Speaker 1: M. This is Mesters in Business with very Results on
Speaker 1: Blueberg Radio. This week on the podcast strap Yourself In,
Speaker 1: I have an extra extra special guest, Robert Hormat's former
Speaker 1: vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. God. His his resume is
Speaker 1: just astonishing, from the Knicks administration to the Reagan administration
Speaker 1: to the Obama administration, back and forth into private sector
Speaker 1: to public service. Really just just a legendary guy. The
Speaker 1: French awarded him the Legion of Honor Medal in ninety two. Uh.
Speaker 1: He's currently managing director at Tinaman Advisors, who essentially work
Speaker 1: with a lot of ultra high net worth family offices
Speaker 1: and some institutions and endowments. Uh. You probably know him
Speaker 1: best from his many years as vice chairman and at
Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs. What can I say, a legendary career, really
Speaker 1: insightful about the state of the world today. We talk
Speaker 1: about everything from the infrastructure build out in China, to
Speaker 1: what the US needs to do to catch up and
Speaker 1: stay economically competitive, to what's going on in technology and
Speaker 1: crypto when just really his perspective is is unique and
Speaker 1: I think he he has a lot of insights not
Speaker 1: only about investing, but about how to manage your own career,
Speaker 1: how to build a collaborative enterprise, how to make sure
Speaker 1: that you stay in touch with people even when they
Speaker 1: have nothing to offer you other than collegiality and friendship.
Speaker 1: And you know, uh, he is very much a thoughtful
Speaker 1: diplomat and has just put together an amazing track record.
Speaker 1: Let me stop babbling and just say, with no further ado,
Speaker 1: my conversation with Bob Hormats. This is Mesters in Business
Speaker 1: with very renaults on Bloomberg Radio. This week I have
Speaker 1: an extra special guest. His name is Robert Hormats, and
Speaker 1: what a story career he has had. You probably are
Speaker 1: most familiar with him as his role as vice chairman
Speaker 1: of Goldman Sachs. Currently he is a managing director at
Speaker 1: Taman Advisors. He has had a long and quite storied
Speaker 1: career in both government and finance. Uh he was the
Speaker 1: Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs
Speaker 1: as well as part of the National Security Council from
Speaker 1: seventy four to seventy seven, Deputy Trade Representative from seventy
Speaker 1: seven at seventy nine, Assistant Secretary of State under Ronald Reagan.
Speaker 1: UH he was one of the people who not only
Speaker 1: was an economic advisor to people like Henry Kissinger, General
Speaker 1: Brent Scotkraft a big knee Brazinski, but he helped manage
Speaker 1: the Nixon administration's opening of diplomatic relations with China's communist government.
Speaker 1: He was a recipient of the French Legion of Honor
Speaker 1: award in nineteen eighty two. He was Under Secretary of
Speaker 1: State for Economic Growth in the Obama administration. I have
Speaker 1: to stop there because it could just keep going on
Speaker 1: and on. Bob Hormatt's welcome to Bloomberg. Well, thank you
Speaker 1: for having me on, Barry. I really enjoy your show,
Speaker 1: and I'm really honored to be a participant in it. Well, well,
Speaker 1: it's my honor to have you here. It's my pleasure.
Speaker 1: And one of the first things I noticed about your
Speaker 1: career that's so fascinating. You were in your like mid
Speaker 1: twenties and you're serving as a senior staff member for
Speaker 1: International Economic Affairs on the U s. National Security Council
Speaker 1: in like nineteen sixty nine. How do you accrue so
Speaker 1: much responsibility as somebody in their mid twenties. Well, I
Speaker 1: was fortunate. I was fortunate enough. First of all, they
Speaker 1: got a good education. And second, I used the time
Speaker 1: I was going to undergraduate and graduate school to spend
Speaker 1: as much time as I could in the practical real world.
Speaker 1: So I spent one year living in Africa doing research
Speaker 1: on economic development. I spent several summers as a summer
Speaker 1: intern in Germany, where I picked up not only German,
Speaker 1: but was in the middle of the Cold War, went
Speaker 1: back and forth to Berlin several times, and I was
Speaker 1: also a summer intern at States, so I learned both
Speaker 1: the substance of the issues but also was able to
Speaker 1: accrue practical experience. And I also was very enthusiastic about
Speaker 1: getting engaged in foreign policy, so I read all I
Speaker 1: could read and met as many people who were engaged
Speaker 1: in the process as I as I could. And I
Speaker 1: had a mentor, Enrique Center, who was very keen on
Speaker 1: giving young people more and more responsibility. If you talk
Speaker 1: on a tough assignment and you did it well, your reward,
Speaker 1: as he used to say, is to give you even
Speaker 1: more work and to see how well you did. And
Speaker 1: as you proceeded along working for him, you were given
Speaker 1: more and more responsibility, and if you did well, you
Speaker 1: were given more and more. Again, very interesting so tell
Speaker 1: us what it was like working with Kissinger. He is
Speaker 1: both a controversial and legendary figure who really looms large
Speaker 1: in the late twentieth century international world of relations. Yes,
Speaker 1: I think he really UH, and historians I think will
Speaker 1: come to the same conclusion was probably, and to a
Speaker 1: degree still is the premier diplomat of the second half
Speaker 1: of the twentieth century. Uh, in part because he was
Speaker 1: so actively engaged in Cold War diplomacy, in helping to
Speaker 1: deal with difficult problems with the Soviet Union, and part,
Speaker 1: of course, because he was so actively engaged in opening
Speaker 1: American relations with China, and in part also because he
Speaker 1: really was able, as as George Kennon was before him,
Speaker 1: to map out a strategy for increasing American influence in
Speaker 1: various parts of the world. For instance, I participated with
Speaker 1: him in the Middle Eastern strategy to deal with the
Speaker 1: nine seventy three or and to achieve a peaceful resolution
Speaker 1: of that and many other Middle Eastern issues. That was
Speaker 1: a very hot topic at that point, So I was
Speaker 1: able to travel with him and work with him in
Speaker 1: those areas. So he was involved in virtually every major
Speaker 1: foreign policy issue during that period, and also was actively
Speaker 1: engaged with the other leaders um Masitone Joe and Lyone
Speaker 1: Shall the Gaul kind of run at an Hour, and
Speaker 1: numerous other leaders of that period. So he played an
Speaker 1: active strategic role, in part because he had actually taught
Speaker 1: at Harvard diplomacy of another era, but in part because
Speaker 1: he was so actively engaged in the issues of the time,
Speaker 1: and it was very good at connecting the dots, at
Speaker 1: developing strategy, not just dealing with issues at huck Or
Speaker 1: on a transactional basis, but on a strategic basis. And
Speaker 1: he also was very, very willing to be a mentor,
Speaker 1: so he would take younger people along. He had n't
Speaker 1: able you to participate in meetings with foreign heads of
Speaker 1: state uh in in a very intimate way and an intimate, intimate,
Speaker 1: thoughtful discussions, So he enabled you to learn not just
Speaker 1: more about the substance, but the people who were making
Speaker 1: policy and how diplomacy was actually conducted on a real
Speaker 1: time basis. So I was a teenager during Nixon's second term,
Speaker 1: and I have a very vivid recollection of both the
Speaker 1: Middle East Peace plan that's Kissinger spearheaded and the Cold
Speaker 1: War discussions and debates and how that move things around
Speaker 1: with the Soviet Union. I suspect the most consequential thing
Speaker 1: that Kissinger did was open relations with China. And I
Speaker 1: also think people wildly underestimated the future impact of that
Speaker 1: act of diplomacy. You were on that team that helped
Speaker 1: to open up China. Tell us a little bit about
Speaker 1: that team, and did you have any idea, how eck
Speaker 1: aonomically consequential that would end up being a few decades
Speaker 1: in the future. I really didn't envisage the kind of
Speaker 1: rapid development that would occur in China in the course
Speaker 1: of really three or four decades. Um. I knew it
Speaker 1: was consequential, um. And I actually knew something about the
Speaker 1: Chinese economy because living in Africa, there were a number
Speaker 1: of Chinese who were studying at the University of College
Speaker 1: University College in Darith Salam, Tanzania, where I was, and
Speaker 1: I got to know them and learned as much as
Speaker 1: I could. Because Americans couldn't go to China then, it
Speaker 1: was or trade with China or invest in China. So
Speaker 1: so getting to know a little bit about the Chinese
Speaker 1: economy through these individuals actually helped me later on when
Speaker 1: I was doing papers on how we could normalize to
Speaker 1: a degree at least UM economic relations with China. But
Speaker 1: I never dreamed that it would progress so rapidly. I
Speaker 1: had a lot of discussions with UM leaders during that period,
Speaker 1: and particularly in the middle period, with dung Cha Peng,
Speaker 1: who is really the person who led the economic reforms
Speaker 1: of China, and Ju Ranji, who was the premier they
Speaker 1: in the really started the reform process, and I figured
Speaker 1: it would grow economically. I mean, there was a lot
Speaker 1: of poverty. Thirty million people or so maybe more starved
Speaker 1: to death during the during the Cultural Revolution, and uh
Speaker 1: so I was very clear about the intentions of the
Speaker 1: leaders at that point to enable China to grow and
Speaker 1: to bring millions of people out of poverty, which Dunha
Speaker 1: Peng and his colleague were intent on doing. But the
Speaker 1: technological advances were, from my point of view, breathtaking, and
Speaker 1: I'd go there one year and you'd see a few
Speaker 1: modern buildings and a few new laboratories dedicated to AI
Speaker 1: or other types of scientific advances. But to see how
Speaker 1: quickly China has become a competitor with the United States
Speaker 1: and the most advanced technologies of our times was something
Speaker 1: that I never anticipated. And even the most optimistic Chinese
Speaker 1: reformers in the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties anticipated they
Speaker 1: would grow, anticipated they would improve living standards, and anticipated
Speaker 1: that they would become an active player in the global scene.
Speaker 1: But I think very few could have imagined the dramatic
Speaker 1: technological capabilities of the country as we see now. And
Speaker 1: it was because China had had a very bad century
Speaker 1: where they but they called the Century of Humiliation, where
Speaker 1: they had really been divided into a lot of fragmentation,
Speaker 1: and they really didn't make much economic progress. And as
Speaker 1: a nation and certainly as a leadership, they were determined
Speaker 1: not to miss what they call their fourth Industrial Revolution,
Speaker 1: which is the high tech revolution. So they put a
Speaker 1: lot of money into new technology. They focused very, very
Speaker 1: heavily on advanced education. They sent a lot of students
Speaker 1: abroad a party to the United States to learn advanced technology.
Speaker 1: And I can remember one conversation that really summarized it
Speaker 1: all in my mind, and that is Dung Shaping, who
Speaker 1: was very advanced in his thinking, had a number of
Speaker 1: foreigners come and talk and he was able to share
Speaker 1: his views and we were able to ask him questions,
Speaker 1: and at one point, I said, you know, I was
Speaker 1: very impressed with how much economic progress you've made in
Speaker 1: the last five years. He so he tapped me on
Speaker 1: the on the leg and said, young man, he said,
Speaker 1: that was where it was in my thirties. Um, we
Speaker 1: have done something that will have an even greater impact,
Speaker 1: and that is Um, I've enabled lots of Chinese to
Speaker 1: study abroad, which they could not do before. They couldn't
Speaker 1: study in the United States. They could study elsewhere, but
Speaker 1: they went to the United States, and when they come back,
Speaker 1: they will change China. So he placed a great deal
Speaker 1: of emphasis on education and the ability to go send
Speaker 1: students to other countries to learn advanced technologies, and how
Speaker 1: advanced economies were performing, and how you could incentivize people
Speaker 1: to develop new technologies and advanced advanced from an industrial
Speaker 1: point of view as well, and anyone could have a
Speaker 1: bad century. Gives you a sense of their concept of
Speaker 1: long term planning, which which leads me to a question.
Speaker 1: You know, we've in the twentieth century we looked at
Speaker 1: the United States as a leader both in economics and
Speaker 1: technology and and rule of law and structure. But given
Speaker 1: how rapidly China has advanced, let's flip that script and
Speaker 1: ask what lessons can the US learned from China? What
Speaker 1: what should we be taking from their playbook, be it
Speaker 1: industrial policy or infrastructure, or what do you see as
Speaker 1: something that is transferable back to the US. It's a
Speaker 1: great question, and let me start uh the answer with
Speaker 1: something that I learned or picked up in China after
Speaker 1: the financial crisis that was really general aided from the
Speaker 1: United States. And one of the senior leaders made interesting
Speaker 1: he said, we have been operating under the assumption that
Speaker 1: you were the teacher and we were the student, and
Speaker 1: we had a lot to learn from you about running
Speaker 1: our financial system and running our economy. Then he paused
Speaker 1: and said, now we're no longer so sure that you're
Speaker 1: a very good teacher or that you're doing a very
Speaker 1: good job in addressing your economic issues, because of this
Speaker 1: major financial crisis which occurred and really rocked the American economy.
Speaker 1: So they at that point they came to declusion that
Speaker 1: perhaps they ought to be more active in developing their
Speaker 1: own models of thinking about finance and about other things,
Speaker 1: and not rely as much on the United States. The
Speaker 1: second thing is that they really did what we did
Speaker 1: so well in the early part of the nineteen fifties
Speaker 1: particularly after Sputnik and we realized we were compete with
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was never as
Speaker 1: formidable a competitor as China in as many ways as
Speaker 1: we find China is able now to compete. So what
Speaker 1: are what are the United States do? We spend a
Speaker 1: lot of money on education, particularly high technology education. We
Speaker 1: brought the best and the brightest from our own society
Speaker 1: and from abroad to the United States to work in
Speaker 1: there and studying our university. We put a lot of
Speaker 1: money into infrastructure, of the Eisenhower Highway Program being one example.
Speaker 1: And we mobilize the American people behind the virtues of
Speaker 1: science and the virtues of technology scientists were regarded is
Speaker 1: really the key to developing the technology that enable us
Speaker 1: to prevail in the Cold War. What the Chinese are
Speaker 1: doing is almost the same thing. They've put hu amounts
Speaker 1: of money into research. We put money into our national labs.
Speaker 1: They put money into a whole range of research facilities
Speaker 1: that they have. They put a lot of money into
Speaker 1: their educational system. Chinese kids work very hard. They don't
Speaker 1: go out at night and have social events. They go
Speaker 1: home and study because they know that's not only good
Speaker 1: for their country, but it's good for them. It helps
Speaker 1: them advance. Predicting rural kids who we're not used to
Speaker 1: the city home to the cities, go to big universities
Speaker 1: and work very hard to advance. They brought in people
Speaker 1: from all over the world to do research, to go
Speaker 1: to a Chinese lab. There are lots of Chinese, but
Speaker 1: they're also people from other countries. They have become a
Speaker 1: very uh focused society on advancing and playing a leadership
Speaker 1: role in the in the century on the advanced technologies
Speaker 1: like AI or quantum computing or five G or other things.
Speaker 1: So they have really sort of learned the technology is
Speaker 1: the key to their economic strength and their economic strengths
Speaker 1: and their ability to prevail in these new technologies would
Speaker 1: strengthen their credibility as a leading country in the world.
Speaker 1: And those are the kinds of lessons that they have
Speaker 1: learned and the kinds of things that you hear them
Speaker 1: talk about every time you hear President's hut and Paying
Speaker 1: or any of the other leaders of China talk. They're
Speaker 1: talking about technology, about competitiveness, about growth, improving their society.
Speaker 1: And they've brought four million people plus probably closer to
Speaker 1: I learn a many of people out of poverty, which
Speaker 1: they regarded as almost a given in the nineteen fifties,
Speaker 1: and given them opportunities, economic opportunities that would have been
Speaker 1: very hard to envisage in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties.
Speaker 1: So they've gotten a lot of credit for that for
Speaker 1: a more equitable society. Although there are still a lot
Speaker 1: of inequities, they're attempting to deal with those, and technologically
Speaker 1: they're advancing at a very rapid rate. They're very formidable competitors,
Speaker 1: and education, I think is the dominant factor that enables
Speaker 1: them to be that. Quite quite interesting. Let's talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about your time at Goldman. Was that your
Speaker 1: first job after leaving government service? It was. I had
Speaker 1: been in the government starting in my mid twenties, where
Speaker 1: I worked for Kissinger as you mentioned earlier, and had
Speaker 1: a number of other jobs, and then I went in
Speaker 1: nineteen two from the government to Goldman SAX. So it
Speaker 1: was really my first private sector job. Yes, So tell
Speaker 1: us what you did, what was your role and how
Speaker 1: did that progress. Well, I started out working with a
Speaker 1: team that was focused primarily on developing countries. Since I'd
Speaker 1: spent a fair amount of time in the developing world,
Speaker 1: particularly in Africa, and over a period of time I
Speaker 1: moved along the track of developing my own experience in
Speaker 1: investment banking um in trying to identify the global trends
Speaker 1: that were affecting or would in the future effect the market.
Speaker 1: And gradually was able to move along the path and
Speaker 1: became vice chairman for Goldman Sacts International and was able
Speaker 1: to travel around China being one destination, but the Middle
Speaker 1: East was another. Spent a lot of time in in Europe,
Speaker 1: and spent a lot of time in various other parts
Speaker 1: of Asia. At that point when I first came to Goldman,
Speaker 1: Goldman was not a very international firm. Really, None of
Speaker 1: the American the big American firms in the investment banking
Speaker 1: world had a very large international presence. Some did, but
Speaker 1: Goldman was really served at the very early stages. And
Speaker 1: John Whitehead and John Weinberberg, who were the two co
Speaker 1: chairs of the firm, were very determined. Both of them
Speaker 1: had been in World War Two, and both of them
Speaker 1: had seen the outside world, and they felt that Goldman
Speaker 1: should be much more proactive in developing its knowledge and
Speaker 1: its business relationships internationally, in part to be able to
Speaker 1: serve international clients, but in part because American investors were
Speaker 1: increasingly interested in international markets and wanted to know what
Speaker 1: was going on. So I was at my last government job,
Speaker 1: which was Assistant Secretary of State, as you pointed out,
Speaker 1: at that point in the early eighties, and Henry Kissinger
Speaker 1: and Bob McNamara, we're both on the Golden Advisory Board,
Speaker 1: and they recommended to John Whitehead and John Weinberg that
Speaker 1: here was a guy who was getting ready to leave government,
Speaker 1: had a lot of international experience, so you should bring
Speaker 1: him on and help him, um give him the sort
Speaker 1: of support he needs to help build out the capabilities
Speaker 1: of Goldman internationally. So I traveled a lot throughout the
Speaker 1: world identifying opportunities, but also working with a growing number
Speaker 1: of people on our team who were being stationed in
Speaker 1: various parts of the world to serve local clients and
Speaker 1: serve American clients who wanted to know more about what
Speaker 1: was going on in these parts of the world. Quite
Speaker 1: quite interesting. You've been an eyewitness to how international finance
Speaker 1: has developed and evolved and changed over time. What are
Speaker 1: some of the most significant changes we we obviously already
Speaker 1: started talking about China, but what else is out there
Speaker 1: that people should have on their radar as changes in
Speaker 1: international finance that are really going to resonate in the
Speaker 1: coming years. Well, that's one of the interesting challenges that
Speaker 1: we have in this globalized world of today because for
Speaker 1: part of this period there were a series of international crises.
Speaker 1: One of them started in Asia, one of them started
Speaker 1: in Mexico, one of them started in the United States
Speaker 1: um and the problem American investors had was to particularly
Speaker 1: with events that were occurring abroad, was figuring out what
Speaker 1: was happening and figuring out how it would affect uh
Speaker 1: the American market and increasingly Americans who wanted to diversify
Speaker 1: their portfolios. We're investing in various other parts of the world,
Speaker 1: particularly first Europe, which is a market or set of
Speaker 1: markets that they knew, and most Americans had visited Europe
Speaker 1: and had a good sense that if you wanted to
Speaker 1: diversify globally, Europe was the place to start, along with Japan.
Speaker 1: But then which had a booming market for a number
Speaker 1: of years. We shouldn't forget now it's the growth rate
Speaker 1: to slow down, but it's market for a long time
Speaker 1: was really steaming. And then m the notion of investing
Speaker 1: developing countries began to take hold, and first with the
Speaker 1: banks who were making more and more loans to emerging economies,
Speaker 1: and then individual investors or foundations or high net worth
Speaker 1: individuals families were beginning to diversify into the developing world.
Speaker 1: So that was really one of the changes. When I
Speaker 1: first started out of Goldman, there was very little UH
Speaker 1: interest in international markets, very little exposure to international markets,
Speaker 1: and international markets had very little impact on the United States.
Speaker 1: Over the course of the time I was there, and
Speaker 1: subsequently since I've left left, the exposure has been far greater.
Speaker 1: Events abroad have had a far greater impact on our
Speaker 1: own market, and the notion of diversification has become an
Speaker 1: increasingly powerful one for h for various portfolios, and just
Speaker 1: for knowing what's going on in the world. So let's
Speaker 1: stick with um Goldman Sachs and various governments officials who
Speaker 1: have moved fluidly back and forth between government and private sector.
Speaker 1: I don't think there's another firm in finance that understands
Speaker 1: the importance of government action and how to both anticipate
Speaker 1: and shape it better than Goldman Sachs. What is the
Speaker 1: secret of their success? They really have put together a
Speaker 1: tremendous track record in that area. It's a it's a
Speaker 1: very interesting question. It really impart is a tradition UH
Speaker 1: at Goldman that was there well before I joined the firm. UH.
Speaker 1: John Weinberg and his father, Sydney Weinberg were both very
Speaker 1: actively in off them providing financial support and financial advice
Speaker 1: to the government during World War Two. Joe Fowler, who
Speaker 1: was the Sectary of the Treasury, came to Goldman Sachs
Speaker 1: after he was Treasury secretary. UM, We've seen a number
Speaker 1: of other people like Bob Rubin who was a Goldman
Speaker 1: and then became Treasury secretary. So we've had people come
Speaker 1: from the government and and and go to Goldman Sachs afterwards.
Speaker 1: And we've had people that myself included I was in
Speaker 1: the government and then came to Goldman Sachs. And then
Speaker 1: there numerous people at Goldman who after they leave Goldman
Speaker 1: go to the government. I think in part as they
Speaker 1: get developed experience at Goldman and the kinds of issues
Speaker 1: that the government has to deal with, particularly during a
Speaker 1: financial crisis, but also in dealing with financial markets. And
Speaker 1: they also are people who I want to give back
Speaker 1: They've had their experience in the financial sector in New
Speaker 1: York and have done reasonably well, and they feel that
Speaker 1: in their next life, rather than sit back and retire,
Speaker 1: they can bring some of their experience to bear um
Speaker 1: in working for the government. And I think that back
Speaker 1: and forth movement is is a very um important part
Speaker 1: of the culture of Goldman. Some other firms have this too,
Speaker 1: but I think Goldman really started the tradition really during
Speaker 1: World War Two with Goldman people working in Washington to
Speaker 1: support the war effort. M really really quite interesting and
Speaker 1: and you have been able to move fluidly back and
Speaker 1: forth between government and private sector. How have you found
Speaker 1: that process and what are some of the risks and
Speaker 1: rewards of going back and forth like that. You know,
Speaker 1: when I was in the government, I really did not
Speaker 1: did not have a very deep knowledge of financial markets
Speaker 1: in New York. I had a number of friends with
Speaker 1: whom I'd going to school and or developed over a
Speaker 1: period of time, who were working in the New York
Speaker 1: financial institutions. And we're working for corporations too, because obviously
Speaker 1: they play a very big role in this process. So
Speaker 1: when I was asked to join Goldman Sex, I made
Speaker 1: a very strong point of visiting Washington on a very
Speaker 1: regular basis and meeting with people with whom I had
Speaker 1: worked before while I was in Washington and trading thoughts
Speaker 1: on what was going on in financial markets, and they
Speaker 1: were in turn conveying their thoughts on what was going
Speaker 1: on in government and how the government saw economics and
Speaker 1: the financial world. So it was those those personal relationships
Speaker 1: I think are very important and often underestimated. When the
Speaker 1: relationships you develop when you're in your twenties and thirties,
Speaker 1: no matter where you are, whether you're in the government
Speaker 1: or you're in a corporation or you're in a financial
Speaker 1: institution in New York, you tend to keep those relationships up.
Speaker 1: They build a level of confidence between you and and
Speaker 1: others in Washington and elsewhere in the country. But the
Speaker 1: other part of it that's interesting is you also build up,
Speaker 1: extremely particular when you're in the government, extremely close relations
Speaker 1: with people at your level, um in other governments around
Speaker 1: the world. So um, your meetings with Japanese and Germans
Speaker 1: and French and Brits and saudiast and many others, and
Speaker 1: over time, not at that point, but later Chinese and others.
Speaker 1: So you developed not only these linkage is at a
Speaker 1: young age with between New York and Washington, and New
Speaker 1: York and the business community in Washington, in the business community,
Speaker 1: but you developed similar kinds of relationships at this relatively
Speaker 1: young age with people in other countries, and those relationships
Speaker 1: helped to build a level of confidence. So you can
Speaker 1: pick up the phone two years later and talk to
Speaker 1: them about a problem. And particularly when you're in a crisis,
Speaker 1: you want to know who to call, who to talk to,
Speaker 1: who's going to be making decisions at the other end
Speaker 1: of the line. And as you advance in your career,
Speaker 1: those relationships get stronger. You see these people, you talk
Speaker 1: to them, and you have that level of confidence that
Speaker 1: you've developed in an early age, and that really sort
Speaker 1: of propels you onwards to develop more relationships, more level,
Speaker 1: more degrees of confidence over the course of your career.
Speaker 1: And I still to this day keep up with phone
Speaker 1: calls with people in China or Britain or France or
Speaker 1: various other parts of the world when something occurs, or
Speaker 1: they'll call me and say, well, what do you think
Speaker 1: of what's going on in Washington? What do you think
Speaker 1: of what's going on in financial markets? So these personal
Speaker 1: relationships are extremely important, and it's important, prickly for younger
Speaker 1: people who are now moving up or are just starting
Speaker 1: out to develop develop those personal relationships and those personal
Speaker 1: confidences over a period of time, because they really do
Speaker 1: become very valuable at that point, but even more so
Speaker 1: as your career advances, and they help your career advance,
Speaker 1: but they also help you understand the world a lot
Speaker 1: better than if you live in a bubble. So, Bob,
Speaker 1: you returned to public office in two thousand and nine
Speaker 1: as Under Secretary of State for Economic and Business and
Speaker 1: Agricultural Affairs in the Obama administration. What made you decide
Speaker 1: to go back to government service And tell me a
Speaker 1: little bit about that period, right as we were dealing
Speaker 1: with the worst of the Great Financial Crisis. Well, I've
Speaker 1: been in the government. Uh So, the years I've spent government,
Speaker 1: we're during the Cold War, UM under various administrations, and
Speaker 1: then UM and then after the Cold War dealing with
Speaker 1: some of the Middle East issues. But I I saw
Speaker 1: in in two thousand nine that we were on the
Speaker 1: brink of or when the process of developing a new
Speaker 1: world order. There's a post Cold War order, and we
Speaker 1: didn't know what it was going to look like. But
Speaker 1: we knew that the old order was changing or had changed,
Speaker 1: and the new order had yet to be created, and
Speaker 1: I thought there was this was a very interesting time
Speaker 1: to participate in that process. Um. Second, Um, I had
Speaker 1: always thought that the job of Undersecretary of State was
Speaker 1: a thrilling job where you had the opportunity to look
Speaker 1: at the entire range of economic issues, international economic issues
Speaker 1: in particular that the country faced and helped to shape
Speaker 1: American policy during that period and have and have an
Speaker 1: impact on the global environment for the next decade or
Speaker 1: two to come. Third, I'd known Hillary Clinton for a
Speaker 1: numbers and had a very developed a very good relationship
Speaker 1: with her, and therefore was was was UM eager to
Speaker 1: when she asked me to do that job, to to
Speaker 1: do it, and I found that it was very exciting
Speaker 1: in terms of the ability to look at how the
Speaker 1: world was changing and play a constructive role in helping
Speaker 1: to change it. I had been the financial markets, the
Speaker 1: financial world for twenty years. I thought, this is an
Speaker 1: opportunity to really make a contribution to my country and
Speaker 1: to our foreign policy and to the global order of
Speaker 1: the of the twenty first century, and to UM get
Speaker 1: back and engage in the kind of issues that UM
Speaker 1: that I royed and found exciting. UH. John McCain had
Speaker 1: the statement, it's really exciting and and a very positive
Speaker 1: feeling to be in the arena, and I felt this
Speaker 1: was a good way of not only being in the
Speaker 1: arena arena, but making the contribution to my country and
Speaker 1: the world UM by going back in the government. M wow,
Speaker 1: quite fascinating. Let's talk a little bit about your new role.
Speaker 1: You've been at Tina Mine Advisors for a couple of
Speaker 1: years where you're managing director. Tell us what they do
Speaker 1: and what your roll at the firm is. Well. I
Speaker 1: when I left government, I spent a number of years
Speaker 1: UM with Kissinger Advisors, and then I was asked to
Speaker 1: join UM, a firm that I had been associated with
Speaker 1: because I was is on their UM Advisory Investment Advisory
Speaker 1: Committee for a number of years and that of his
Speaker 1: firm called Team Advisors. It's a UM my relatively new there,
Speaker 1: but the firm has been around for a while, and
Speaker 1: what impressed me about it was the quality of the
Speaker 1: people and the quality of service to clients. UH. The
Speaker 1: advisors of tetaman Um work alongside individuals families Endowmond's foundations
Speaker 1: to help them meet their financial goals, but also to
Speaker 1: help them UM in in other ways, one of which
Speaker 1: is to UM have a greater impact through investing in
Speaker 1: in in companies and in issues on subjects that they
Speaker 1: that they believe in in. UM emphasizes emphasizing first of all,
Speaker 1: for instance, the environment and other things of this of
Speaker 1: this nature. But it's the strength of the firm is
Speaker 1: that it is a relatively small firm compared to some
Speaker 1: of the very large Wall Street firms, and that there
Speaker 1: is a really strong relationship between the firm and the
Speaker 1: members of the firm and individual clients, UM and families.
Speaker 1: And it's in a way for some people like a
Speaker 1: family office, if they don't want to put together a
Speaker 1: family office, UM tetam and can help them perform all
Speaker 1: the functions of a family office or work with the
Speaker 1: family office that they have now and helped to deal
Speaker 1: with issues that they face in such offices. So UM
Speaker 1: tends to be family offices as opposed to let's say, institutions.
Speaker 1: They tend to be either individuals high net worth individuals
Speaker 1: or institutions or family offices. Yes, it's really all three.
Speaker 1: And your role in some cases endowments, right, So I'm
Speaker 1: going to imagine your role is sort of big picture,
Speaker 1: macro overview of what's going on in the world, or
Speaker 1: do you get more granular than that. Well, I try
Speaker 1: to do both. I UM the team of people that
Speaker 1: is extrict of extremely high quality, and they have people
Speaker 1: who are experts in investment UM and financial markets and
Speaker 1: trusts and UH planning help people plan for their financial futures.
Speaker 1: And we have offices really throughout the country and Western Europe.
Speaker 1: So what I do is work a lot with those
Speaker 1: regional offices in this country and abroad. I also work
Speaker 1: with the individual clients of the firm, particularly those who
Speaker 1: are interested in what's going on internationally and what the
Speaker 1: impact will be on their portfolios or what's coming down
Speaker 1: the road, you know, what are the what are the
Speaker 1: issues that are being UM developed around the world that
Speaker 1: could have an impact on them or their or their portfolios.
Speaker 1: And then I also work with the firm and management
Speaker 1: of the firm on various changes that are going on
Speaker 1: prickly using my experience in Washington, but also using my
Speaker 1: experience internationally. So I work both with individuals with foundations,
Speaker 1: with family offices but also on longer term strategic issues
Speaker 1: that the firm or clients of the firm are likely
Speaker 1: to face. So one of the things I've been hearing
Speaker 1: from a variety of high net worth individuals and family
Speaker 1: offices is just how challenging the macro picture is today.
Speaker 1: It seems there are a lot of cross currents and
Speaker 1: a lot of black swans. And how do you frame
Speaker 1: the state of the world today when you're advising a
Speaker 1: family office. Well, I think what you what you need
Speaker 1: to do is um emphasize that there are a lot
Speaker 1: of uncertainties that were really in a new environment with
Speaker 1: the Fed um constantly increasing its balance sheet with very
Speaker 1: large deficits of an unprecedented leptons that have been built
Speaker 1: up already and are being built up further as we speak.
Speaker 1: And what are the implications of those So I think
Speaker 1: one of the keys is agility, is trying to look
Speaker 1: ahead and be able to make decisions with UM a
Speaker 1: sense of what are the likely opportunities and the likely
Speaker 1: risks three months from now, six months from now, a
Speaker 1: year from now. So we utilize the formidable expertise of
Speaker 1: the firm, and there are a lot of extremely good
Speaker 1: people with whom I work, So it's it's certainly not
Speaker 1: just me alone, it's a whole group of people. But
Speaker 1: we try to acquaint our clients with with all the
Speaker 1: risks and all the opportunities in front of them and
Speaker 1: help them make adjustments in their portfolios that anticipate these
Speaker 1: kinds of risks or these kinds of opportunities. Is as
Speaker 1: we see them, So we try to instead of UM
Speaker 1: just sort of looking at the world as it is
Speaker 1: today and assuming it's going to stay the way it
Speaker 1: is today, try to get a sense of what is
Speaker 1: what is around the corner, what is over the horizon,
Speaker 1: how it roll affect their portfolio, and how they should
Speaker 1: position themselves to address these potential changes. Do you ever
Speaker 1: start to notice a pattern with similar questions bubbling up
Speaker 1: from lots of different clients and types of clients. I
Speaker 1: recall a couple of years ago getting a lot of
Speaker 1: question about crypto, and last year it was about, hey,
Speaker 1: how crazy is this market? This year it's been inflation.
Speaker 1: Do you see that? Or is it? Um? Pretty much
Speaker 1: everything goes well, it's really everything goes But now that
Speaker 1: you mentioned those three things, UM, crypto is really UM
Speaker 1: increasingly important. I mean all, virtually all countries are at
Speaker 1: one state or another looking at what crypto is going
Speaker 1: to mean financial markets and for the world, and different
Speaker 1: countries have different models, different companies are developing different models,
Speaker 1: So UM, it's something that you really can't avoid. You
Speaker 1: have to really develop a knowledge of of what's going on.
Speaker 1: We don't know how it's all going to turn out,
Speaker 1: but we do know that a lot of very bright
Speaker 1: people are working on this now and inevitably it's going
Speaker 1: to have um some perhaps a substantial impact on on
Speaker 1: the world and perhaps on individual plos and perhaps in
Speaker 1: the way markets operate. So knowing about it um and
Speaker 1: keeping these issues in the back of your mind or
Speaker 1: making financial decisions anticipating those are are is really is
Speaker 1: very important to sort of keep up with one this
Speaker 1: being one of the sort of advanced technological changes that's
Speaker 1: occurring in markets and in companies and in financial institutions.
Speaker 1: The second you've put your what are the inflationary implications
Speaker 1: of all these things that are going on. Traditionally it's
Speaker 1: been the case that when the Fed prints money and
Speaker 1: builds up a large balance sheet, and you see so
Speaker 1: much liquidity out there, in part as a result of
Speaker 1: what the government is providing in part as a result
Speaker 1: of FED policy, it's going to be inflationary. UM. So far,
Speaker 1: we have seen evidence of a certain amount of inflation,
Speaker 1: in part because of that, but more importantly because of
Speaker 1: by constraints and various impediments and the supply chain that
Speaker 1: are causing delays in such things as building supplies, uh,
Speaker 1: semiconductors for automobiles and a variety of things like that,
Speaker 1: and those two push up prices. So but we really
Speaker 1: haven't seen and then wages going up in certain areas
Speaker 1: as their labor shortages in certain sectors. But we really
Speaker 1: haven't seen this sort of runaway inflation that we had prinstance,
Speaker 1: straying the Paul volcre arab that he's so courage was
Speaker 1: able to deal with so UM. I think we're keeping
Speaker 1: an eye on this as our most investors, but the
Speaker 1: impact so far has not been that great. And if
Speaker 1: the FED um starts changing its policy a little bit um,
Speaker 1: which it sort of signals now, then the question is
Speaker 1: what does that mean for markets? So far, the markets
Speaker 1: have not regarded this as a serious thing. And we're
Speaker 1: very fortunate to have J. Powell is as FED chair
Speaker 1: who I've known for a long time, very sensible, thoughtful
Speaker 1: guy in and Gianet Yelling, who I work with in Washington,
Speaker 1: very sensible, thoughtful Treasury secretary. So I have a lot
Speaker 1: of confidence that the President is getting very good advice
Speaker 1: from those people as to what's happening and how to
Speaker 1: react to it. And I think is one reason the
Speaker 1: markets have reacted in a more um steady way than
Speaker 1: they might otherwise when you look at these numbers, because
Speaker 1: they see competent people who are running the economy, who
Speaker 1: have had experience and can deal with these issues, even
Speaker 1: though there's a lot of unknowns, and there are because
Speaker 1: we've never been in quite this situation before. Um, these
Speaker 1: are people who know what to do. I wrote a
Speaker 1: book years ago on happy for our wars called The
Speaker 1: Cost of the Price of Liberty. And we've had numbers,
Speaker 1: big deficits and big debts like this during World War Two,
Speaker 1: towards the end of World War Two, but we knew
Speaker 1: when the war ended those numbers would start coming down. Um.
Speaker 1: And now the question is how do you bring things
Speaker 1: back to a more normal environment. But we don't know
Speaker 1: how that's going to happen or what the implications are
Speaker 1: going to be. But you just have to keep your
Speaker 1: eyes open and watch and simplications are going to be
Speaker 1: for for markets and individuals and and for the global economy.
Speaker 1: So Wall Street very much as a fan of Jerome Powell,
Speaker 1: arguably Trump's most competent appointee. I think that's a fair statement.
Speaker 1: You want to handicap the odds of him getting reappointed
Speaker 1: or did the previous president not reappointing Janet Yellen sort
Speaker 1: of set a president that, Hey, when a FED chair
Speaker 1: comes live, when that when that seat is up to
Speaker 1: be reopened, the president gets to put his impremature on
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve by appointing his own chairman. I've long
Speaker 1: since given up the the handicapping of decisions on individuals
Speaker 1: in Washington, having lived there and participated there for a
Speaker 1: long time. In these kinds of decisions, it's very very
Speaker 1: hard to know my I would I would simply make
Speaker 1: the point that I think he is and the board
Speaker 1: are very competent people, and I do think that UM
Speaker 1: markets have a lot of trust in them, and uh
Speaker 1: and and leave it at that. What the president is
Speaker 1: going to do or not do, I'm is beyond my
Speaker 1: pay grade. Fair enough, so, by the time this broadcast,
Speaker 1: we should likely have an infrastructure bill passed in the
Speaker 1: United States. You have long been a very zealous advocate
Speaker 1: for both building and repairing infrastructure in the country. Tell
Speaker 1: us some of the things you think we should have
Speaker 1: done years, if not decades ago, and what do you
Speaker 1: like about what you see in the current infrastructure bill. Well,
Speaker 1: I think this is the best chance we've had in
Speaker 1: a long time of getting a really good infrastructure bill,
Speaker 1: because we need it for several reasons. One, first of all,
Speaker 1: we've we've for decades, I've been, as you correctly point out,
Speaker 1: arguing that are weak and deteriorating infrastructure is a huge
Speaker 1: hindrance to our economic outlook. And if you look around
Speaker 1: the world, the emphasis of China and many other countries
Speaker 1: on infrastructure has been one reason that they've been able
Speaker 1: to create a lot of jobs and b has made
Speaker 1: them more competitive. And see, you're a stronger country internationally
Speaker 1: if you have a strong economy domestically, and a key
Speaker 1: to a strong economy domestically is good infrastructure, roads, highways, telecommunications,
Speaker 1: and a variety of other factors. And the Chinese have
Speaker 1: understood this and at a good training system obviously is
Speaker 1: very important and modern airports. All these things are important
Speaker 1: to a strong economy, and as strong economy, as they say,
Speaker 1: is critical to your economic influence. It demonstrates your government
Speaker 1: is functionally able to operate in an effective way, and
Speaker 1: it strengthens your leadership because other countries themselves want to
Speaker 1: develop their own infrastructure capability, so that to me is
Speaker 1: very important. For the moment, we have an especially good opportunity.
Speaker 1: Interest rates are very low. There is a lot of
Speaker 1: bipartisan support, as we've seen on the Hill, particularly now
Speaker 1: and the recent Center votes for UH infrastructure, large scale infrastructure,
Speaker 1: and it is critical also to national security because as
Speaker 1: Eisenhower understood when he developed his Highway bill, you've got
Speaker 1: to be able to have a good infrastructure to keep
Speaker 1: up the mobility of people back and forth and build
Speaker 1: your own strength as an economy. So we need to
Speaker 1: do this now more than ever because we have the
Speaker 1: chance low interest rates. We need more jobs for people
Speaker 1: who have been laid off during the pandemic. We need
Speaker 1: to demonstrate to the rest of the world that our
Speaker 1: economy and our government can function on a bipartisan basis
Speaker 1: in an effective way. And we need also to deal
Speaker 1: with a backlog of unmet infrastructure needs that if we
Speaker 1: don't deal with them now, are just going to get
Speaker 1: worse and worse. So people say, well, you're you're leaving
Speaker 1: a large debt to the next generation. Maybe so, but
Speaker 1: if you don't do something now, you're leaving a deteriorating
Speaker 1: infrastructure to the next generation, which is going to hinder
Speaker 1: the ability to create jobs, and hinder our strength as
Speaker 1: a country and and make us a weaker economy later on.
Speaker 1: So now is the moment, and we ought to be
Speaker 1: doing this auto biopartisan basis to demonstrate that we can
Speaker 1: do something on a bipartisan basis that leaves the next
Speaker 1: generation better off, and a strong infrastructure would would do that.
Speaker 1: I've always hated the argument you're leaving a large debt
Speaker 1: to the next generation because it's so intellectually disingenuous. You're
Speaker 1: also leaving a massive infrastructure, a platform that the private
Speaker 1: sector can build on. You know, companies report earnings, they
Speaker 1: have to report both liabilities and assets. Debt is only
Speaker 1: half of the picture. And as you pointed out, interest
Speaker 1: rates are so low. So let me throw a curve
Speaker 1: ball at you. What do you think of financing a
Speaker 1: big infrastructure build out with a fifty year or a
Speaker 1: hundred year bonds. Well, I don't know about a fifty
Speaker 1: year hundred year bond. We're not really used to this,
Speaker 1: and the markets are not used to these kinds of
Speaker 1: things that do this thirty Well, it's hard for me
Speaker 1: to picture. But a sort of long term bond is
Speaker 1: to me very logical. It's the way corporations finance. They don't.
Speaker 1: They don't finance a new corporation with one with one
Speaker 1: year paper. They don't finance a new building, a new
Speaker 1: factory with one year paper. They normally take a longer
Speaker 1: term picture. They build. They build a factory today and
Speaker 1: then pay for it over a period of time when
Speaker 1: it starts increasing its returns, and they blame them the
Speaker 1: service the debt. We have to look at at the
Speaker 1: government in the same way, and that is and the
Speaker 1: Biden administration I think, is doing this, and that is
Speaker 1: the big bulk of the infrastructure building will take place
Speaker 1: in the next few years, and the repayment period will
Speaker 1: be of a much longer durace ten years, fifteen years,
Speaker 1: twenty years, something like that. Whichever, however, the Treasury decides
Speaker 1: to structure the bonds but I do think that the
Speaker 1: point that we're both trying to get at is we
Speaker 1: have a chance now to borrow long term at low
Speaker 1: rates and build a strong economy which will create a
Speaker 1: lot of jobs for future generations. And if the economy,
Speaker 1: as I believe it will, is strengthened by this infrastructure,
Speaker 1: it will leave opportunities for additional growth and make it
Speaker 1: easier to repay the debt. So we have to think ahead.
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things that we go back
Speaker 1: to China, we had teat them and to spend a
Speaker 1: lot of time trying to think ahead and what's going
Speaker 1: to happen now and what's going to happen in the future.
Speaker 1: One thing when you think about China is we're not
Speaker 1: just competing with the China of today. We're competing with
Speaker 1: a four thousand year old civilization and they are used
Speaker 1: to thinking long term. Um they and what they're doing
Speaker 1: now is they're they're they're spending money today on infrastructure,
Speaker 1: not just for the current generation, but for generations to come.
Speaker 1: We have to have a strategy that is not just
Speaker 1: focused or preoccupied with what happens today. It's what are
Speaker 1: we doing to make the economy stronger in the future.
Speaker 1: What are we doing to build up UH job capabilities
Speaker 1: for people who have lost their jobs over the long term,
Speaker 1: And that's what UM infrastructure will do. UM. We can
Speaker 1: be a much stronger economy five years from now if
Speaker 1: we invest today in the roads and the and the bridges,
Speaker 1: and the airports and the trains and the and the
Speaker 1: telecommunications infrastructure, all of which will make us more competitive,
Speaker 1: creating jobs today and making us more competitive not just
Speaker 1: for one year or two years, but for decades to come.
Speaker 1: Eyes and our understood that the so called Greatest Generation,
Speaker 1: and I believe it was a great generation that Tom
Speaker 1: Brokaw wrote about the fifties and sixties. UM. They were
Speaker 1: a great generation in part because of winning the war,
Speaker 1: in part because of what they did after the war,
Speaker 1: but in part because they left this country in a
Speaker 1: much stronger financial and economic position and physician in the world.
Speaker 1: Because of what they did. They fought ahead. And we
Speaker 1: have to think ahead, We have to have a long
Speaker 1: term perspective, and infrastructure is one of the critical ways
Speaker 1: of not only thinking ahead but acting UM in a
Speaker 1: bold way to make our country stronger and to create
Speaker 1: a much UH stronger capability of creating jobs and demonstrating
Speaker 1: our strength in the world, and a strong infrastructure program
Speaker 1: would do that. So so let's stick with that generation.
Speaker 1: Right after World War Two, the US implemented the Marshall Plan.
Speaker 1: We helped to rebuild pretty much all of Europe. We
Speaker 1: helped to re structure Japan and and create a platform
Speaker 1: for them to rebuild their economy, and we saw decades
Speaker 1: of unprecedented growth around the world. When I look at
Speaker 1: the state of that sort of policy, the closest thing
Speaker 1: I see to that is the China Built in Road initiative.
Speaker 1: What sort of plans are there for a new martial plan?
Speaker 1: Is the US participating on the global stage that way
Speaker 1: or have we seeded that leadership role to China. Well,
Speaker 1: it's certainly true that China is building in two ways. One,
Speaker 1: if you look at the infrastr ructure within China, it's
Speaker 1: it's remarkable. These fast trains and modern harbors and modern airports.
Speaker 1: I mean, the the and the telecommunication system is remarkable.
Speaker 1: They're rushing moving ahead toward five G and six G.
Speaker 1: We've got to be doing that too. We've got to
Speaker 1: be lead frogging the Chinese and developing our own capability
Speaker 1: in say five GEN, which you can do with the
Speaker 1: greater openness open radio access network around their various ways,
Speaker 1: we can really move dramatically ahead. And five G we're
Speaker 1: working on things like um quantum computing AI. These are
Speaker 1: always and then I'd say it's can demonstrate a our
Speaker 1: internal capability for technological advancement, but also our capability as
Speaker 1: a competitive country vis v not just China, but other
Speaker 1: countries that there are other countries that are competing very
Speaker 1: rapidly as well. So I think we've we we we've
Speaker 1: got to do that. I don't know the Belton Road
Speaker 1: Initiative UM does help, particularly Southeast Asian and Central Asia.
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get back to a
Speaker 1: Marshall plan because I think the willingness to spend money
Speaker 1: here UM it's really focused more on domestic than far
Speaker 1: and but if we do well domestically, we will strengthen
Speaker 1: our influence both in terms of a strong economy here
Speaker 1: and do better abroad. I do think we're also working
Speaker 1: more and more with the Japanese and working with other
Speaker 1: countries and what's known as the Quad Australia, Japan, India,
Speaker 1: and the United States to help build up infrastructure in
Speaker 1: in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. But I suspect that the
Speaker 1: main focus will be domestic and the other part of
Speaker 1: the of the of the Martial Plan that was so
Speaker 1: important was not just the money spent, but the fact
Speaker 1: that it enabled the European countries to work together um
Speaker 1: to figure out how to spend the money and to
Speaker 1: cooperate more to prevent a war like we had just
Speaker 1: been through in World War Two. And I think that
Speaker 1: one of the keys to the success of the next
Speaker 1: generation abroad will be countries like Osson and others working
Speaker 1: together for joint cooperation on infrastructure. And the United States,
Speaker 1: I think can play can play a role in that,
Speaker 1: and that would be that would be a big plus.
Speaker 1: So let's stay with domestic policy. The US, really since
Speaker 1: Eisenhower hasn't had much of an industrial policy. We're seeing
Speaker 1: some some inklings of that in the Binden administration, including
Speaker 1: a bit of a push for an electric charging station
Speaker 1: infrastructure for automobiles. What do you think of current lack
Speaker 1: of industrial policy. Is that something that the US needs
Speaker 1: to do to stay competitive with China. I think we
Speaker 1: tend to look in industrial policy somewhat differently from some
Speaker 1: of these other countries. But uh, the answer your question
Speaker 1: would be, we need a fundamental h collaboration between American
Speaker 1: companies and the US government, particularly in early stage research
Speaker 1: and development. We've we used to put a lot of
Speaker 1: money in the National Science Foundation, into the National Labs,
Speaker 1: into DARPA, into the sort of energy version of DARPA.
Speaker 1: So I do think that the that the Biden administration
Speaker 1: is really working uh increasingly and I think quite effectively
Speaker 1: towards a set of policies where the government supports industries
Speaker 1: that are critically important to US, and particularly high technology industries,
Speaker 1: but also other other companies like semiconductors where we have
Speaker 1: UM where we're going to need to make continue to
Speaker 1: make advancements in semiconductors to compete with various countries. If
Speaker 1: you if you look around the world, as I say,
Speaker 1: it's not just China, it's Taiwan with Taiwan Semiconductor, it's
Speaker 1: UM Korea and its other countries that are that are
Speaker 1: advancing pretty rapidly on on stomach conductors. So what we
Speaker 1: need to do, I think is put money, and I
Speaker 1: think this infrastructure program will do that. Put money, working
Speaker 1: with the private sector into advancements in various types of
Speaker 1: technology and various types of infrastructure which could be helpful
Speaker 1: in getting the government more active. We did. It worked
Speaker 1: quite well in the fifties where the government did play
Speaker 1: a great role in a lot of new technologies sprung
Speaker 1: from government collaboration with companies. And I think the government
Speaker 1: now needs to find new ways of collaborating with companies
Speaker 1: in an advanced areas of technology and infrastructure. And and
Speaker 1: I think that will happen if a bill, an infrastructure
Speaker 1: bill of the kind they're talking about, is passed. I
Speaker 1: think it does. We haven't had this for a long time,
Speaker 1: As you correctly point out, this would be the chance
Speaker 1: to do it. So, speaking of government and high tech companies,
Speaker 1: I was kind of surprised by China's crackdown on on
Speaker 1: their own tech companies and leadership. What do you make
Speaker 1: of that? It's it's been about a hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: billion dollars in market cap lost in the US of
Speaker 1: China companies listed here, and some people have bullpart died
Speaker 1: at about a trillion dollars potentially in a shares in China.
Speaker 1: What are we to make of this? Well, I think
Speaker 1: it's hard to know exactly what to make of it
Speaker 1: at this point. UM and I study China pretty carefully,
Speaker 1: and I would find it awfully hard to analyze what
Speaker 1: the government's doing and what the purposes are of some
Speaker 1: of the measures they have taken. I would simply make
Speaker 1: two to one this is something that's going on in
Speaker 1: the in the short term. We have to see whether
Speaker 1: it's a continuous process or just being done over the
Speaker 1: over the short term. And second, UM, the government of
Speaker 1: China does have a strong sense of national champions, and
Speaker 1: I think that if you look at the way China
Speaker 1: has developed vias national champions, these big companies have a
Speaker 1: lot of collaboration with the Communist Party of China. There's
Speaker 1: normally representative of of the CPCC um UM the Communist
Speaker 1: Party of China rating in these companies, and there are
Speaker 1: probably going to be UM there. I think there's a
Speaker 1: need really to wait and see what's happening in China
Speaker 1: before we come to any long term conclusions. So I'm
Speaker 1: really looking at this as as something that could well
Speaker 1: be a short term thing, and I wouldn't make any
Speaker 1: long term judgments. But this means because there is still
Speaker 1: a strong government support for innovation and UM and UH,
Speaker 1: it probably it's going to is going to continue. I
Speaker 1: don't know how long this current sauda is going to last.
Speaker 1: So when China first started doing this, I think it
Speaker 1: was last October or November. With Jack ma of Ali
Speaker 1: Baba clearly a national champion in China, people thought, hey,
Speaker 1: maybe this is a one off and Jack just got
Speaker 1: a little too big first bridges and China sending a
Speaker 1: warning shot. But it seems to be pretty aggressive across
Speaker 1: the board. Uh. It makes me wonder if if is
Speaker 1: China uninvestable, if you're not a Chinese citizen, can you
Speaker 1: as an outsider, as an American, put capital at risk
Speaker 1: in a country that doesn't seem to have the same
Speaker 1: sanctity of private property either contract laws, rule of law
Speaker 1: in general? How can an outsider invest in China with
Speaker 1: such a different set of experiences around private property. Well,
Speaker 1: this is the area where we have to wait and see.
Speaker 1: Because they have been if you read the speeches of
Speaker 1: President she and others, there is still a strong narrative
Speaker 1: of getting foreign companies to invest in China. Um they
Speaker 1: have they have really not said that they don't want
Speaker 1: foreigners to invest in China, and in fact they're trying
Speaker 1: to get more foreign companies too to invest in China.
Speaker 1: So I hesitate to try to make judgments now about
Speaker 1: what China is going to look like a year from
Speaker 1: now or two years from now in terms of its
Speaker 1: relationship with Chinese companies or foreign companies operating in China.
Speaker 1: I think China, as we were discussing earlier, has it
Speaker 1: takes a long term view of virtually any anything and everything.
Speaker 1: They're not they're not necessarily in most cases, short term players.
Speaker 1: They have a medium or a long term view. So
Speaker 1: I hesitate to jump to any conclusions along the lines
Speaker 1: of whether it's going to be a year from now
Speaker 1: an attractive place to invest or two years from now.
Speaker 1: I don't know, uh and but I but I do
Speaker 1: think that they understand two things. One that they do
Speaker 1: want to become more self dependent on certain kinds of
Speaker 1: technology and certain kinds of companies they're putting, for instance,
Speaker 1: and semiconductors. They're putting a lot of money into semi inductors.
Speaker 1: They're putting a lot of money, as we've just seen
Speaker 1: in the news, into AI for instance. UM So they
Speaker 1: want they don't want to be vulnerable to eruptions and
Speaker 1: supply for whatever reason from other countries. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: there is not in China a blanket. Um. They don't
Speaker 1: They don't like the I D coupling because they are
Speaker 1: in general because they are heavily dependent on foreign energy
Speaker 1: and foreign food and certain kinds of other foreign products.
Speaker 1: And they want to be able their companies want to
Speaker 1: be able to sell abroad. Um so. And and also
Speaker 1: they do have, and have had for quite some time,
Speaker 1: a desire to attract foreign capital. They've been a one
Speaker 1: American financial firms to operate to a much greater degree
Speaker 1: in China, and they want some of their companies to
Speaker 1: be able to invest more or produce more in the
Speaker 1: United States as they as they globalize. So there are
Speaker 1: different strains of of of thinking an action taking place
Speaker 1: in China. Uh So, I don't think we can simply
Speaker 1: come to one conclusion about what China is going to
Speaker 1: do a year from now, or two years from an
Speaker 1: hour or six months from now. So my preference is,
Speaker 1: having observed China and also observed what they're doing and
Speaker 1: have done over the last several years and months, is
Speaker 1: to wait and see before growing any long term conclusions.
Speaker 1: Quite fascinating, I know, I only have you for a
Speaker 1: certain amount of time. So let's jump to our favorite
Speaker 1: questions that we ask all our guests, starting with tell
Speaker 1: us what you were streaming during lockdown? What was keeping
Speaker 1: you entertained on Netflix or Amazon Prime or whatever. Well,
Speaker 1: during lockdown, I was I was actually I mean I
Speaker 1: and my colleagues that teetam and we're doing a lot
Speaker 1: with our client and trying to um keep keep up
Speaker 1: relations with them through zoom and phone calls and other things.
Speaker 1: So I was really a sort of a zoom. I
Speaker 1: was in a way glued to zoom for part of
Speaker 1: the time. UM. What I have done, UM and my
Speaker 1: wife and I as the result of the end of
Speaker 1: the day trying to relax a little bit, is to
Speaker 1: UM before we go to bed, watch a movie or
Speaker 1: an old sitcom or something like that. UM sort of
Speaker 1: peacefully in the day in a in a more in
Speaker 1: a more normal way. So those are the those are
Speaker 1: the kinds of things that that I have been doing.
Speaker 1: And I've tried during lockdown to stay in touch with
Speaker 1: friends and with colleagues and with people in other countries
Speaker 1: and see how they're doing. I think one of the
Speaker 1: things about lockdown is that you were dep physical interperson
Speaker 1: relations with other people. But the one thing I concluded
Speaker 1: was the more conversations you have with with friends and colleagues, um,
Speaker 1: people you work with, or friends you know and have
Speaker 1: known over the years, that you're you're keeping up that
Speaker 1: those human relationships, which to me were very important. And
Speaker 1: now that things are becoming a little bit more normal
Speaker 1: in some cases a lot more normal, um, individual relationships
Speaker 1: mean mean more and more. So those are the kinds
Speaker 1: of things I did did during lockdown. Very interesting. Tell
Speaker 1: us about your mentors. We obviously know some of the
Speaker 1: bigger names, but who helped shape your career, Well, that's
Speaker 1: that's interesting And I always, um think when ever anything
Speaker 1: good happens, I always think that I really owe a
Speaker 1: lot um to the mentors I had. Starting from when
Speaker 1: I was in college and graduate school, I had two
Speaker 1: or three teachers who I always was sort of turned
Speaker 1: to for advice and wisdom and friendship. When I started
Speaker 1: working in the government, Kissinger was a mentor, Brent Skullcroft
Speaker 1: was a mentor. Hensinger um and big Bridsinski were both
Speaker 1: heads of the National Security Council staff, and as was
Speaker 1: as was Scullcroft, and they were all they were all
Speaker 1: in various ways mentors. And then there were a number
Speaker 1: of people who were, uh, not necessarily at such a
Speaker 1: high level, but I had a lot of good friends
Speaker 1: who when I was working as a june your person,
Speaker 1: a summer intern in the state department or intern in
Speaker 1: Germany or elsewhere, I could turn to and they were
Speaker 1: you know, desk officers or assistant secretaries or deputy assistant secretaries.
Speaker 1: The people you could sit down and say, look, I've
Speaker 1: got an issue here, I've got something that's on my mind.
Speaker 1: I'd like to get your advice. And I think the
Speaker 1: thing I gave a commencement speech at UCSD years ago,
Speaker 1: um and about five years ago, and the points I
Speaker 1: made was, people say, don't sweat the small stuff. Um.
Speaker 1: The theme of my speech was, yes, sweat the small stuff. Um.
Speaker 1: If you do well at what you're doing, whatever the
Speaker 1: job is, and it may seem very small, um, you're
Speaker 1: going to be People are going to say this, this
Speaker 1: person really cares about what they're doing, They care about
Speaker 1: their job, and it really helps you to credibility and
Speaker 1: momentum um and um a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: and work with people, work with people as a team.
Speaker 1: You don't get anything done um alone in UM. In government,
Speaker 1: you need you need to have a team um of
Speaker 1: people working together, not just in your agency, but but
Speaker 1: all around the government and outside the government also, So
Speaker 1: I would I would often turn to various people who
Speaker 1: I knew or I'd worked with for advice and and mentorship,
Speaker 1: and that was to me very valuable. And I always
Speaker 1: think how generous they were to take their time for
Speaker 1: a young guy who has just come out of graduate
Speaker 1: school to help. I'm very very grateful to people like that,
Speaker 1: and and and in retrospect also I'm grateful I did
Speaker 1: some of the smaller things that for the moment it
Speaker 1: didn't seem particularly um interesting um or I didn't see
Speaker 1: what they were going to do for me. But over
Speaker 1: a period of time they have built UM. You build
Speaker 1: confidence in yourself by achieving things that are that are
Speaker 1: small in nature, and that enables you to have confidence
Speaker 1: that you can take on bigger things. I mean. One
Speaker 1: one example was when I was a summer intern in Germany.
Speaker 1: The this is still during the Cold War, and they
Speaker 1: were anxious that people use the autobon to drive from
Speaker 1: bond which was in the capital of West Germany, to Berlin.
Speaker 1: To preserve what they called Allied rights to use the
Speaker 1: Audubon and they really wasn't a very pleasant trip as
Speaker 1: you might imagine. So they said, are there any volunteers.
Speaker 1: I was a summer intern, and I said, yeah, I'll
Speaker 1: do it. So I would get they'd give you a
Speaker 1: little money for gas, and then you could go from
Speaker 1: Bond to West Berlin and it it enabled me to
Speaker 1: sort of understand the Cold War in ways traveling through
Speaker 1: East Germany um on an American paths so they didn't
Speaker 1: stop you, um and seeing what West Berlin looked like
Speaker 1: the wall, you could go into East Germany if you
Speaker 1: used your pass. So it was and when it came
Speaker 1: to working in Washington, I had a feel for how
Speaker 1: the Cold War was working, how it affected individuals. So
Speaker 1: doing the little things that other people may not want
Speaker 1: to do, and doing them well, or doing them with
Speaker 1: some interest in some enthusiasm really was very helpful to me.
Speaker 1: So and and and a number of people who were
Speaker 1: mentors said, oh, go do it. There will be something
Speaker 1: no one else is going to do it. Go do it,
Speaker 1: enjoy it, learn and and I did so. Um, I
Speaker 1: think you can you can almost always learn from someone
Speaker 1: else if you keep your ears open, your eyes open,
Speaker 1: and your willingness to interact. You can have mentors like
Speaker 1: a Kissinger or skull Croft or Braginsky, or you can
Speaker 1: have mentors who were uh in different levels, who are
Speaker 1: willing to spend time with you and teach you and
Speaker 1: help you learn. In those days, was the auto bon
Speaker 1: no speed limit? Were you were you able to well?
Speaker 1: It was This was the part of the autobon that
Speaker 1: was in Eastern Germany, so part of it was in
Speaker 1: West Germany, part in East Germany. But the there was
Speaker 1: no speed limit in East Germany. But the quality of
Speaker 1: the road was not so good. So um, you could
Speaker 1: you had no speed limit, but you didn't go to
Speaker 1: speed limit because there were a lot of potholes. Let's
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about books. What are some
Speaker 1: of your favorites and what are you reading right now? Uh? Um,
Speaker 1: what I'm reading right now, I'm reading more books about
Speaker 1: the future. That There's one book called The Future Is
Speaker 1: Coming Faster Than You Think, which which documents a lot
Speaker 1: of the changes that are going on and in in
Speaker 1: various tech areas of technology. I've just read a very
Speaker 1: interesting book called The Queen and the Sultan about relations
Speaker 1: between Britain and Inland at that point and the Middle
Speaker 1: East UM in under the reign of Queen Elizabeth the First,
Speaker 1: which is a very interesting history of of the Middle
Speaker 1: of Middle Eastern European or British relations UM. I have
Speaker 1: been reading a lot of American history, documentary American history
Speaker 1: UM Ulysses Grants memoirs which are fascinating and beautifully written.
Speaker 1: I read a wonderful book on Eisenhower and Marshall called
Speaker 1: Partners in War. Another book on the debate ongoing debatis
Speaker 1: to whether we should engage in World War Two between
Speaker 1: Franklin Roosevelt and Charles Lindberg, where Lindbergh was sort of
Speaker 1: the icon of the isolationists and Roosevelt was trying to
Speaker 1: get America prepared for for a war that he thought
Speaker 1: was coming, but America was not after World War One
Speaker 1: in a move to spend a lot of money and
Speaker 1: prepare itself for World War Two. Those are the Those
Speaker 1: are the are the are the books I've I've read
Speaker 1: UM last one of Those Angry Days, Yes, those Angry Days.
Speaker 1: That was That was exactly the title of the book, UM.
Speaker 1: And it was fascinating because a lot of the arguments
Speaker 1: that were used during those days are used now for
Speaker 1: UH internationalism versus intense nationalism. Yes, and the Queen and
Speaker 1: the Sultan is very interesting because I had no idea
Speaker 1: how much how close relations between Britain and the Middle
Speaker 1: East were, particularly the Ottoman Empire were during those days. UM.
Speaker 1: So it was it was very interesting. And I'm also
Speaker 1: trying to read more and more UM about how other
Speaker 1: societies have UM dealt with their internal issues health, health,
Speaker 1: societies change, because I think the United States is going
Speaker 1: to have to spend a lot more time addressing UM,
Speaker 1: this sort of angry partisanship that is emerging, UM, dealing
Speaker 1: with UM a number of inequities in our society. UM.
Speaker 1: So I'm sort of reading about how other societies have
Speaker 1: done this. Give us a title that it might be
Speaker 1: an example of that, or is clean and the Sultan
Speaker 1: one of those, Well, the Queen the Sultan is one
Speaker 1: of those, although that was more about Arabs and that
Speaker 1: more were about ut Ottomans and UM and England. But
Speaker 1: on in terms of internal relations. UM. It's mostly articles
Speaker 1: in for instance, The Atlantic and and and other magazines
Speaker 1: that are looking at some of these more contemporary issues.
Speaker 1: Really interesting stuff. What sort of advice would you give
Speaker 1: to a recent college grad who was interested in a
Speaker 1: career in either finance or international relations. Well, first of all,
Speaker 1: you're you're not going to this sort of goes back
Speaker 1: to the commencement address I gave. You're not going to
Speaker 1: remake the world in your first job. So spend time
Speaker 1: learning learning in two ways. One is learning about the
Speaker 1: subject that you're dealing with, and you've learned and most
Speaker 1: people picked up a lot of knowledge from universities or
Speaker 1: grad schools UM. And second, develop a a group of
Speaker 1: friends and colleagues who you can work with, who you
Speaker 1: can develop teamwork with, because, as I mentioned earlier, things
Speaker 1: are done by by teams and and UM and the
Speaker 1: more people you work with, the better your outcome is
Speaker 1: going to be. And you're also building relationships now and
Speaker 1: for the for the future that are going to Then
Speaker 1: I have friends today who I got to know in
Speaker 1: my twenties working in the government, and friends who I
Speaker 1: got to know in my thirties working in the financial world.
Speaker 1: So I think that those than the education, the teamwork
Speaker 1: that you teamwork skills you've developed, and the UM and
Speaker 1: the and the long term friendships and interactions that you've
Speaker 1: developed are extremely important. I've I find them true for me.
Speaker 1: I've i've I've valued them enormously, UM, and I think
Speaker 1: those with respect to specific jobs, I regarded the summer
Speaker 1: intern program in Washington as a great way of learning.
Speaker 1: You start out at the lowest possible level, but you're
Speaker 1: working with a number of people, and you learn about
Speaker 1: the State Department. You learn about what's going on in
Speaker 1: Germany from being an intern in Germany, or what other
Speaker 1: countries you you might be visiting or working in. And UM,
Speaker 1: if you're in the financial world, start out at you
Speaker 1: start at at a low level. You're an analyst, and
Speaker 1: you build from being an analyst. A lot of the
Speaker 1: people who run big firms today, we're analysts or runners
Speaker 1: running stock certificates from one company to another. You had
Speaker 1: took and did well in low level jobs and developed friendships,
Speaker 1: develop respect from others, and built from that. So, UM,
Speaker 1: you're not going to remake the world. At least I
Speaker 1: wasn't about to remake the world from from the beginning, UM,
Speaker 1: but I was determined to learn as much as I
Speaker 1: could so that I, UM would be able to contribute
Speaker 1: and learn and do other jobs as as my career.
Speaker 1: As my career advanced, and I would have a lot
Speaker 1: of friends who I could count on to talk to
Speaker 1: to get their perspectives as as I developed. There's a
Speaker 1: very good story in the book I mentioned partners in
Speaker 1: war Marshall and Eisenhower, where Marshall he didn't go to
Speaker 1: West Point. He went to v M I UM, So
Speaker 1: he didn't have the advantage of knowing of having the
Speaker 1: West Point club that that that those who went to
Speaker 1: West Point you had when they graduated, like MacArthur and others.
Speaker 1: But what he did do was, as he advanced in
Speaker 1: his career, kept a little book UM and he wrote
Speaker 1: down the names of people who he was impressed by,
Speaker 1: because at some point he made the decision that he
Speaker 1: was destined for future leadership of some kind. I don't
Speaker 1: think he necessarily envisaged that he was going to be
Speaker 1: the the main presidential advisor for World War Two, but
Speaker 1: he did anticipate that his career was going to advance.
Speaker 1: So he kept the names of people he was impressed by,
Speaker 1: and when he got higher and higher level jobs, he
Speaker 1: would call those people that he had met and they were,
Speaker 1: you know, strewn throughout the country in various military bases
Speaker 1: and call them and bring them to Washington and have
Speaker 1: them beyond his staff so or call them for their advice.
Speaker 1: So he understood the notion of the looking teamwork very
Speaker 1: very intriguing. And our final question, tell us what you
Speaker 1: know about the world of investing today that you wish
Speaker 1: you knew thirty years or so ago when you were
Speaker 1: first getting started. Um, I think one thing is this
Speaker 1: country is when it pulls together, h is very good
Speaker 1: at overcoming obstacles. A democratic system that is representative of
Speaker 1: the of the people and is able to um to
Speaker 1: harness the talents of the millions of Americans who are
Speaker 1: you know, working hard and and and want to participate
Speaker 1: in the growth the economy. That this country is able
Speaker 1: to grow very rapidly and is able to overcome lots
Speaker 1: of difficult obstacles. And I think that there are points
Speaker 1: in time when after a crisis, the middle of a crisis,
Speaker 1: when there are moments that I would say, Gee, this
Speaker 1: is going to last for a long time. It's going
Speaker 1: to be very hard for the US to recover. Every
Speaker 1: time that thought has crossed my mind, UM, I come
Speaker 1: to realize that two years, three years later, the economy
Speaker 1: has recovered, The country has recovered and is pulling together again.
Speaker 1: So I guess I come to the conclusion that optimism
Speaker 1: is a better strategy for addressing financial markets and addressing
Speaker 1: the economic outlook than pessimism, because in general the optimism
Speaker 1: is paid off better um than than taking the negative
Speaker 1: view of availed look. I will say, however, that in
Speaker 1: the current environment, UM, it requires and in those earlier
Speaker 1: environments as well, it requires really good leadership UM. And
Speaker 1: we have been very fortunate in this country for many
Speaker 1: decades to have leaders who come through and are are
Speaker 1: um able to take the reins when when the country
Speaker 1: needs them. Harry Truman, who would have thought that a
Speaker 1: relatively junior senator from Missouri who Roosevelt hardly knew UM
Speaker 1: was put in as vice president almost by accident and
Speaker 1: turned out to be, in my judgment, a really great president. UM.
Speaker 1: That we've we've seen this in the past, that that
Speaker 1: American that you get various people from various sectors, not
Speaker 1: just at the presidential level but other levels, who exercise
Speaker 1: leadership to help pull this country together again. And I
Speaker 1: I do think at point we need that more than
Speaker 1: ever to heal the pipe. The partisanship that tends to
Speaker 1: stop things from moving ahead. To deal with inequities, inequalities, discrimination,
Speaker 1: things of that sort, We've got we've got to demonstrate
Speaker 1: that America is capable of doing the kind of great
Speaker 1: things that it's done in the past, and that's gonna
Speaker 1: quite We've gotten into some bad patterns. We think about
Speaker 1: the future and how to bring this pull this country
Speaker 1: together again, not just for economic growth, but for social
Speaker 1: coesion and a more positive outlook for more and more
Speaker 1: people who have not been able to participate as fully
Speaker 1: in the prosperity or the well being of this country
Speaker 1: as as in the best quite quite fascinating. Thank you,
Speaker 1: Bob for being so generous with your time. We have
Speaker 1: been speaking with Bob Hormats. He is the former vice
Speaker 1: chairman of Coleman Sachs, legendary member of various administrations from
Speaker 1: Nixon to Reagan to the Obama administration, currently Managing director
Speaker 1: at Tina Men Advisors. If you enjoyed this conversation, well
Speaker 1: check out all of our previous interviews. You can find
Speaker 1: them at iTunes, Spotify, wherever finer podcasts are sold. We
Speaker 1: love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us at
Speaker 1: m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Give us a
Speaker 1: review at Apple iTunes. You can sign up from my
Speaker 1: daily reading list at ridlts dot com. Check out my
Speaker 1: weekly column on Bloomberg dot com sla USh Opinion. Follow
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Ridoltz. I would be remiss if
Speaker 1: I did not thank the Crack staff that helps put
Speaker 1: these conversations together each week. Paris Wald is my producer,
Speaker 1: Atika val Brond is my project manager. Tim Harrow is
Speaker 1: my audio engineer. Michael Batnick is my head of research.
Speaker 1: I'm Barry Ridhlts. You've been listening to Masters in Business
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio.