DHUnplugged Podcast

Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility. The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming. Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Election Day! Lots looking for split govy! - Glitch on the server - last CTP may be a problem - All about Musk - All of the time - gotta keep relevant - Employment Report - Can't stop never gonna stop! - New Server Up - lots of dev time on this migration... Market Update - Starting out November on the wrong foot - Who Will run in 2024? Markets trying to sniff out the playbook - China's stock market rally hard! - False hopes? - Incredible - FTX now needs bailout IMPORTANT UPDATE - TrendTracker: S&P 500 earnings are up 2.2% yr/yr in Q3, but they are now expected to fall 1% in Q4 - FactSet - "On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 9.1%. By September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 3.9%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -1.0%." - Earnings are currently expected to return to yr/yr growth in Q1 and accelerate throughout 2023, coming in at ~5% growth for the year (down from nearly 10% not long ago). - Those estimates still seem relatively optimistic/stale if the economy continues to soften as many economists expect. - Estimates for 2023 seem likely to come down further when companies will give initial guidance for the year with Q4 results in Jan-March. Earnings Slowing BUT...... - According to the historical trends during years of mid-term elections - Gridlock on Capitol Hill would be supportive of risk assets. Being forced to compromise serves to moderate the more extreme inclinations of each party, providing a more stable policy backdrop for investors. -- -The data supports this. - US equities have averaged annual gains of 12.9% when a president has had to contend with a split Congress. - This compares with a more modest increase of 6.7% when a Democratic president has controlled both chambers. Stock Trends - Mid-Terms Twitter Chaos - $8 Blue Checkmark - what is the point? - Flip flop - now $8 checkmark waits until after the election - Job cuts - massive headcount reduction (3,600- then a reversal a few days later - Blue Checkmark warning - imposters will get banned for life ---- So fake news and hate is okay, but just don't pose as Elon? What a joke! - Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody. - Advertisers pulling out "temporarily" - - Musk uses it as a great way to make excuse for layoffs - even though layoffs were happening before the advertiser embargo Crypto - And that was that - FTX has liquidity crunch after massive withdrawals - Sam Bankman Fried panics and sells all to Binance - Binance will back all transactions - Remember Fried stepped in on some of the "stablecoin" deals hoping that they could save them - Fried has been called the last resort for many crypto - the new JP Morgan -- - The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout - Major coins were getting crushed early in the day Tuesday on the liquidity scare - - > Rally with this news - - Seems that this whole industry has been build on hope and greed rather than any substantive math/finance Apple - Finally Succumbs - Taiwan's Foxconn, Apple Inc's biggest iPhone maker, said on Monday it was working to resume full production at a major plant in China's Zhengzhou as soon as possible that has been hit by COVID-19 curbs,