3: it's an X. Is there an X that you think
Speaker 3: has graded out that could end up, you know, being
Speaker 3: a starter day one at pick thirty seven because of
Speaker 3: how deep this class is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is what's funny about this position and kind
Speaker 4: of like the Chargers fans being, you know, like I said,
Speaker 4: rightfully obsessed with taking a receiver at five because these
Speaker 4: guys are so good. But this this position is deep
Speaker 4: this year, and I'm telling you it's been deep the
Speaker 4: last four years, and it's probably gonna be deep the
Speaker 4: next four years, you know, because there's just so many
Speaker 4: quality receivers and if you want to get a good
Speaker 4: room together around justin Herbert like, you can absolutely potentially
Speaker 4: double tap this position where hey, maybe we don't have
Speaker 4: an X available at thirty seven because kind of answer
Speaker 4: your question there, I think Ady Mitchell is gonna be
Speaker 4: off the board in the late first round. I don't
Speaker 4: think he's gonna be there. And then I'm starting to
Speaker 4: kind of like, I don't know that there's another X
Speaker 4: that i'd like to take there. Because Troy Franklin played
Speaker 4: X receiver at Oregon, He's probably the next guy that
Speaker 4: might be available in that thirty seven range. But man,
Speaker 4: he is rail finn, and I think we're going to
Speaker 4: run into similar problems where he played X in college.
Speaker 4: Let's throw him out there in the NFL. I just
Speaker 4: don't know that that's gonna work. I think he's got
Speaker 4: the technical nuance that you want to see from a
Speaker 4: route running perspective, and normally guys like anyway that's followed
Speaker 4: reception perception knows. I'm actually like kind of size agnostic.
Speaker 4: I don't normally harp on receiver size over and over again.
Speaker 4: But we've got two guys in this class with Troy
Speaker 4: Franklin and Xavier Worthy, where the size shows up in
Speaker 4: so many of their reception perception marks. You know, people
Speaker 4: want to be like, oh uh, what about Tank Dell
Speaker 4: last year? Well, Tank Dell had a eighty third percentile
Speaker 4: success rate versus press at that size in college. These
Speaker 4: guys don't have that. So with Troy Franklin, I think
Speaker 4: he'd be kind of the other vertical option that you
Speaker 4: might consider in that spot. But I don't know that
Speaker 4: he can be an X receiver. So again, sort of
Speaker 4: kind of playing this exercise out a little. Maybe we
Speaker 4: just say, hey, thirty seven the best receiver on the board.
Speaker 4: We don't really care like what his position is. We
Speaker 4: just take him, even if it isn't a guy that's
Speaker 4: going to play X. But then maybe you come back
Speaker 4: in the third round or at a different pick and
Speaker 4: then maybe you're looking at the like Javon Baker types.
Speaker 4: I think Baker's a guy who profiles similarly coming out
Speaker 4: of school to Michael galla Up, a guy that at
Speaker 4: Colorado State who showed he could play X and for
Speaker 4: the Dallas Cowboys before he tore his ACL was kind
Speaker 4: of quietly really solid X receiver that I always kind
Speaker 4: of liked ahead of consensus, so that that would be
Speaker 4: sort of where we're going later on the draft. But
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be in a bit of a
Speaker 4: tough spot if you're looking for a pure X receiver
Speaker 4: at thirty seventh overall, because I think Brian Thomas is
Speaker 4: gonna be gone and I think Adie Mitchell is definitely
Speaker 4: gonna be gone in the first round.
Speaker 2: Now, what about speed? We know about Xavier Worthy, but
Speaker 2: this team, as you mentioned, they've been lacking that speed
Speaker 2: receiver that you feel like would be a perfect match
Speaker 2: for Justin Herbert in his arm and keep defenses. Honest,
Speaker 2: if you had to identify some some receivers with some wheels,
Speaker 2: maybe in third round later, who would those guys be.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll give you a couple of names here. One
Speaker 4: that I think is like you would have minus odds
Speaker 4: to be a charger, and then one who I think
Speaker 4: has like no shot to be a charger, we'll go.
Speaker 4: We'll go with no shot first, and that's Jermaine Burton
Speaker 4: out of Alabama, who has some pretty serious character concerns.
Speaker 4: I don't know if the Chargers are gonna be kind
Speaker 4: of willing to do that, but man.
Speaker 1: Yeah he'll be.
Speaker 4: I may or may not have been talking with somebody
Speaker 4: on Friday who basically said, yeah, book a third round.
Speaker 4: He'll be a chief, he'll be a pro pro bowler.
Speaker 4: So yeah, get used to that. But I say that
Speaker 4: to say, like the film on him is wild, and
Speaker 4: like from a speed perspective is incredible. I think he
Speaker 4: separates at all three levels. Like I can imagine Justin
Speaker 4: Herbert flinging bombs to Jermaine Burton down the field, who
Speaker 4: just demolishes man coverage and takes over games with that speed,
Speaker 4: takes over the opposition with that speed, very similar to
Speaker 4: like Carson Palmer and John Brown in his career. I
Speaker 4: think I think there's like John Brown sort of comps
Speaker 4: with Jermaine Burton, but he's a bigger player than John
Speaker 4: Brown was, And like the long, Chris, I'm sure knows
Speaker 4: this doing my podcast back in the day at the
Speaker 4: at the NFL how much I loved John Brown back
Speaker 4: in the day.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Judge, So that's high praise for me.
Speaker 4: So the guy I think is much more likely maybe
Speaker 4: minus odds to be a charger is obviously Roman Wilson
Speaker 4: from Michigan, who I do not think has the skill
Speaker 4: set to be a high volume player in the NFL.
Speaker 4: But he's one of these players where you look at
Speaker 4: his overall profile and there's a lot of questions, but
Speaker 4: then you kind of parse things out a little bit
Speaker 4: and these specific routes that he's good on, these big
Speaker 4: over routes, I can see him getting a lot of those,
Speaker 4: like shot plays, big over routes on play action in particular.
Speaker 4: So if they want to run the ball and they
Speaker 4: want to use somebody from a speed perspective, I think
Speaker 4: he does fit in that regard.
Speaker 3: Speaking of Wilson, one of the things that jumped out
Speaker 3: at me, Matt and I'd love to know at reception
Speaker 3: perception if if you, I'm sure you do, but how
Speaker 3: you great it like that dude snatches the ball better
Speaker 3: than anyone, Like when he's running, he does not gather.
Speaker 3: Those hands are there and it's just you know, he
Speaker 3: really snatches the ball. And that was something that that
Speaker 3: jumped out with with Quinton is that body catcher would gather.
Speaker 3: We're dog friendly, don't worry about it, would gather and
Speaker 3: and you know, you see the bobbles and the drops
Speaker 3: and like where do how do you value that and
Speaker 3: how much are you looking at? How does he catch
Speaker 3: the ball? Does he break stride? Is he catching it
Speaker 3: out in front of him? And obviously a lot of
Speaker 3: that's quarterback dependent, so you know kind of where you
Speaker 3: at with that sort of that that particular skill set.
Speaker 4: I think it's something that's more important now than it's
Speaker 4: ever been, and it's always been something that's important to me.
Speaker 4: Guys that can I am obsessed with guys that can
Speaker 4: transition from route runners to catchers two yards after catch
Speaker 4: threats immediately and seamlessly. I do think Malik Neighbors does
Speaker 4: that really well. Obviously at the top of the draft.
Speaker 4: But yeah, man, we just talked about Troy Franklin, right,
Speaker 4: He's a guy that I think really struggles with that.
Speaker 4: I don't think he to me, it's it's a lot
Speaker 4: of it comes down to confidence and like trust in
Speaker 4: your your route running, trust in in in confidence really
Speaker 4: like confidence in your hands and confidence to just take
Speaker 4: hits over the middle. You look at Troy Franklin's like
Speaker 4: success right by route chart, the dig route and the
Speaker 4: slant router has two of his worst routes, and I
Speaker 4: don't think it's.
Speaker 1: A technique issue. I just think it's a confidence issue.
Speaker 1: He's looking, he's looking.
Speaker 4: And because he knows if I get hit, I might
Speaker 4: drop the ball. And I already dropped the ball enough.
Speaker 4: Had a conversation with Pukinakua at the Super Bowl Media
Speaker 4: Week where he talked about that was really the thing
Speaker 4: that got Matthew Stafford's attention immediately. And number one, you
Speaker 4: can actually I think the the post draft clip that
Speaker 4: the Rams put out of Sean McVay talking about why
Speaker 4: they while they drafted him was just the confidence through
Speaker 4: the catch point and like he's just he was explaining
Speaker 4: basically on these like dig cut routes and off dagger
Speaker 4: concepts where he would just get the ball and always
Speaker 4: like be right in the right position in transition to
Speaker 4: immediately to a yak threat. That is something that I
Speaker 4: think is super valuable in all receivers in today's NFL,
Speaker 4: especially because we're so inbreaking route heavy, we're so play
Speaker 4: action heavy, or we're really trying to get these crossing
Speaker 4: routes and these dig routes are that you want to
Speaker 4: win the battle of the middle of the field. I mean,
Speaker 4: how many times did we talk about in the playoffs,
Speaker 4: guys where like, all right, Detroit Lion, San Francisco forty
Speaker 4: nine ers, who's going to win this games? Whoever wins
Speaker 4: the middle of the field, whoever whichever offense is able
Speaker 4: to control that middle of the field. So if you're
Speaker 4: going to do that, you need to have guys that
Speaker 4: are confidence in their hands and can have an ability
Speaker 4: to transition from route runners to catchers very cleanly.
Speaker 3: I don't know if you're just being polite, but do
Speaker 3: you not see that with Roman Wilson? Did that not
Speaker 3: jump out at you in terms of how he catches
Speaker 3: the ball?
Speaker 4: No, I think he's got great hands. I do think
Speaker 4: he has really good hands. I just I struggle a
Speaker 4: little bit. This is like the one area where I
Speaker 4: actually like Roman Wilson as a player a lot is
Speaker 4: on this specific instance that we're talking about, and on
Speaker 4: these inbreaking routes. I think that's a but my question
Speaker 4: is what's beyond that, right, which is why I can
Speaker 4: envision him being like a guy that you throw the
Speaker 4: ball to maybe five times per game, which, hey, the
Speaker 4: Chargers could use someone else to throw the ball five
Speaker 4: times to per game. I just think, like when I'm
Speaker 4: grading prospects overall, he's gonna end up being a little
Speaker 4: lower than some of these guys that I can see
Speaker 4: developing into being like one hundred and twenty type target players,
Speaker 4: which there are.
Speaker 1: A lot of guys in this class.
Speaker 4: I don't think Ruman Wilson necessarily is one of them,
Speaker 4: but there's a lot of guys that I do think
Speaker 4: have this skill set. He's not the first one that
Speaker 4: jumps to mind, but he's definitely in the category.
Speaker 2: Matt, you mentioned Pookinakua. It's a it's a great segue.
Speaker 2: Who is this year's Pookin Nakula? Who's the receiver that
Speaker 2: we're not talking about.
Speaker 3: Baking a rookie record from the fifth round exactly?
Speaker 2: But but who's the guy who we're not even talking
Speaker 2: about that if he gets put in and it's all
Speaker 2: about too, it's about fit, it's about this right situation.
Speaker 2: But yeah, who could come in rookie year and not
Speaker 2: come out of nowhere but like make a really big
Speaker 2: impact his rookie season.
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's not talk about like guys that are going
Speaker 4: to be I think in consideration in like round two.
Speaker 4: By the way, just to follow back on the other point,
Speaker 4: I do think Xavier Leget is a little underrated on
Speaker 4: like the what we were just what we were just
Speaker 4: talking about money that specific expect the rest of his game.
Speaker 1: I got quite.
Speaker 3: Overrated, right, Like people are freaking out over him and
Speaker 3: he looks like he's a little look. I love the physicality,
Speaker 3: but I just feel like we get this guy every year, right,
Speaker 3: Like every year people get enamored with size and he's fast,
Speaker 3: and it's like, yeah, but can he run?
Speaker 1: He actually can he run routes?
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's a developmental player at twenty three years old
Speaker 4: and his fifth year in college and like there you go.
Speaker 4: Is he just out there out athleting people? I mean, yeah,
Speaker 4: is he gonna do that in the NFL?
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 4: So he's a guy that we're deployment really matters, like
Speaker 4: my reception, perception data, my data tracked. She would show
Speaker 4: you the guys that score below the thirty fifth percentile
Speaker 4: against man and press coverage like that, which, by the way,
Speaker 4: he does and Keon Coleman does. Although Keon Coleman and
Speaker 4: they really got to are pretty good zone beaters. These
Speaker 4: guys all have to transition to slot like they have
Speaker 4: to and otherwise they're like the list of in the
Speaker 4: prospects I've charted. It's like a bunch of career flameouts
Speaker 4: and then guys who have made transition the big slot
Speaker 4: receiver position. But I do think both those guys show
Speaker 4: that ability that we were talking about where they can
Speaker 4: have confidence with their hands and move immediately to yeah threat,
Speaker 4: So I just wanted to bring them up in that
Speaker 4: regard to that's But yeah, with with Leget especially, I'm.
Speaker 1: Like, man, this is a big projection, but he's fun
Speaker 1: to watch.
Speaker 4: But on your question Chris about like a guy who
Speaker 4: might come out of nowhere, Yeah, I don't want to
Speaker 4: say this guy is gonna be like the next Puka
Speaker 4: Nakua and like, yeah, just break a rookie record whatever.
Speaker 4: But of course I do think Malik Washington is a
Speaker 4: really good player at a University of Virginia. It's kind
Speaker 4: of close to here Charlottesville, where I currently live now,
Speaker 4: so you know, no bias there. I mean did if
Speaker 4: you think I was watching UVA football on Saturdays, I
Speaker 4: was not. But he did break a school He did
Speaker 4: break two school records this year after transitioning or transferring
Speaker 4: from Northwestern, and basically when he got there, the coaching
Speaker 4: staff was just like, We're gonna build the whole offense
Speaker 4: out of you, which is really crazy considering he was
Speaker 4: like a somewhat productive player in Northwestern but really took
Speaker 4: to that role. A guy that can play out of
Speaker 4: the slot, great hands. I like his route running, I
Speaker 4: like his field for space. So he's a guy that
Speaker 4: I do think could be like a Day three type
Speaker 4: of surprise. Maybe he ends up going to the third round,
Speaker 4: honestly because he was so productive and people are always
Speaker 4: looking for that type of slot receiver. He's somebody that
Speaker 4: I think won't get a lot of buzz, isn't getting
Speaker 4: a lot of buzz, but high character, Hi the work
Speaker 4: ethic player, a guy that is going to, like I said,
Speaker 4: catch everything. So I like him better than your typical
Speaker 4: what I always call like the bunny hop slot receiver
Speaker 4: arch type. You know, like Wanda Robinson went the dang
Speaker 4: second round a couple of years ago, and I like
Speaker 4: moll League Washington a lot better.
Speaker 3: Last thing for me, Matt, and we appreciate it. Again,
Speaker 3: it's reception perception dot com, get over there, follow him
Speaker 3: out on all the social channels, watch the pods with
Speaker 3: James co. They're great. This is a wide receiver draft.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are going to draft a or a few
Speaker 3: wide receivers, so you might as well brush up and
Speaker 3: plagiarize all of his work and make it look like
Speaker 3: you're the smartest person exactly. So I'm gonna finish with
Speaker 3: what could be a negative or it could be a
Speaker 3: positive for our friend, our new general manager, Joe Ortiz,
Speaker 3: and just kind of where because I know you continue
Speaker 3: to track pros. It's not just rookies, and this is
Speaker 3: for the draft. This is you know, your your reads
Speaker 3: on wide receivers of the NFL, your thoughts on you know,
Speaker 3: moving Keenan Allen for a fourth because he wouldn't take
Speaker 3: a pay cut from twenty three million bucks and where
Speaker 3: you've seen his game go and Mike Williams, you know,
Speaker 3: for fifteen million bucks and watching him walk out the
Speaker 3: door and kind of what you had seen from those two.
Speaker 3: I think Mike's different because of the injuries, but just
Speaker 3: specifically Keenan and all the people that were, you know,
Speaker 3: belly aching about how you're only going to get you know,
Speaker 3: a fourth rounder for this guy, and why would you
Speaker 3: move him in the first place, all that sort of
Speaker 3: stuff that kind of came out of that move.
Speaker 4: Mike Williams is hard because of the injury. I will
Speaker 4: say I think Mike Williams at his peak was a
Speaker 4: better separator than given credit for. Like people think all
Speaker 4: he does is just win jump balls, to the point that,
Speaker 4: like I he's not on in my holy trinity of
Speaker 4: like cops you can't use during draft season, which right
Speaker 4: now is Deshaun Jackson, Stavante Smith and it's it's Deebo Samuel,
Speaker 4: like you use that draft company Like Nope, probably not.
Speaker 4: Those are like one on one players. Mike Williams isn't
Speaker 4: quite that guy. But anytime you're like, oh, well he
Speaker 4: can't get separation, he'll just be Mike Williams.
Speaker 1: I don't know about that.
Speaker 4: Also, you know there's been some volatility there at times
Speaker 4: with that outside receiver position for the Chargers, but specifically
Speaker 4: with Keenan Allen. I say this a lot. The one
Speaker 4: thing I am least confident in projecting with reception perception
Speaker 4: is the age cliff. There are times where it's obvious.
Speaker 4: A great example of that is twenty seventeen Des Bryant.
Speaker 4: You look at his reception perception results throughout his career,
Speaker 4: and then you look at that twenty seventeen season, we
Speaker 4: go from a lot of green to a lot of red.
Speaker 4: It's just like screamingly obvious, like, oh man, this guy
Speaker 4: has fallen off a cliff. You'll lo and behold that
Speaker 4: Cowboys release him. He doesn't sign with the Saints until
Speaker 4: November of twenty eighteen, despite our former employer NFL Network
Speaker 4: giving like round the clock coverage to where says, Brian
Speaker 4: kind of sign in March. Maybe should ask me anyways,
Speaker 4: But sometimes it's obvious. I'd agree things turned out well,
Speaker 4: but anyways, So sometimes it's obvious like that. Other times
Speaker 4: there are guys that sort of have this like steady
Speaker 4: sort of decline and then the cliff is not obvious.
Speaker 4: And you know, I think Keenan Allen is in that
Speaker 4: he's in a decline. Like to me, he can say
Speaker 4: he had his best season in twenty twenty three, and
Speaker 4: statistically he did. I think the film would disagree. I
Speaker 4: think reception perception would disagree, which, by the way, is
Speaker 4: no shame to Keenan Allen. He thirty one years old,
Speaker 4: thirty two years old. Like yo, we all get old, man,
Speaker 4: we all decline a little bit. And he's he is
Speaker 4: within every bit of his right to say, Nope, I'm
Speaker 4: not taking a pay cut because somebody will pay me this.
Speaker 4: You guys know this as big media bros. You're worth
Speaker 4: what somebody will pay you. And if somebody will pay
Speaker 4: Keenan Allen that money, like, he's again within his right
Speaker 4: to say, I can go get that money elsewhere, I'm
Speaker 4: cool with. That's tough because I am a sentimental man
Speaker 4: that loves to see one player play with one team
Speaker 4: for the course of his career.
Speaker 1: But it's a business. Again.
Speaker 4: I think if you're the Chargers, especially a new coaching staff,
Speaker 4: looking at this without that much sentimentality, you can see
Speaker 4: that he has taken a step back. And again we're
Speaker 4: talking about a player that was consistently over the ninety
Speaker 4: six percentile against press and man coverage throughout the course
Speaker 4: of his career, and then the last few seasons there
Speaker 4: has been a slight dip. Now that does not mean
Speaker 4: he is about to fall off a cliff, because I
Speaker 4: think Keenan Allen has shown you the last three years
Speaker 4: that when he's on the field he's still really good
Speaker 4: on the short and intermediate routes, especially around the line
Speaker 4: of scrimmage. I mean, I'm not the only one that
Speaker 4: said this, I know plenty of people said this, but
Speaker 4: he might be one of the most quarterback friendly receivers
Speaker 4: you can go out and get for a future number
Speaker 4: one pick if you're Caleb Williams in the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 4: So I like the move. From their standpoint, I do
Speaker 4: understand the Chargers looking at this and saying, yeah, stat's aside. Look,
Speaker 4: you guys are following the Chargers fans are, obviously, And
Speaker 4: what have we all been saying about the Chargers offense
Speaker 4: the last year is like, we can't throw the ball downfield,
Speaker 4: We can't throw the ball downfield. Well, your number one
Speaker 4: receiver is a guy who doesn't went on downfield routes anymore,
Speaker 4: and then there's a huge cataclysmic drop off to everybody
Speaker 4: else on the roster. The Bears will not have that
Speaker 4: problem because they have DJ Moore like they can, I think,
Speaker 4: actually get the best out of Keenan Allen going forward
Speaker 4: more so than the Chargers can, honestly. So I think
Speaker 4: it's just everything kind of comes to it a head
Speaker 4: here where he's a player that's in a slight decline
Speaker 4: but isn't quite like Alan Robinson I talked about earlier
Speaker 4: as a Roma Dunesday comparison. He was another guy and
Speaker 4: why the age cliffs are tough that had a similar
Speaker 4: sort of drop off in his last couple of years
Speaker 4: with the Bears, where from a success rate versus man
Speaker 4: coverage standpoint, he's gone from that ninety six percentile to
Speaker 4: maybe eighty fifth, then down to seventy fifth. Like again,
Speaker 4: still quality scores, but there's that little, just slight tick down,
Speaker 4: and then you see him in his first year with
Speaker 4: the Rams, You're like, oh, oh, it's over. It's over. Yep,
Speaker 4: hell of a time for all of us, but it
Speaker 4: is over. And that's sort of the tough part with
Speaker 4: receiver age cliff. So yeah, there's a chance that Keenan
Speaker 4: Allen goes out there in twenty twenty four with the
Speaker 4: Chicago Bears and like looks exactly like he did with
Speaker 4: the Chargers last year, which is not his peak play
Speaker 4: of course because he's thirty two years old. Just the
Speaker 4: reality of the situation, he's not his peak level play,
Speaker 4: but he's still a very, very good, high quality starting
Speaker 4: slot receiver. There is also the chance that he goes
Speaker 4: out there and he looks like twenty twenty two Allan
Speaker 4: Robinson with the rams and just that unknown combined with
Speaker 4: the price tag, I think is where the Chargers review
Speaker 4: of the situation.
Speaker 2: Matt, my final thing ninety seconds, I'm going to make
Speaker 2: you the general manager of the Chargers, and you have
Speaker 2: to build out the rest of this wide receiver room,
Speaker 2: whether it's the draft, free agency. What are you doing
Speaker 2: at five? How would you build it out here? As
Speaker 2: we get you out here?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think that.
Speaker 4: I if it's me, if I'm the gneral manager of
Speaker 4: the Chargers, I understand that we want to build through
Speaker 4: the trenches.
Speaker 1: But this is a unique opportunity.
Speaker 4: In my personal opinion, with all my wide receiver bias admitted,
Speaker 4: I think this is a unique opportunity to take a
Speaker 4: top tier prospect at fifth overall and pair him with
Speaker 4: Justin Herbert for the next decade plus and never think
Speaker 4: twice about the number one receiver position. If Marvin Harrison's there,
Speaker 4: I would take him. If Harrison's off the board and
Speaker 4: Roma Dunsay and Elik Neighbors are there, I would take
Speaker 4: Roma Dunza because I think that's just the type of
Speaker 4: value I have on a Dounsay as a player. And
Speaker 4: you know, then I think we slot Quentin Johnson in
Speaker 4: at flanker and we just try to see if that
Speaker 4: can work. But I don't want to necessarily count on him.
Speaker 4: I think Josh Palmer can play a little bit of slot.
Speaker 4: I think he can play like as a big slot receiver.
Speaker 4: I think he could play flanker as well. But I'd
Speaker 4: like to add one more body as well. Whether that
Speaker 4: comes on it probably day three of the draft. I
Speaker 4: don't see a free agent receiver out there that I
Speaker 4: want to bring into this room, and like, really, I
Speaker 4: don't know that there's necessarily a high quality tributor out there.
Speaker 4: I'd take another shot in the draft at it. I'd
Speaker 4: take them Elik Washington, I would take a Jalen Polk,
Speaker 4: although Pete Traeger put him in the first round of
Speaker 4: his mock today.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if you.
Speaker 4: Actually it was pretty crazy, yeah, but I mean, shoot,
Speaker 4: we go all Huskies here in the wide receiver room.
Speaker 4: But I would take Roma June's Aaron Marvin Harrison at
Speaker 4: fifth overall and figure out the rest of it later
Speaker 4: because I think it's a unique.
Speaker 3: Opportunity, right and free agents. DeVante Parker's off the market,
Speaker 3: so you can't go out.
Speaker 1: He's he's gonna he's up there with the Eagles.
Speaker 2: You know, can't get him by James going at Eagles
Speaker 2: Parker Jersey.
Speaker 3: Exactly right, exactly right. Be sure to watch James, watch Matt.
Speaker 1: They do the pod.
Speaker 3: They'll be doing a live stream for Yahoo during the draft.
Speaker 3: Check that out and obviously subscribe to reception perception. It's
Speaker 3: it's great stuff, Matt. We appreciate it. Mayor Brothers el
Speaker 3: Comino run forever. I'll leave you with that.
Speaker 1: Appreciate you, buddy. Thank you guys for having me. It
Speaker 1: was awesome. Thank you that you're the best.
Speaker 2: We We recorded this a little bit early because our
Speaker 2: boys going to Hawaii. So if there is a if
Speaker 2: there's a major trade that happens in the next twenty
Speaker 2: four to forty eight.
Speaker 3: Hours and we didn't talk about it an emergency with
Speaker 3: an absolutely if there's a major trade, then then I
Speaker 3: will do it.
Speaker 1: I will do it my tie in hand.
Speaker 3: The shapes of Waikiki absolutely beautiful, all right.
Speaker 2: For the Mats, Matt Harmon and Matt Muddy Smith, I'm
Speaker 2: Chris Hayrey. This has been Chargers Week.