Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

Darrin: Jorge Newberry, what is the BIGGEST RISK? 

Jorge: To not learn from the past. And so that would be for me to look at my own past and the past of others and see what has happened, how they navigated it and, whether it makes sense to, or how that should influence my actions today. And I'll give you a real life example, is that you know the market. I've been through a couple of downturns in the real estate market and towards the end of every up cycle is like today. Today there are the lenders are, freely giving out money. It's very easy to qualify. They have these, you know, kind of almost subprime loans called non QM loans, and things have gotten very easy and that happens every time. At the top of the market that the money is free flowing, the pricing gets expensive, everything gets really competitive. I'm trying to buy loans and other people coming up with money pay more than me, And they could be the winner of the bid. But really, time will tell whether they're the winner, the loser. So today, I think the biggest risk today is ignoring the past and the fact that we are probably in a very overheated real estate market and just overheated economy, which is likely to turn down very turn down in the near future. It's hard to say exactly when it happens, but now would be the time to take some chips off the table and avoid or at least minimize that risk.